XOM · sample dossier
ExxonMobil Holdings Corporation
69/100
FreshGenerated Oct 17, 2026 · 10:00 AM UTC · 2 hours ago
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EquityExxonMobil Holdings CorporationXNYS
Decision context
HOLD
66% convictionScore 69 · Hold
A mixed picture — no strong reason to buy or sell right now.
The stock trades 30.7% above our estimate.
Current price
$178.98
Estimated value range
$95.16 – $149.07
Gap vs AlphaDog estimate
-30.7%
Narrow evidence — range rests on a single usable method.
The price is above our estimate, providing little valuation support.
Market context
Price
Price when available
Pick how far back the chart looks
1 month
+9.6%
3 months
+20.6%
6 months
+22.2%
1 year
+60.4%
Financial trajectory
Executive summary & thesis
ExxonMobil Holdings Corporation is an integrated energy company with a market capitalization of $735.95B, delivering $7.32 in free cash flow per share alongside a Debt/Equity ratio of 0.16.
- Latest quarter YoY EPS surged 112.2% alongside revenue growth of 44.1%, driving trailing twelve-month FCF to $7.32 per share.
- Solvency remains resilient with a conservative Debt/Equity ratio of 0.16 and a safe Altman Z-score of 4.23.
- Technical momentum is strong with a 60.4% 1-year return, supported by price trading above both MA50 and MA200.
- P/E multiple of 23.03 and EV/EBITDA of 11.40 trade at a premium to peer Chevron's 21.2 and 9.4.
- A low Piotroski F-score of 3/9 reflects weak underlying accounting and operational momentum.
- Modest return on assets of 5.5% limits structural profitability buffer during cyclical commodity pullbacks.
Things to keep in mind
- 1Base target implies 30.7% downsideView source
- 2P/E 23.0xView source
- 3P/E multiple of 23.03 and EV/EBITDA of 11.40 trade at a premium to peer Chevron's 21.2 and 9.4.View source
What to watch next
What changed recently
Why this rating
Score 69 · Hold
Data through
FreshJun 30, 2026
Factor profile
Growth-led profile
| Factor | Score |
|---|---|
| Quality | 43 out of 100 (Neutral). Business health — profits, returns, and consistency. Higher means a more durable company. |
| Growth | 100 out of 100 (Elite). How fast sales and earnings are rising. Higher means the business is expanding faster. |
| Value | 74 out of 100 (Strong). How cheap the stock looks for what you get. Higher means a more attractive price. |
| Safety | 52 out of 100 (Neutral). Balance-sheet cushion and fewer red flags. Higher means less risk of a nasty surprise. |
| Momentum | 90 out of 100 (Elite). Recent share-price trend. Higher means buyers have been in control lately. |
Another way to look at it
A calmer look at both sides of the ExxonMobil Holdings Corporation story
The prevailing consensus buy rating mistakes peak-cycle commodity pricing for sustainable structural compounding.
ExxonMobil trades at an aggressive P/E multiple of 23.0 and an EV/EBITDA of 11.4, which places its valuation in the 0th percentile against peers like Chevron at 21.2 and ConocoPhillips at 19.4. Despite headline second-quarter EPS jumping to $3.48 from $1.00 in the first quarter, the company's Piotroski F-score collapsed to a deeply distressed 3/9, signaling widespread operational and accounting deceleration beneath the surface. Furthermore, structural profitability is razor-thin, with an ROA of just 5.5% and a net margin of 9.1% leaving virtually zero buffer above the stated thesis breakers. Investors bidding the stock up 60.4% over the past year are extrapolating a cyclical surge just as October 16, 2026 Item 7.01 filings flag negative earnings impacts for the third quarter. Paying peak valuation multiples for low single-digit asset returns during cyclical earnings peaks represents an asymmetric risk to the downside.
Complete dismissal of the Piotroski F-score of 3/9, which flags underlying deterioration in operational cash generation, asset turnover, or working capital despite headline net margin reporting 9.1%.
Consensus defines the bear case strictly as formal regulatory impairment, ignoring the repeated Item 7.01 Regulation FD disclosures filed on October 16, 2026 detailing planned market-driven hits to third-quarter earnings.
Zero margin of safety relative to identified thesis breakers, given that current net margin (9.1%), current ROA (5.5%), and current Debt/Equity (0.16) sit exactly at the threshold breach levels.
Extrapolating a single-quarter earnings surge from $1.00 to $3.48 per share and 112.2% YoY EPS growth as structural improvement rather than mean-reverting commodity realization.
Valuing a cyclical integrated major at an EV/EBITDA of 11.4 and P/E of 23.0, commanding an unjustified premium over direct peer Chevron at 9.4 and 21.2, respectively.
Relying on a 60.4% 1-year price return and moving average momentum to validate safety when balance sheet capital deployment generates a modest 5.5% ROA.
Revenue growth YoY falls below 44.1%.
Gross margin contracts below 29.8%.
Cash after investing
See whether ExxonMobil Holdings Corporation still makes cash after it spends to grow.
- Revenue growth YoY falls below 44.1%.
- Gross margin contracts below 29.8%.
Monitor these triggers
3 checkpoints before the next earnings print
Revenue Growth YoY (baseline: 44.1%)
Debt/Equity increases above 0.16.
Net Margin contracts below 9.1%.
ROA drops below 5.5%.
For learning and research only — not investment advice. AlphaDog doesn’t hold stocks and isn’t your financial advisor.
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