WRB · sample dossier
W.R. Berkley Corporation
60/100
Stale StatementsGenerated Oct 17, 2026 · 10:00 AM UTC · 2 hours ago
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EquityW.R. Berkley CorporationXNYS
Decision context
HOLD
66% convictionThe latest quarter is more than 100 days old, so this stays a Hold.
A mixed picture — no strong reason to buy or sell right now.
The stock trades 25.0% above our estimate.
Current price
$75.42
Estimated value range
$41.27 – $63.07
Gap vs AlphaDog estimate
-25.0%
Narrow evidence — range rests on a single usable method.
The price is above our estimate, providing little valuation support.
Market context
Price
Price when available
Pick how far back the chart looks
1 month
+7.6%
3 months
+3.7%
6 months
+12.9%
1 year
-1.3%
Financial trajectory
Executive summary & thesis
W.R.
- EPS growth reached 15.0% YoY for the quarter ended June 30, 2026, supported by an operating gross margin of 43.8%.
- Free cash flow generation reached $8.86 per share, supporting capital returns against its $28.00B market capitalization.
- Financial leverage is conservative, with a Debt/Equity ratio of 0.32 limiting solvency risk relative to insurance peers.
- Revenue growth slowed to 2.7% YoY for the quarter ended June 30, 2026, indicating meaningful top-line deceleration.
- Valuation is elevated at a 15.49 P/E, trading above peer multiples including PGR at 11.0, AFG at 13.0, and CINF at 8.1.
- Historical filings disclose repeated operating income restatements from April 2025 through April 2026 to exclude foreign currency gains and losses.
Things to keep in mind
- 1Base target implies 25.0% downsideView source
- 2P/E 15.5xView source
- 3restatementView source
What to watch next
What changed recently
No material changes found in the last 30 days.
Why this rating
The latest quarter is more than 100 days old, so this stays a Hold.
Data through
Stale StatementsJun 30, 2026
A newer quarter has been reported and is not in these statements. The rating is capped at Hold until the statements catch up.
Factor profile
Value-sensitive setup
| Factor | Score |
|---|---|
| Quality | 61 out of 100 (Neutral). Business health — profits, returns, and consistency. Higher means a more durable company. |
| Growth | 38 out of 100 (Weak). How fast sales and earnings are rising. Higher means the business is expanding faster. |
| Value | 80 out of 100 (Elite). How cheap the stock looks for what you get. Higher means a more attractive price. |
| Safety | 60 out of 100 (Neutral). Balance-sheet cushion and fewer red flags. Higher means less risk of a nasty surprise. |
| Momentum | 64 out of 100 (Neutral). Recent share-price trend. Higher means buyers have been in control lately. |
Another way to look at it
A calmer look at both sides of the W.R. Berkley Corporation story
The consensus Buy verdict misprices an impending growth stall by over-relying on backward-looking cash flow metrics while ignoring severe top-line deceleration.
WRB trades at an unjustified valuation premium at a P/E of 15.5 and P/B of 3.0 compared to commercial insurance peers Progressive at 11.0, American Financial Group at 13.0, and Cincinnati Financial at 8.1. Despite generating $8.20 to $8.86 in FCF per share, top-line revenue growth collapsed to 2.7% YoY in the quarter ended June 30, 2026, with absolute revenue shrinking sequentially from $3.78B in September 2025 to $3.71B in June 2026. The 15.0% EPS growth rate cannot decouple indefinitely from a balance sheet generating a modest 3.6% ROA in an environment where quarterly volume is contracting. Furthermore, the consensus dismisses repeated operating income restatements from April 2025 through April 2026 as harmless foreign currency adjustments rather than symptomatic of earnings quality friction. Investors paying 3.0x book value for an underwriting franchise with 1-year returns of -1.3% are exposed to severe multiple compression if commercial casualty pricing fails to reaccelerate.
Consensus ignores the contraction of absolute revenue from $3.78B in September 2025 to $3.71B in June 2026, treating 2.7% YoY growth as temporary deceleration rather than structural saturation.
The 3.6% ROA is inadequate to sustain WRB's elevated 3.0 P/B multiple without relying on excessive equity leverage or unsustainable margin expansion.
Repeated operating income restatements across multiple filings between April 2025 and April 2026 are dismissed as minor foreign currency adjustments without scrutinizing reporting controls.
WRB carries a 40.9% multiple premium over Progressive (P/E 15.5 vs 11.0) and an 91.4% premium over Cincinnati Financial (P/E 8.1) despite posting an inferior 1-year total return of -1.3%.
EPS growth of 15.0% is assumed to be durable even though underlying gross margins of 43.8% face pressure if commercial casualty rate hardening fails to materialize as assumed.
Bulls project continued $8.20 to $8.86 per share free cash flow generation without accounting for the working capital drag of settling claims in an inflationary commercial lines cycle.
Revenue Growth YoY drops below 2.7%.
Gross Margin drops below 43.8%.
Cash after investing
See whether W.R. Berkley Corporation still makes cash after it spends to grow.
- Revenue Growth YoY drops below 2.7%.
- Gross Margin drops below 43.8%.
For learning and research only — not investment advice. AlphaDog doesn’t hold stocks and isn’t your financial advisor.
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