VZ · sample dossier
Verizon Communications
45/100
FreshGenerated Oct 24, 2026 · 10:00 AM UTC · 1 hour ago
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EquityVerizon Communications · XNYS
Decision context
Recommendation
A mixed picture — no strong reason to buy or sell right now.
AlphaDog Fair Value
Market context
Snapshot returns at report publication
1 month
-5.6%
3 months
-5.6%
6 months
-3.7%
1 year
+12.2%
At a Glance
A large company is in a pullback at modest pricing.
Top Holders
As of Jun 30, 2026Financial trajectory
Financial Performance
Executive thesis & key metrics
Executive Thesis
Verizon Communications ($185.55B market cap) provides consumer and business wireless and wireline communications at a TTM P/E of 11.63 and EV/EBITDA of 7.41.
Key Metrics to Watch
What changed recently
No material changes found in the last 30 days.
Why this rating
Score 45 · Hold
Data through
FreshJun 30, 2026
Value 93/100 — P/E 11.6x screens cheap vs inputs.
Re-evaluate if
- Net margin falls below 9.3% (was 11.6%)
Trim / reconsider if
- ROA falls below 3.3% (was 5.0%)
Think of these dollars as a map of our value estimate for Hold — helpful context, not a reason to override the view.
A Calmer Look · Devil's Advocate
The prevailing bearish consensus and the 45/100 'Avoid' factor verdict over-index on general industrial distress metrics like the 1.30 Altman Z-score without contextualizing telecom utility cash flow durability.
May be overlooked
The consensus completely ignores potential off-balance-sheet or structural complexities flagged in stale February 17, 2026 10-K filings (over 90 days old), specifically non-Topic 606 tower and equipment leasing and captive reinsurance arrangements, which could distort the reported 1.84x Debt/Equity ratio.
The bear thesis relies on an Altman Z-score of 1.30 to claim acute distress without recognizing that capital-intensive telecom utilities structurally operate with low asset turnover and high leverage (5.0% ROA, 1.8x P/B), making manufacturing-weighted Z-scores prone to false positives when TTM FCF is $4.83 per share.
Both sides ignore the total absence of dividend coverage and capital expenditure run-rate data in the consensus analysis, which is the primary determinant of whether $4.83 in TTM FCF per share can simultaneously service the 1.84x Debt/Equity load and shareholder payouts.
Expectations look stretched
Bullish claims of a valuation discount at 11.63x P/E and 7.41x EV/EBITDA cherry-pick T-Mobile (15.3x P/E, 8.0x EV/EBITDA) as the benchmark while ignoring that Verizon actually trades at a premium to closer legacy peer AT&T (11.2x P/E, 7.2x EV/EBITDA).
The bull case treats the 12.2% 1-year price return (to $44.66) as evidence of positive momentum, ignoring the reversal below both the 50-day and 200-day moving averages and the -5.6% 1-month and 3-month return degradation.
Bulls extrapolate the durability of the 11.6% TTM net margin and $4.83 TTM FCF/share without addressing how a -22.0% YoY (-23.3% QoQ) EPS contraction in stale Q2 2026 data and a 4/9 Piotroski F-score will compress trailing cash generation once Q3 results update.
Latest quarter YoY revenue growth turns positive above the -0.7% baseline while YoY EPS growth recovers from -22.0%.
Latest quarter YoY revenue growth turns positive above the -0.7% baseline while YoY EPS growth recovers from -22.0%.
Monitor These Triggers
3 Checkpoints · Next PrintYoY EPS Growth (current baseline: -22.0% in latest quarter) and YoY Revenue Growth (current baseline: -0.7%).
Go deeper
For learning and research only — not investment advice. AlphaDog doesn’t hold stocks and isn’t your financial advisor.
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