UPS · sample dossier
United Parcel Service, Inc.
41/100
OutdatedGenerated Oct 8, 2026 · 6:54 PM UTC · 10 hours ago
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EquityUnited Parcel Service, Inc.NYQ
Decision context
HOLD
80% convictionScore 41 · Hold
A mixed picture — no strong reason to buy or sell right now.
The stock trades 27.3% above our estimate.
Current price
$92.29
Estimated value range
$73.87 – $117.51
Gap vs AlphaDog estimate
-27.3%
Narrow evidence — range rests on a single usable method.
The price is above our estimate, providing little valuation support.
Market context
Price
Price when available
Pick how far back the chart looks
1 month
-8.2%
3 months
-16.7%
6 months
-8.1%
1 year
+6.5%
Financial trajectory
Executive summary & thesis
United Parcel Service, Inc. is a global logistics provider operating at a market capitalization of $79.95B, an EV/EBITDA of 8.49, and a share price of $92.29.
- Free cash flow generation of $6.41 per share supports equity value at an EV/EBITDA multiple of 8.49.
- Revenue grew 7.6% YoY as international and healthcare expansion counteracted scheduled customer volume roll-offs.
- Operational accounting quality demonstrates stability with a Piotroski F-score of 6/9.
- Severe profitability degradation is marked by an EPS growth contraction of -53.0% YoY.
- Balance sheet leverage is elevated with a Debt/Equity ratio of 1.90 and a grey-zone Altman Z-score of 2.78.
- Negative market momentum has driven a 3-month return of -16.7% below 50-day and 200-day moving averages.
Things to keep in mind
- 1Base target implies 21.5% downsideView source
- 2P/E 17.5xView source
- 3Debt/Equity 1.90View source
What to watch next
Factor profile
Balanced operator
| Factor | Score |
|---|---|
| Quality | 38 out of 100 (Weak). Business health — profits, returns, and consistency. Higher means a more durable company. |
| Growth | 18 out of 100 (Weak). How fast sales and earnings are rising. Higher means the business is expanding faster. |
| Value | 73 out of 100 (Strong). How cheap the stock looks for what you get. Higher means a more attractive price. |
| Safety | 49 out of 100 (Neutral). Balance-sheet cushion and fewer red flags. Higher means less risk of a nasty surprise. |
| Momentum | 22 out of 100 (Weak). Recent share-price trend. Higher means buyers have been in control lately. |
Another way to look at it
A calmer look at both sides of the UPS story
The consensus 'Hold' verdict dangerously relies on trailing valuation multiples like EV/EBITDA of 8.5 to establish a price floor, ignoring that operating leverage is rapidly turning negative.
EPS has deteriorated precipitously from $2.10 in late 2025 down to $0.71 in the quarter ended June 30, 2026, rendering the current P/E multiple of 17.5 vulnerable to substantial multiple compression. Net margin of just 5.1% provides virtually zero cushion against execution risks tied to closing 44 facilities and absorbing the $1.1 billion Driver Choice Program. Moreover, balance sheet leverage is elevated with Debt/Equity at 1.90 and an Altman Z-score of 2.78 sitting squarely in the grey zone. Relying on revenue growth of 7.6% YoY masks severe unit margin compression where expanding gross revenue yields half the net profit. Under these conditions, the consensus expectation that current cash generation will insulate equity holders from further downside is fundamentally flawed.
Severe divergence between reported FCF per share ($6.41 to $7.47) and annualized EPS run-rate of $2.84 based on the latest $0.71 quarterly print, suggesting cash flow is artificially supported by working capital timing or delayed capital expenditure.
Unimpaired goodwill balances of $877 million in Global Freight Forwarding and $738 million in Healthcare Logistics Distribution face heightened write-down risk given -53.0% YoY EPS contraction.
Total absence of analysis regarding debt service coverage and refinancing risk despite a Debt/Equity ratio of 1.90 and an Altman Z-score of 2.78.
Unsubstantiated assumption that the closure of 44 facilities and the $1.1 billion Driver Choice Program will automatically expand margins over 6 to 12 months rather than cause volume attrition.
Treating top-line revenue growth of 7.6% YoY as an indicator of health when net margin has simultaneously compressed to 5.1% and ROA has fallen to 7.3%.
Perceiving EV/EBITDA of 8.5 as a defensive valuation anchor while the equity trades at an aggressive P/B ratio of 5.3 alongside a 53.0% YoY drop in EPS.
Revenue growth YoY falls below the baseline rate of 7.6%.
Debt/Equity expands above the current level of 1.90.
Cash after investing
See whether UPS still makes cash after it spends to grow.
- Revenue growth YoY falls below the baseline rate of 7.6%.
- Debt/Equity expands above the current level of 1.90.
- Net margin expands above 5.1% for two consecutive quarters
Monitor these triggers
3 checkpoints before the next earnings print
Net margin relative to the current 5.1% baseline.
Net margin falls below the current 5.1% level.
Return on assets (ROA) contracts below 7.3%.
Debt/Equity ratio increases above 1.90.
For learning and research only — not investment advice. AlphaDog doesn’t hold stocks and isn’t your financial advisor.
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