UNH · sample dossier
UNITEDHEALTH GROUP INCORPORATED (Delaware)
54/100
OutdatedGenerated Oct 10, 2026 · 10:00 AM UTC · 1 hour ago
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EquityUNITEDHEALTH GROUP INCORPORATED (Delaware)XNYS
Decision context
HOLD
78% convictionScore 54 · Hold
A mixed picture — no strong reason to buy or sell right now.
The stock trades near our estimate.
Current price
$379.30
Estimated value range
$313.21 – $515.12
Gap vs AlphaDog estimate
+0.9%
Supporting methods disagree by 60% — midpoint is illustrative, not a precise target.
Valuation is aligned with fundamentals; future returns depend on operational execution.
Market context
Price
Price when available
Pick how far back the chart looks
1 month
-2.3%
3 months
-11.6%
6 months
+24.6%
1 year
+2.5%
Financial trajectory
Executive summary & thesis
UnitedHealth Group Incorporated operates as a managed healthcare enterprise with a market capitalization of $340.46B, generating free cash flow per share of $26.07 against a trailing P/E ratio of 24.39.
- Free cash flow per share stands at $26.07, providing solid cash conversion on a $340.46B market cap.
- Latest quarter YoY EPS surged 61.5%, driven by operating earnings increasing to $7,991M in Q2 2026.
- Valuation remains reasonable with EV/EBITDA at 14.61 and P/E at 24.39, below peer Humana's 40.8 P/E.
- Revenue growth decelerated to 0.4% YoY in the latest quarter ended June 30, 2026, signaling stalling organic top-line momentum.
- Net profit margin is thin at 3.1%, leaving minimal operational cushion against medical cost pressure.
- Altman Z-score of 2.96 sits in the grey zone, while long-term debt totals $69,501M against $104,513M equity.
Things to keep in mind
- 1P/E 24.4xView source
- 2Net margin 3.1%View source
- 3Revenue growth decelerated to 0.4% YoY in the latest quarter ended June 30, 2026, signaling stalling organic top-line momentum.View source
What to watch next
Factor profile
Balanced operator
| Factor | Score |
|---|---|
| Quality | 42 out of 100 (Neutral). Business health — profits, returns, and consistency. Higher means a more durable company. |
| Growth | 60 out of 100 (Neutral). How fast sales and earnings are rising. Higher means the business is expanding faster. |
| Value | 66 out of 100 (Neutral). How cheap the stock looks for what you get. Higher means a more attractive price. |
| Safety | 50 out of 100 (Neutral). Balance-sheet cushion and fewer red flags. Higher means less risk of a nasty surprise. |
| Momentum | 55 out of 100 (Neutral). Recent share-price trend. Higher means buyers have been in control lately. |
Another way to look at it
A calmer look at both sides of the UNH story
The consensus view treats UnitedHealth as a steady defensive anchor worthy of a neutral Hold, leaning heavily on trailing free cash flow per share of $26.07 to $27.04 and an apparent 61.5% quarterly EPS surge.
However, this earnings spike masks structural top-line exhaustion, with revenue growth grinding to a near halt at just 0.4% YoY to $112,032M. Investors paying 24.4 times earnings and an EV/EBITDA of 14.6 receive an enterprise with a razor-thin 3.1% net margin and an ROA of only 4.9%. Furthermore, the debate relies on stale balance sheet data from June 30, 2026—exceeding 100 days old as of 2026-10-10—while overlooking $69,501M in long-term debt and $38,930M in medical costs payable that pin the Altman Z-score in the grey zone at 2.96. With Piotroski F scoring an uninspiring 5/9 and the stock trailing below its 50-day moving average after an 11.6% 3-month drop, the consensus fails to price in the fragility of UNH's operational cushion.
Reliance on stale financial statements
Balance sheet and income metrics date back to June 30, 2026, which is over 100 days old as of 2026-10-10 and leaves recent Q3 medical cost trends unexamined.
Substantial balance sheet commitments
Long-term debt of $69,501M and medical costs payable of $38,930M represent massive short- and long-term liabilities against total assets of $309,727M, keeping the Altman Z-score in the grey zone at 2.96.
Near-complete top-line stagnation
YoY revenue expansion slowed to 0.4% in Q2 2026, revealing that core organic enrollment and business volume growth have largely stalled.
Extrapolating the 61.5% EPS surge: Operating earnings expanded to $7,991M primarily due to medical costs declining from $78,585M in Q2 2025 to $75,358M in Q2 2026 rather than sustainable top-line expansion, which grew only 0.4%.
Overstating insider conviction
Touting 17 insider buys as a major bullish signal ignores the de minimis scale of the purchases, such as Frederick McNabb acquiring just 291 shares and Scott Gottlieb buying 257 shares for a $340.46B company.
Selective valuation framing
Labeling EV/EBITDA of 14.61 attractive by comparing to Johnson & Johnson at 18.9 ignores that UNH trades at a significant premium to direct managed-care peers Humana at 11.9 and Centene at 4.7.
Revenue growth YoY drops below 0.4%.
Gross margin contracts below 19.7%.
Cash after investing
See whether UNH still makes cash after it spends to grow.
- Revenue growth YoY drops below 0.4%.
- Gross margin contracts below 19.7%.
- Net margin expands above 3.1% for two consecutive quarters
For learning and research only — not investment advice. AlphaDog doesn’t hold stocks and isn’t your financial advisor.
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