UNFI · sample dossier
United Natural Foods Inc
39/100
OutdatedGenerated Sep 5, 2026 · 10:00 AM UTC · 61 days ago
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EquityUnited Natural Foods Inc · XNYS
Decision context
Recommendation
Weighed down by weak Growth (12/100) and Quality (28/100) scores.
A cautious picture — if you own it, consider taking some off.
AlphaDog Fair Value
Executive thesis & key metrics
Executive Thesis
United Natural Foods Inc is a wholesale grocery distributor with a market capitalization of $2.66B that trades at an EV/EBITDA of 10.04 and produces free cash flow per share of $5.25 (four-quarter statements).
Key Metrics to Watch
What changed recently
No material changes found in the last 30 days.
Why this rating
Score 39 · Sell
Data through
OutdatedApr 30, 2026
Composite 39/100 — weak across most factors.
Re-evaluate if
- Net margin falls below -0.1% (was -0.1%)
Trim / reconsider if
- ROA falls below 1.5% (was 2.3%)
- Debt/Equity rises above 1.97.
Think of these dollars as a map of our value estimate for Sell — helpful context, not a reason to override the view.
A Calmer Look · Devil's Advocate
The consensus verdict to 'Reduce' UNFI over-indexes on accounting losses while misdiagnosing structural solvency, yet the bullish counter-narrative rests on equally fragile assumptions.
May be overlooked
The consensus debate excludes $1,312M in long-term operating lease liabilities, which effectively elevates fixed enterprise obligations far above the stated $1,660M in funded debt and 1.97 Debt/Equity ratio.
The bear consensus fixates on balance-sheet distress while ignoring that UNFI's Altman Z-score of 4.91 indicates negligible near-term insolvency risk.
Both bull and bear cases rely on financial metrics from the 13-week period ended May 2, 2026, which are over 90 days stale as of September 5, 2026, despite three subsequent SEC filings in June and July 2026.
Expectations look stretched
Bulls extrapolate trailing free cash flow of $7.97 per share despite top-line revenue contracting -4.2% YoY and net margin remaining negative at -0.1%.
The market prices UNFI at an EV/EBITDA multiple of 10.04—a wide premium over peer MED at 2.1—despite UNFI generating a depressed ROA of 2.3% and a negative P/E of -66.6.
Bulls cite sequential EPS expansion from -$1.43 to $0.52 without acknowledging that a Piotroski F-score of 3/9 signals poor underlying earnings quality.
Revenue Growth YoY improves above -4.2%.
Revenue Growth YoY improves above -4.2%.
Monitor These Triggers
3 Checkpoints · Next PrintRevenue Growth YoY (current baseline: -4.2%)
Market context
Snapshot returns at report publication
1 month
-8.2%
3 months
-20.9%
6 months
+20.5%
1 year
+52.0%
At a Glance
A mid-sized company has mixed momentum at unprofitable earnings.
Top Holders
Financial trajectory
Financial Performance
Go deeper
For learning and research only — not investment advice. AlphaDog doesn’t hold stocks and isn’t your financial advisor.
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