UAL · sample dossier
United Airlines Holdings, Inc. Common Stock
50/100
Stale StatementsGenerated Oct 17, 2026 · 10:00 AM UTC · 2 hours ago
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EquityUnited Airlines Holdings, Inc. Common StockXNAS
Decision context
AVOID
62% convictionScore 50 · Avoid
Downsides look heavier than upsides — we wouldn’t start a new position.
The stock trades 60.8% below our estimate.
Current price
$96.10
Estimated value range
$121.76 – $203.85
Gap vs AlphaDog estimate
+60.8%
Supporting methods disagree by 151% — midpoint is illustrative, not a precise target.
The discount is real, and the rating still follows the factor score on this report.
Market context
Price
Price when available
Pick how far back the chart looks
1 month
-10.7%
3 months
-18.2%
6 months
-5.6%
1 year
-7.6%
Financial trajectory
Executive summary & thesis
United Airlines Holdings, Inc. is a major commercial carrier with a market cap of $31.19B, trading at a trailing P/E of 9.00 and an EV/EBITDA of 6.80.
- Trailing free cash flow per share reaches $7.79, supporting operations while the stock trades at an EV/EBITDA multiple of 6.80.
- Operating revenue grew 16.0% YoY in the quarter ended 2026-06-30 to reach $17,672M, driven by $16,100M in passenger revenue.
- Forensic accounting health remains stable with an unmanipulated Beneish M-score of -2.66 and an operational Piotroski F-score of 7/9.
- Altman Z-score of 1.43 sits in the distress zone, compounded by an elevated Debt/Equity ratio of 2.02.
- Latest quarter EPS shrank 17.2% YoY as quarterly aircraft fuel expenses rose to $5,110M from $2,775M.
- Share price momentum is negative with a 3-month return of -18.2% and trading below its 200-day moving average.
Things to keep in mind
- 1P/E 9.0xView source
- 2Debt/Equity 2.02View source
- 3Net margin 5.6%View source
What to watch next
What changed recently
No material changes found in the last 30 days.
Why this rating
Score 50 · Avoid
Data through
Stale StatementsJun 30, 2026
A newer quarter has been reported and is not in these statements. The rating is capped at Hold until the statements catch up.
Factor profile
Value-sensitive setup
| Factor | Score |
|---|---|
| Quality | 54 out of 100 (Neutral). Business health — profits, returns, and consistency. Higher means a more durable company. |
| Growth | 26 out of 100 (Weak). How fast sales and earnings are rising. Higher means the business is expanding faster. |
| Value | 94 out of 100 (Elite). How cheap the stock looks for what you get. Higher means a more attractive price. |
| Safety | 50 out of 100 (Neutral). Balance-sheet cushion and fewer red flags. Higher means less risk of a nasty surprise. |
| Momentum | 17 out of 100 (Weak). Recent share-price trend. Higher means buyers have been in control lately. |
Another way to look at it
What the optimistic case might still be missing about UAL
The consensus stalemate that rates UAL an Avoid or Draw based on optical valuation ignores the severe operational leverage threatening its thin 5.6% net margin.
Bulls treat the trailing P/E of 9.0 and EV/EBITDA of 6.8 as an asymmetric bargain, ignoring that low multiples in commercial airlines routinely signal peak-cycle earnings rather than fundamental safety. Bears conversely fail to press the balance sheet risk rigorously, ignoring that six-month interest expense of $670M consumes 44.5% of six-month net income of $1,504M under a Debt/Equity ratio of 2.02. Furthermore, both camps rely on financial disclosures dated 2026-07-15 that are 94 days old and stale as of 2026-10-17, masking post-summer demand normalization. With quarterly aircraft fuel expenses surging 84.1% YoY to $5,110M, any minor margin compression will quickly erase the 3.4% ROA and plunge the 1.43 Altman Z-score deeper into distress.
Six-month interest expense of $670M through 2026-06-30 absorbs 44.5% of six-month net income ($1,504M), creating extreme debt-service sensitivity on a Debt/Equity ratio of 2.02 that neither side modeled.
Operating and guidance metrics are anchored entirely on 2026-07-15 filings that are 94 days old and stale as of 2026-10-17, obscuring post-peak-summer passenger yield declines.
A razor-thin net margin of 5.6% provides zero structural buffer against quarterly aircraft fuel costs, which escalated from $2,775M in Q2 2025 to $5,110M in Q2 2026.
Extrapolating revenue growth of 16.0% YoY to $17,672M as operational strength when quarterly net income simultaneously dropped from $973M to $805M.
Treating EV/EBITDA of 6.80 and P/E of 9.0 as a value floor while the stock remains broken technically, trading below its MA50 and MA200 with a 3-month return of -18.2%.
Relying on trailing free cash flow per share metrics ($2.80 to $7.79) during an operating period where quarterly EPS contracted by -17.2% YoY.
Altman Z-score rises above 1.43 to exit the distress zone and Debt/Equity decreases below 2.02.
EPS growth YoY turns positive from the current contraction level of -17.2%.
Cash after investing
See whether UAL still makes cash after it spends to grow.
- Altman Z-score rises above 1.43 to exit the distress zone and Debt/Equity decreases below 2.02.
- EPS growth YoY turns positive from the current contraction level of -17.2%.
- Net margin expands above 5.6% for two consecutive quarters
Monitor these triggers
3 checkpoints before the next earnings print
Aircraft fuel expense relative to the Q2 2026 baseline of $5,110M.
Net margin declining below the TTM baseline of 5.6% due to fuel cost escalation.
Debt/Equity expanding beyond 2.02 alongside an Altman Z-score remaining at or below 1.43.
EPS growth contracting further beyond -17.2% YoY.
For learning and research only — not investment advice. AlphaDog doesn’t hold stocks and isn’t your financial advisor.
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