TYL · sample dossier
Tyler Technologies, Inc.
48/100
OutdatedGenerated Oct 8, 2026 · 6:57 PM UTC · 10 hours ago
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EquityTyler Technologies, Inc.XNYS
Decision context
HOLD
80% convictionScore 48 · Hold
A mixed picture — no strong reason to buy or sell right now.
The stock trades 22.0% above our estimate.
Current price
$332.34
Estimated value range
$210.20 – $379.76
Gap vs AlphaDog estimate
-22.0%
Supporting methods disagree by 61% — midpoint is illustrative, not a precise target.
The price is above our estimate, providing little valuation support.
Market context
Price
Price when available
Pick how far back the chart looks
1 month
-4.5%
3 months
+6.9%
6 months
+1.4%
1 year
-33.0%
Financial trajectory
Executive summary & thesis
Tyler Technologies, Inc. provides public sector software solutions, carrying a market capitalization of $13.41B at a current share price of $332.34.
- Robust cash conversion delivers free cash flow per share of $16.86, self-funding ongoing SaaS platform expansion.
- EPS growth YoY reached 15.5%, demonstrating operating leverage above the 8.2% revenue growth pace.
- Balance sheet solvency is backed by an Altman Z-score of 5.72 and Debt/Equity of 0.48.
- An elevated P/E ratio of 43.09 leaves shares highly susceptible to multiple compression if growth slows.
- Technical momentum has deteriorated sharply, evidenced by a 1-year return of -33.0% and trading below moving averages.
- Capital efficiency remains modest, evidenced by a return on assets of 4.2%.
Things to keep in mind
- 1Base target implies 18.1% downsideView source
- 2P/E 43.1xView source
- 3An elevated P/E ratio of 43.09 leaves shares highly susceptible to multiple compression if growth slows.View source
What to watch next
Factor profile
Financially conservative
| Factor | Score |
|---|---|
| Quality | 66 out of 100 (Neutral). Business health — profits, returns, and consistency. Higher means a more durable company. |
| Growth | 44 out of 100 (Neutral). How fast sales and earnings are rising. Higher means the business is expanding faster. |
| Value | 27 out of 100 (Weak). How cheap the stock looks for what you get. Higher means a more attractive price. |
| Safety | 75 out of 100 (Strong). Balance-sheet cushion and fewer red flags. Higher means less risk of a nasty surprise. |
| Momentum | 12 out of 100 (Weak). Recent share-price trend. Higher means buyers have been in control lately. |
Another way to look at it
A calmer look at both sides of the Tyler Technologies, Inc. story
The debate consensus mistakenly crowned the bull thesis by treating a $1.5 billion buyback authorization and steady cash conversion as insulation against catastrophic multiple compression.
Tyler Technologies trades at an exorbitant 43.1 P/E and 30.7 EV/EBITDA while delivering single-digit revenue growth of just 8.2%. An anemic return on assets of 4.2% demonstrates poor balance sheet capital productivity that fails to justify a 4.4 Price-to-Book multiple. Market participants are already rejecting this valuation framework, driving a -33.0% 1-year return and keeping shares depressed below both their 50-day and 200-day moving averages. Furthermore, the judge ignored net insider selling of $3.35 million over the past three months, where the COO dumped 8,500 shares and repurchased a negligible 16 shares. Extrapolating earnings resilience when growth stands at 8.2% ignores the reality that a 30.7 EV/EBITDA multiple has substantial room to de-rate further.
Capital efficiency is structurally weak, with Return on Assets at just 4.2% despite the premium 4.4 Price-to-Book valuation.
The adversarial debate completely ignored trailing 3-month insider net selling of $3.35 million, highlighted by COO Jeffrey Puckett selling 8,500 shares in August 2026 before purchasing a symbolic 16 shares in September 2026.
A full execution of the $1.5 billion repurchase program represents over 11.1% of the $13.41 billion market capitalization, which risks escalating the 0.48 Debt/Equity ratio if funded via balance sheet leverage.
Extrapolating a 43.1 P/E and 30.7 EV/EBITDA onto a business expanding top-line revenue at only 8.2% YoY reflects severe growth-multiple disconnect.
Assuming the $1.5 billion buyback authorization provides automated price support, despite the stock dropping -4.5% over the trailing month following the July 2026 announcement.
Treating 15.5% EPS growth as sustainable operating leverage when top-line growth is bounded at 8.2% and gross margins are static at 47.2%.
Revenue growth YoY decelerates below 8.2%
Net margin declines below 13.4%
Cash after investing
See whether Tyler Technologies, Inc. still makes cash after it spends to grow.
- Revenue growth YoY decelerates below 8.2%
- Net margin declines below 13.4%
- Revenue growth continues without margin deterioration
Monitor these triggers
4 checkpoints before the next earnings print
Revenue growth YoY (baseline 8.2%) to evaluate whether top-line expansion continues to support the 43.09 P/E multiple.
Revenue growth YoY falls below 8.2%
ROA falls below 4.2%
Net margin drops below 13.4%
Debt/Equity exceeds 0.48
For learning and research only — not investment advice. AlphaDog doesn’t hold stocks and isn’t your financial advisor.
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