TTWO · sample dossier
Take-Two Interactive Software Inc
32/100
OutdatedGenerated Oct 27, 2026 · 11:28 PM UTC · 6 days ago
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EquityTake-Two Interactive Software Inc · XNAS
Decision context
Recommendation
Weighed down by weak Value (3/100) and Momentum (13/100) scores.
A cautious picture — if you own it, consider taking some off.
AlphaDog Fair Value
Executive thesis & key metrics
Executive Thesis
Take-Two Interactive Software Inc (TTWO) is a $37.64B market-cap interactive entertainment publisher trading at $201.28 with a 57.1% TTM gross margin and $1.81 in TTM FCF/share.
Key Metrics to Watch
What changed recently
No material changes found in the last 30 days.
Why this rating
Score 32 · Sell
Data through
OutdatedJun 30, 2026
A newer quarter has been reported and is not in these statements.
Composite 32/100 — weak across most factors.
Levels unavailable — AlphaDog quantitative valuation model did not produce an estimate from comps or DCF
Re-evaluate if
- Net margin falls below -5.8% (was -4.8%)
- YoY revenue growth accelerates meaningfully above the latest 2.0% quarterly rate while TTM gross margin holds at or above 57.1%.
- EV/EBITDA compresses below 50.56x while TTM FCF/share expands above $1.81.
Trim / reconsider if
- ROA falls below -10.6% (was -0.6%)
- Debt/Equity rises above 0.82 or TTM FCF/share drops below $1.81.
Dollar levels aren’t available for this run — the view above still stands.
A Calmer Look · Devil's Advocate
Both the synthesis report and the adversarial debate anchor their entire analysis on a critical blind spot: $2,395.0M in non-current capitalized software development costs and licenses sitting on the stale June 30, 2026 balance sheet (older than 90 days as of 2026-10-27), which represents 66.4% of Take-Two's $3,608.4M total stockholders' equity.
May be overlooked
The stale June 30, 2026 balance sheet (older than 90 days) holds $2,395.0M in non-current capitalized software development costs and licenses—66.4% of the $3,608.4M in stockholders' equity—meaning the 10.43x Price/Book and 0.82 Debt/Equity ratios are heavily reliant on the future commercial success of unreleased games.
Short-term debt surged 20x from $30.0M at March 31, 2026 to $629.9M on the stale June 30, 2026 balance sheet as long-term debt fell from $2,488.0M to $1,889.8M, creating a near-term maturity wall that will drain 34.5% of the company's $1,826.6M in combined cash ($1,364.9M) and short-term investments ($461.7M) given the modest $1.81 TTM FCF/share.
All 10 insider sales over the 3 months ended 2026-10-27 totaling -$2.72M (-13,231 shares, with 0 buys) occurred outside of 10b5-1 trading plans (0 under 10b5-1 plans), signaling active, discretionary liquidation by insiders even after a -20.1% 1Y and -17.9% 3M share price decline.
Expectations look stretched
The Bull claim that a 57.1% TTM gross margin and $1.81 TTM FCF/share prove underlying earnings quality ignores that capitalizing $2,395.0M of software development costs keeps current expenses off the income statement until those titles are released and amortized.
Citing a -2.33 Beneish M-score, 5.12 Altman Z-score, and 7/9 Piotroski F-score as proof of a 'conservative accounting profile' overlooks the -$7,391.1M accumulated deficit (worsening from -$7,357.0M at March 31, 2026 in stale filings) alongside a -0.6% TTM ROA and -4.8% net margin.
The Bull Advocate relies on stale June 2026 data (older than 90 days) showing a 43.8% QoQ narrowing in EPS losses from -$0.32 to -$0.18 as evidence of operational improvement, despite sequential revenue simultaneously contracting 8.9% QoQ from $1.68B to $1.53B.
YoY revenue growth accelerates meaningfully above the latest 2.0% quarterly rate while TTM gross margin holds at or above 57.1%.
YoY revenue growth accelerates meaningfully above the latest 2.0% quarterly rate while TTM gross margin holds at or above 57.1%.
Monitor These Triggers
3 Checkpoints · Next PrintYoY revenue growth (currently 2.0%) alongside TTM net margin progression from the current -4.8% baseline.
Market context
Snapshot returns at report publication
1 month
+0.9%
3 months
-17.9%
6 months
-4.9%
1 year
-20.1%
At a Glance
A large company is in a pullback at unprofitable earnings.
Top Holders
As of Jun 30, 2026Financial trajectory
Financial Performance
Go deeper
For learning and research only — not investment advice. AlphaDog doesn’t hold stocks and isn’t your financial advisor.
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