TTD · sample dossier
TTD
47/100
OutdatedGenerated Aug 11, 2026 · 4:00 AM UTC · 90 days ago
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EquityPublic company
Decision context
Recommendation
Balanced between solid Value (86/100) and constrained Momentum (0/100).
A mixed picture — no strong reason to buy or sell right now.
AlphaDog Fair Value
Executive thesis & key metrics
Executive Investment Thesis
TTD is an advertising technology provider with a market capitalization of $6.29B, trading at a P/E ratio of 16.33 and an EV/EBITDA of 7.51. The Hold verdict fits given stagnant top-and-bottom-line performance, with Revenue Growth YoY at 3.0% and EPS Growth YoY at -22.2%, yielding a Composite score of 47/100. The principal risk is severe momentum contraction, underscored by a 6M return of -50.5% and a Momentum score of 0/100.
Key Metrics to Watch
What changed recently
No material changes found in the last 30 days.
Why this rating
Score 47 · Hold
Data through
OutdatedJun 30, 2026
Value 86/100 — P/E 16.3x screens cheap vs inputs.
Re-evaluate if
- Severe accounting disclosures (auditor / restatement / going concern) in SEC filings
- Net margin falls below 10.9% (was 13.6%)
- Revenue Growth YoY below 3.0%
Trim / reconsider if
- ROA falls below 4.1% (was 6.3%)
- EPS Growth YoY below -22.2%
- EPS growth YoY contracts below -22.2%
Think of these dollars as a map of our value estimate for Hold — helpful context, not a reason to override the view.
A Calmer Look · Devil's Advocate
Both sides of the TTD story, next to the Hold above
The consensus Hold verdict relies on a false value thesis that severely understates structural and accounting risks at TTD.
May be overlooked
Ignoring that a high 76.9% gross margin fails to translate to asset efficiency, with ROA standing at just 6.3% alongside a -22.2% YoY EPS contraction.
Overlooking how the active accounting restatement flag and ASC Topic 606 revenue adoption jeopardize the reliability of reported revenue growth of 3.0% and the 16.3 P/E multiple.
Dismissing balance sheet risk reflected in the grey-zone Altman Z-score of 2.77 by focusing exclusively on the low 0.17 Debt/Equity ratio.
Expectations look stretched
Viewing the Value score of 86/100 and EV/EBITDA of 7.51 as a bargain, when multiple compression reflects revenue growth plunging to 3.0% YoY.
Framing $115,444 in net insider purchases across 12 trades as a bullish signal when it constitutes a negligible 0.0018% of the $6.29B market cap.
Relying on a 76.9% gross margin as proof of platform moat while net margin has fallen to 13.6%.
Revenue growth YoY decelerates below 3.0%
Revenue growth YoY decelerates below 3.0%
Market context
Snapshot returns at report publication
1 month
-31.4%
3 months
-42.0%
6 months
-50.5%
1 year
—
At a Glance
A mid-sized company is in a pullback at fair pricing.
Top Holders
Go deeper
For learning and research only — not investment advice. AlphaDog doesn’t hold stocks and isn’t your financial advisor.
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