TTAN · sample dossier
ServiceTitan, Inc. Class A Common Stock
56/100
OutdatedGenerated Sep 5, 2026 · 10:00 AM UTC · 62 days ago
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EquityServiceTitan, Inc. Class A Common Stock · XNAS
Decision context
Recommendation
Balanced between solid Safety (73/100) and constrained Valuation (37/100).
A mixed picture — no strong reason to buy or sell right now.
AlphaDog Fair Value
Executive thesis & key metrics
Executive Investment Thesis
ServiceTitan, Inc. (TTAN) is an $8.39B market cap vertical software provider trading at a Price/Book of 5.45 and generating positive FCF/share of $1.03 (four-quarter statements). The current Hold verdict aligns with top-line revenue growth of 24.6% YoY and a conservative Debt/Equity ratio of 0.03, countered by unprofitable operations reflected in a -13.4% net margin and -5.1% ROA. The single biggest operational risk is ongoing GAAP unprofitability with a negative P/E of -63.71, negative EV/EBITDA of -99.75, and annual dilution of +5.2% YoY.
Key Metrics to Watch
What changed recently
No material changes found in the last 30 days.
Why this rating
Score 56 · Hold
Data through
OutdatedApr 30, 2026
Composite 56/100 — no single factor above 75 dominates.
Re-evaluate if
- Net margin falls below -10.8% (was -13.4%)
Trim / reconsider if
- ROA falls below -3.3% (was -5.1%)
- Net margin falls below -13.4%
- Debt/Equity ratio increases above 0.03.
Think of these dollars as a map of our value estimate for Hold — helpful context, not a reason to override the view.
A Calmer Look · Devil's Advocate
Consensus treats ServiceTitan's 'Hold' posture and positive free cash flow of $1.98 per share as proof of operational resilience, but this masks severe structural dilution and accounting divergence.
May be overlooked
Divergence between positive FCF/share of $1.98 and a negative net margin of -13.4% indicates heavy non-cash stock-based compensation that artificially inflates cash flow while diluting shareholders by +5.2% YoY.
Quarterly revenue figures relied upon by consensus stop at April 2026 ($268.82M) and are over 90 days stale as of September 2026, leaving potential seasonal or macro deceleration unmonitored.
The 1-year negative price return of -12.4% conflicts with the recent technical optimism of trading above both 50-day and 200-day moving averages, pointing to potential bull trap behavior.
Expectations look stretched
Extrapolating gross margin strength of 71.1% into eventual GAAP profitability ignores the current persistent ROA of -5.1% and negative net margin of -13.4%.
Paying a Price/Book of 5.5 and EV/EBITDA of -99.8 for a firm with -12.4% 1-year returns assumes uninterrupted multiple expansion without earnings support.
Assuming the Altman Z-score of 24.65 guarantees safety overlooks structural equity erosion caused by consistent annual share dilution of 5.2%.
Revenue growth YoY decelerates below the current baseline of 24.6%.
Revenue growth YoY decelerates below the current baseline of 24.6%.
Market context
Snapshot returns at report publication
1 month
+2.7%
3 months
+13.6%
6 months
+6.0%
1 year
-12.4%
At a Glance
A mid-sized company is on a steady trend at unprofitable earnings.
Top Holders
Financial trajectory
Financial Performance
Go deeper
For learning and research only — not investment advice. AlphaDog doesn’t hold stocks and isn’t your financial advisor.
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