TMO · sample dossier
Thermo Fisher Scientific, Inc.
54/100
FreshGenerated Oct 17, 2026 · 10:00 AM UTC · 2 hours ago
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EquityThermo Fisher Scientific, Inc.XNYS
Decision context
HOLD
70% convictionScore 54 · Hold
A mixed picture — no strong reason to buy or sell right now.
The stock trades 41.6% below our estimate.
Current price
$690.00
Estimated value range
$724.75 – $1,206.35
Gap vs AlphaDog estimate
+41.6%
Narrow evidence — range rests on a single usable method.
The stock trades at a discount, but execution uncertainties suggest waiting for a clearer catalyst.
Market context
Price
Price when available
Pick how far back the chart looks
1 month
+4.8%
3 months
+31.1%
6 months
+31.0%
1 year
+30.7%
Financial trajectory
Executive summary & thesis
Thermo Fisher Scientific, Inc. is a global life sciences tools provider with a market capitalization of $255.13B and trailing twelve-month free cash flow per share of $19.73 (four-quarter statements).
- Cash generation remains strong with trailing free cash flow per share of $19.73 and a 41.0% gross margin.
- Top-line revenue expanded 10.5% year-over-year in the latest quarter alongside 9.3% EPS growth.
- Balance sheet safety is sound with an Altman Z-score of 4.17 alongside a 30.7% 1-year return.
- Valuation is elevated with a trailing P/E of 37.14 and EV/EBITDA of 25.02, raising vulnerability to multiple contraction.
- Financial leverage poses risk with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.81.
- Asset efficiency is modest with a 5.1% return on assets and a neutral Piotroski F-score of 5/9.
Things to keep in mind
- 1P/E 37.1xView source
- 2Valuation is elevated with a trailing P/E of 37.14 and EV/EBITDA of 25.02, raising vulnerability to multiple contraction.View source
- 3Financial leverage poses risk with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.81.View source
What to watch next
What changed recently
No material changes found in the last 30 days.
Why this rating
Score 54 · Hold
Data through
FreshJun 30, 2026
Factor profile
Momentum-led profile
| Factor | Score |
|---|---|
| Quality | 58 out of 100 (Neutral). Business health — profits, returns, and consistency. Higher means a more durable company. |
| Growth | 40 out of 100 (Weak). How fast sales and earnings are rising. Higher means the business is expanding faster. |
| Value | 37 out of 100 (Weak). How cheap the stock looks for what you get. Higher means a more attractive price. |
| Safety | 57 out of 100 (Neutral). Balance-sheet cushion and fewer red flags. Higher means less risk of a nasty surprise. |
| Momentum | 87 out of 100 (Elite). Recent share-price trend. Higher means buyers have been in control lately. |
Another way to look at it
A calmer look at both sides of the TMO story
The consensus 'Hold' verdict treats TMO's valuation as a balanced standoff, but paying a 37.1 P/E and 25.0 EV/EBITDA for 9.3% EPS growth represents severe overpayment.
Market participants ignore that capital allocation efficiency is mediocre, with ROA stalled at 5.1% and a Piotroski F-score of 5/9 indicating no operational inflection. Crucially, the entire consensus rests on stale quarterly data from 2026-06-27 that is over 110 days old as of 2026-10-17. Meanwhile, consensus downplays financial leverage at 0.81 Debt/Equity, even as insider selling on 2026-08-28 coincided with a 31.1% 3-month price surge. With the growth factor score lagging at 39.8 out of 100, relying on a 41.0% gross margin to prevent multiple contraction is an unhedged herd risk.
Operating efficiency is unexceptional with a Piotroski F-score of 5/9 and ROA of 5.1%, indicating asset productivity fails to justify a 4.8 P/B multiple.
Disclosed quarterly financial statements from 2026-06-27 are stale at 112 days old as of 2026-10-17, anchoring the entire valuation on dated operational metrics.
Executive share dispositions on 2026-08-28 by CEO Marc Casper occurred directly into the 31.1% 3-month stock price run-up.
Extrapolating the 30.7% 1-year and 31.1% 3-month price surge while underlying EPS growth expanded at only 9.3% YoY.
Pricing the equity at 37.1 P/E and 25.0 EV/EBITDA despite the scoring model assigning a growth factor score of only 39.8 out of 100.
One-sided media sentiment showing 10 bullish and 0 bearish reports while free cash flow per share metrics conflict between $19.73 in synthesis and $16.87 in the debate.
Revenue growth YoY drops below 10.5%.
Debt-to-equity ratio rises above 0.81.
Cash after investing
See whether TMO still makes cash after it spends to grow.
- Revenue growth YoY drops below 10.5%.
- Debt-to-equity ratio rises above 0.81.
- Revenue growth continues without margin deterioration
Monitor these triggers
3 checkpoints before the next earnings print
Revenue growth YoY against the prior quarter baseline of 10.5%.
Gross margin contracting below 41.0%.
Net margin declining below 15.0%.
Debt-to-equity ratio escalating above 0.81.
For learning and research only — not investment advice. AlphaDog doesn’t hold stocks and isn’t your financial advisor.
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