SWBI · sample dossier
Smith & Wesson Brands, Inc. Common Stock
62/100
OutdatedGenerated Aug 29, 2026 · 10:00 AM UTC · 69 days ago
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EquitySmith & Wesson Brands, Inc. Common Stock
Decision context
Recommendation
Driven by superior Growth (87/100) and Safety (85/100) scores.
More going for it than against it — worth a closer look.
AlphaDog Fair Value
Executive thesis & key metrics
Executive Investment Thesis
Smith & Wesson Brands, Inc. is a firearms manufacturer with a market capitalization of $573.05M and generated $1.88 in FCF per share alongside 26.7% YoY revenue growth. The favorable stance is supported by robust operating expansion, including 89.5% YoY EPS growth, an Altman Z-score of 5.15, and low leverage with a Debt/Equity of 0.14. However, the primary valuation risk centers on a rich P/E multiple of 31.17 against a slim net margin of 3.5%.
Key Metrics to Watch
What changed recently
No material changes found in the last 30 days.
Why this rating
Score 62 · Buy
Data through
OutdatedApr 30, 2026
Growth scores 87/100 — top-line expansion leads the profile.
Re-evaluate if
- Severe accounting disclosures (auditor / restatement / going concern) in SEC filings
- Net margin falls below 2.8% (was 3.5%)
Trim / reconsider if
- ROA falls below 2.2% (was 3.3%)
- Debt/Equity expands above 0.14
These dollars come from our value estimate and help sketch entry and exit zones. They’re a guide, not a trade order.
A Calmer Look · Devil's Advocate
The consensus 'Buy' verdict and draw ruling dangerously overlook the fragility of pricing SWBI at a trailing P/E of 31.2 against an ultra-thin net margin of just 3.5%.
May be overlooked
Vulnerability of the thin 3.5% net margin to raw material inflation, where a mere 100 bps margin contraction would erase nearly 30% of net income.
Capital allocation inefficiency evidenced by an ROA of 3.3% despite a high Piotroski F-score of 8/9.
Executive insider selling, including Mark Peter Smith's $365,475 disposal on 2026-05-01, contradicting the bullish operational narrative.
Expectations look stretched
Extrapolating 89.5% YoY EPS growth and 26.7% revenue expansion as structural rather than peak-cycle firearms demand.
Paying a premium 31.2 P/E multiple on a manufacturing business with gross margins constrained at 26.9%.
Assuming the $1.88 FCF per share is recurring without accounting for working capital normalization.
Revenue growth YoY drops below 26.7%
Revenue growth YoY drops below 26.7%
Monitor These Triggers
3 Checkpoints · Next PrintRevenue Growth YoY (baseline: 26.7%) and Net Margin (baseline: 3.5%)
Market context
Snapshot returns at report publication
1 month
-9.9%
3 months
-14.1%
6 months
+9.8%
1 year
—
At a Glance
A smaller company is in a pullback at growth-style pricing.
Top Holders
Go deeper
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