STT · sample dossier
State Street Corporation
63/100
OutdatedGenerated Oct 10, 2026 · 10:00 AM UTC · 1 hour ago
This copy is frozen (Oct 10). Sign in to run the same work — filings, valuation, bull and bear, sources — on any US stock or ETF, in about 90 seconds.
Run a fresh dossierSTT
EquityState Street CorporationXNYS
Decision context
HOLD
70% convictionThe latest quarter is more than 100 days old, so this stays a Hold.
A mixed picture — no strong reason to buy or sell right now.
The stock trades 9.3% above our estimate.
Current price
$174.96
Estimated value range
$142.26 – $163.87
Gap vs AlphaDog estimate
-9.3%
Narrow evidence — range rests on a single usable method.
The price is above our estimate, providing little valuation support.
Market context
Price
Price when available
Pick how far back the chart looks
1 month
-8.5%
3 months
-1.8%
6 months
+25.5%
1 year
+49.9%
Financial trajectory
Executive summary & thesis
State Street Corporation is a custody banking and financial services provider with a market capitalization of $48.06B, trading at a P/E multiple of 15.43 and a Price/Book ratio of 2.01.
- Second-quarter 2026 YoY EPS surged 68.2%, driven by 16.7% YoY revenue growth and a 23.0% net margin.
- Free cash flow per share stands at $7.18, supporting capital flexibility against a 49.9% 1-year price gain.
- The equity trades at a Price/Book of 2.01 while maintaining its price above the 200-day moving average.
- Return on assets is thin at 0.9%, leaving bottom-line profitability sensitive to fee compression or asset fluctuations.
- Trailing 3-month net insider selling totaled -$5.99M USD across 5 sales and 2 purchases through September 2026.
- The stock has fallen -8.5% over the past month and trades below its 50-day moving average.
Things to keep in mind
- 1Base target implies 9.3% downsideView source
- 2P/E 15.4xView source
- 3Return on assets is thin at 0.9%, leaving bottom-line profitability sensitive to fee compression or asset fluctuations.View source
What to watch next
Factor profile
Value-sensitive setup
| Factor | Score |
|---|---|
| Quality | 32 out of 100 (Weak). Business health — profits, returns, and consistency. Higher means a more durable company. |
| Growth | 77 out of 100 (Strong). How fast sales and earnings are rising. Higher means the business is expanding faster. |
| Value | 88 out of 100 (Elite). How cheap the stock looks for what you get. Higher means a more attractive price. |
| Safety | 55 out of 100 (Neutral). Balance-sheet cushion and fewer red flags. Higher means less risk of a nasty surprise. |
| Momentum | 75 out of 100 (Strong). Recent share-price trend. Higher means buyers have been in control lately. |
Another way to look at it
A calmer look at both sides of the State Street Corporation story
The consensus buy recommendation on State Street hinges on extrapolating a single blowout quarter where YoY EPS grew 68.2% and revenue rose 16.7%, ignoring severe structural and cyclical limits.
At a P/E multiple of 15.43, State Street trades at an unjustified premium to custody peer Northern Trust at 14.5 P/E and Bank of America at 12.5 P/E, despite generating an anaemic 0.9% return on assets that places its quality factor score at just 31.6 out of 100. Furthermore, price momentum has decisively broken as the stock dropped 8.5% over the past month and fell below its 50-day moving average. Insiders have already acted on this peak valuation, dumping a net $5.99M in equity over the trailing 3 months, including CEO Ronald P. O'Hanley selling 2,204 shares on 2026-08-14. When interest margins compress and fee growth normalizes, this 0.9% ROA balance sheet provides zero cushion for a multiple derating.
Complete absence of Debt/Equity and EV/EBITDA ratios in current filings, masking true balance-sheet leverage behind the 0.9% ROA.
Unexamined sensitivity of net interest margins to central bank rate regimes, despite the synthesis report noting that maintaining 16.7% YoY revenue growth is contingent on shifting rates.
Dismissal of insider distribution, where 5 insider sales totaling -$5.99M net occurred immediately following the peak Q2 earnings report.
Treating the 68.2% YoY surge in second-quarter EPS as durable rather than a peak-cycle anomaly driven by transient market tailwinds.
Assigning State Street a premium valuation of 15.43 P/E compared to direct competitor Northern Trust at 14.5 P/E, despite Northern Trust operating without State Street's 31.6 quality score penalty.
Extrapolating the 49.9% 1-year trailing price gain into the future while ignoring the immediate -8.5% 1-month drop and breach below the 50-day moving average.
Revenue growth YoY falls below the second-quarter 2026 rate of 16.7%.
Net margin contracts below the trailing twelve-month level of 23.0%.
Cash after investing
Cash-flow details are thin for STT — check the Financials tab when you can.
- Revenue growth YoY falls below the second-quarter 2026 rate of 16.7%.
- Net margin contracts below the trailing twelve-month level of 23.0%.
For learning and research only — not investment advice. AlphaDog doesn’t hold stocks and isn’t your financial advisor.
Run the next one yourself.
You just read a full STT dossier — scored verdict, valuation, and both sides, with sources. Sign in to run that on a name you hold, on current filings. A free account includes 10 credits a week, 1 per fresh run.