STLD · sample dossier
Steel Dynamics Inc
73/100
Stale StatementsGenerated Oct 17, 2026 · 10:00 AM UTC · 2 hours ago
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EquitySteel Dynamics IncXNAS
Decision context
HOLD
80% convictionThe latest quarter is more than 100 days old, so this stays a Hold.
A mixed picture — no strong reason to buy or sell right now.
The stock trades 27.0% above our estimate.
Current price
$240.54
Estimated value range
$129.01 – $243.04
Gap vs AlphaDog estimate
-27.0%
The price is above our estimate, providing little valuation support.
Market context
Price
Price when available
Pick how far back the chart looks
1 month
-2.0%
3 months
+4.4%
6 months
+20.1%
1 year
+64.7%
Financial trajectory
Executive summary & thesis
Steel Dynamics Inc is a domestic steel producer with a market capitalization of $34.48B, trading at a P/E ratio of 21.81 and an EV/EBITDA of 14.30.
- Latest quarter YoY EPS expanded 83.6%, demonstrating significant operational leverage and earnings power.
- Latest quarter YoY revenue surged 33.4%, driven by strong domestic shipment volumes and steel demand.
- Financial stability is underscored by a safe Altman Z-score of 5.27 and low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.47.
- Valuation multiple expansion leaves downside risk with P/E at 21.81, above peer Commercial Metals Company's 11.1 P/E.
- Profitability buffers remain thin, as trailing net margin is just 7.8% alongside a gross margin of 14.7%.
- Operational quality signals are mixed, reflected in an unexceptional Piotroski F-score of 5 out of 9.
Things to keep in mind
- 1Base target implies 27.0% downsideView source
- 2P/E 21.8xView source
- 3Net margin 7.8%View source
What to watch next
What changed recently
No material changes found in the last 30 days.
Why this rating
The latest quarter is more than 100 days old, so this stays a Hold.
Data through
Stale StatementsJun 30, 2026
A newer quarter has been reported and is not in these statements. The rating is capped at Hold until the statements catch up.
Factor profile
Growth-led profile
| Factor | Score |
|---|---|
| Quality | 46 out of 100 (Neutral). Business health — profits, returns, and consistency. Higher means a more durable company. |
| Growth | 93 out of 100 (Elite). How fast sales and earnings are rising. Higher means the business is expanding faster. |
| Value | 68 out of 100 (Neutral). How cheap the stock looks for what you get. Higher means a more attractive price. |
| Safety | 79 out of 100 (Strong). Balance-sheet cushion and fewer red flags. Higher means less risk of a nasty surprise. |
| Momentum | 89 out of 100 (Elite). Recent share-price trend. Higher means buyers have been in control lately. |
Another way to look at it
A calmer look at both sides of the Steel Dynamics Inc story
The consensus 'Buy' verdict and bull debate victory extrapolate peak-cycle operational leverage into an unsustainable multiple, ignoring that a P/E of 21.8 and EV/EBITDA of 14.3 represent historical cycle-top valuations for a commodity steel producer.
Steel Dynamics is priced for flawless execution after a 64.7% 1-year run, trading at a 96% multiple premium over peer Commercial Metals Company's 11.1 P/E despite defending a slim 7.8% net margin. The consensus fundamentally overlooks that trailing free cash flow of $1.63 per share generates a negligible 0.68% yield on the $240.54 share price, leaving no valuation cushion if volume momentum normalizes. Furthermore, a mediocre Piotroski F-score of 5/9 signals that underlying operational quality is stagnating rather than structurally improving. With the 1-month return contracting -2.0%, the market is already showing early signs of multiple rejection at $34.48B market cap.
Severe free cash flow disconnect
the bear's citation of $1.63 TTM FCF per share against a $240.54 price (0.68% yield) exposes working capital absorption that contradicts the synthesis report's $6.61 per share narrative.
A Piotroski F-score of 5 out of 9 signals that fundamental operational efficiency is flat to deteriorating across 4 of 9 balance sheet checkpoints despite reported 83.6% YoY EPS growth.
Cyclical vulnerability of operating margins: with gross margin at 14.7% and net margin at 7.8%, a modest 200-300 bps contraction in steel pricing spreads would wipe out roughly a third of bottom-line net income.
Extrapolating single-quarter YoY EPS expansion of 83.6% and revenue growth of 33.4% as secular compounding rather than cyclical operating leverage at peak steel shipments.
Touting insider buying as a bullish signal when the recorded insider purchases totaled an economically negligible 341 shares on 2026-10-09 against a $34.48B market capitalization.
Treating the 1-year price gain of 64.7% as validation of safety while dismissing the -2.0% 1-month decline as benign consolidation.
Latest quarter YoY revenue growth decelerates from 33.4% to below 10.0%.
Gross margin compresses below the current 14.7% level.
Cash after investing
See whether Steel Dynamics Inc still makes cash after it spends to grow.
- Latest quarter YoY revenue growth decelerates from 33.4% to below 10.0%.
- Gross margin compresses below the current 14.7% level.
- Free cash flow per share falls below the current $6.61.
For learning and research only — not investment advice. AlphaDog doesn’t hold stocks and isn’t your financial advisor.
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