SGI · sample dossier
Somnigroup International Inc.
46/100
OutdatedGenerated Nov 7, 2026 · 11:00 AM UTC · 1 day ago
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EquitySomnigroup International Inc. · XNYS
Decision context
Recommendation
Balanced between solid Quality (71/100) and constrained Growth (28/100).
A mixed picture — no strong reason to buy or sell right now.
AlphaDog Fair Value
Executive thesis & key metrics
Executive Investment Thesis
Somnigroup International Inc. is a global bedding manufacturer and retailer operating Tempur Sealy and Mattress Firm with a market capitalization of $14.77B and a TTM P/E multiple of 25.57. The Hold stance aligns with top-line contraction shown by -3.0% YoY revenue growth and elevated leverage at 1.98 Debt/Equity, offset by 10.6% YoY EPS growth and a 44.7% gross margin. The primary risk is balance sheet vulnerability, underscored by an Altman Z-score of 2.25 in the grey zone and high Debt/Equity of 1.98 amid a -19.4% 1-year price decline.
Key Metrics to Watch
What changed recently
No material changes found in the last 30 days.
Why this rating
Score 46 · Hold
Data through
OutdatedJun 30, 2026
A newer quarter has been reported and is not in these statements.
Composite 46/100 — no single factor above 75 dominates.
Re-evaluate if
- Net margin falls below 5.6% (was 7.0%)
Trim / reconsider if
- ROA falls below 3.6% (was 5.5%)
- Debt/Equity expands above 1.98.
Think of these dollars as a map of our value estimate for Hold — helpful context, not a reason to override the view.
A Calmer Look · Devil's Advocate
Both sides of the Somnigroup International Inc. story, next to the Hold above
The consensus 'Hold' verdict dangerously understates the multiple risk embedded in Somnigroup International.
May be overlooked
Reliance on stale guidance
Consensus models depend on revised financial guidance from the 2026-08-06 Form 8-K, which is over 90 days old as of 2026-11-07 and omits autumn retail bedding demand trends.
Debt service vs. capital return conflict
The recurring $0.17 quarterly dividend is framed as safe against $3.62 FCF per share, ignoring that de-risking a 1.98 Debt/Equity ratio and a 2.25 Altman Z-score in the grey zone will severely restrict capital returns.
Asset productivity drag
A modest 5.5% ROA reveals that the capital-heavy retail footprint of Mattress Firm is suppressing overall asset efficiency without delivering operating leverage.
Expectations look stretched
Over-indexing on insider signaling
Extrapolating a bullish operational inflection from CEO Scott Thompson's $1.89M share purchase on 2026-08-27, which represents a negligible 0.013% of SGI's $14.77B market capitalization.
Gross margin durability assumptions
Projecting that the 44.7% gross margin can hold steady without promotional discounting while top-line revenue contracts -3.0% YoY.
EPS trend cherry-picking
Celebrating the latest quarter's 10.6% YoY EPS growth while ignoring the broader 37.3% profit collapse from $0.83 in Q3 2025 to $0.52 in Q2 2026.
Revenue Growth YoY deteriorates below -3.0%.
Revenue Growth YoY deteriorates below -3.0%.
Monitor These Triggers
3 Checkpoints · Next PrintMarket context
Snapshot returns at report publication
1 month
+2.9%
3 months
-1.0%
6 months
-7.4%
1 year
-19.4%
At a Glance
A large company is in a pullback at growth-style pricing.
Top Holders
As of Jun 30, 2026Financial trajectory
Financial Performance
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