RTX · sample dossier
RTX Corporation
55/100
FreshGenerated Oct 17, 2026 · 10:00 AM UTC · 2 hours ago
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EquityRTX CorporationXNYS
Decision context
HOLD
74% convictionScore 55 · Hold
A mixed picture — no strong reason to buy or sell right now.
The stock trades 10.6% above our estimate.
Current price
$193.92
Estimated value range
$133.55 – $245.18
Gap vs AlphaDog estimate
-10.6%
Supporting methods disagree by 60% — midpoint is illustrative, not a precise target.
The price is above our estimate, providing little valuation support.
Market context
Price
Price when available
Pick how far back the chart looks
1 month
+0.2%
3 months
-0.3%
6 months
-1.3%
1 year
+23.5%
Financial trajectory
Executive summary & thesis
RTX Corporation is an aerospace and defense contractor with a market capitalization of $261.36B, generating $8.05 in free cash flow per share and maintaining a gross margin of 20.3%.
- Quarterly YoY EPS surged 28.7% alongside 14.5% revenue growth, demonstrating expanding operational leverage in core defense programs.
- Generates substantial cash returns with free cash flow per share of $8.05 and a robust Piotroski F-score of 8/9.
- Delivered a 23.5% one-year total return while keeping the Debt/Equity ratio manageable at 0.57.
- Valuation is stretched at a P/E of 34.14 and EV/EBITDA of 18.48, compared to peer Lockheed Martin at 20.3 P/E.
- Altman Z-score of 2.75 remains in the grey zone, while asset productivity is subdued at 4.2% ROA.
- Near-term price momentum is negative with a 6-month return of -1.3%, trading below both MA50 and MA200.
Things to keep in mind
- 1Base target implies 10.6% downsideView source
- 2P/E 34.1xView source
- 3Valuation is stretched at a P/E of 34.14 and EV/EBITDA of 18.48, compared to peer Lockheed Martin at 20.3 P/E.View source
What to watch next
What changed recently
No material changes found in the last 30 days.
Why this rating
Score 55 · Hold
Data through
FreshJun 30, 2026
Factor profile
Balanced operator
| Factor | Score |
|---|---|
| Quality | 53 out of 100 (Neutral). Business health — profits, returns, and consistency. Higher means a more durable company. |
| Growth | 63 out of 100 (Neutral). How fast sales and earnings are rising. Higher means the business is expanding faster. |
| Value | 51 out of 100 (Neutral). How cheap the stock looks for what you get. Higher means a more attractive price. |
| Safety | 70 out of 100 (Neutral). Balance-sheet cushion and fewer red flags. Higher means less risk of a nasty surprise. |
| Momentum | 33 out of 100 (Weak). Recent share-price trend. Higher means buyers have been in control lately. |
Another way to look at it
A calmer look at both sides of the RTX Corporation story
The prevailing consensus treats RTX Corporation as a comfortable Hold, but this complacency masks an extreme valuation disconnect relative to its operating efficiency.
RTX trades at a punitive P/E of 34.1 and an EV/EBITDA of 18.5, demanding a staggering premium over defense peers Lockheed Martin at 20.3 and Northrop Grumman at 16.5. Despite this premium, RTX generates an anemic ROA of 4.2% and a modest net margin of 8.3%, proving its underlying capital productivity is structurally mediocre. Furthermore, the consensus relies on stale financial metrics from the June 30, 2026 quarter that are over 100 days old as of October 17, 2026. With the Altman Z-score stalled in the grey zone at 2.75 and technical breakdown confirmed by trading below both the MA50 and MA200, the stock has no valuation buffer if procurement cycles decelerate. Investors should actively fade the prevailing consensus before mean-reversion re-rates RTX toward historical peer multiples.
Consensus completely ignores peer multiple dispersion, awarding RTX a 34.1 P/E compared to Lockheed Martin at 20.3 and Northrop Grumman at 16.5 without evidence of superior margins or moat.
Financial disclosures cited in the synthesis date back to the June 30, 2026 quarter, making operational data over 100 days old and stale as of October 17, 2026.
Neither side addresses fixed-price contract liabilities or supply-chain cost absorption that directly threaten the fragile 8.3% net margin.
Extrapolating a single quarter of 28.7% EPS growth to justify a rich EV/EBITDA of 18.5 on an asset base yielding only 4.2% ROA.
Treating a Debt/Equity ratio of 0.57 as low leverage while discounting an Altman Z-score of 2.75 that remains mired in the grey distress zone.
Assuming $8.05 in free cash flow per share represents permanent structural conversion rather than working capital timing benefits.
Revenue growth YoY drops below the latest quarter benchmark of 14.5%.
Debt/Equity expands above the current 0.57 level.
Cash after investing
See whether RTX Corporation still makes cash after it spends to grow.
- Revenue growth YoY drops below the latest quarter benchmark of 14.5%.
- Debt/Equity expands above the current 0.57 level.
For learning and research only — not investment advice. AlphaDog doesn’t hold stocks and isn’t your financial advisor.
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