RIVN · sample dossier
Rivian Automotive, Inc. Class A Common Stock
42/100
AgingGenerated Oct 18, 2026 · 2:28 AM UTC · 15 hours ago
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EquityRivian Automotive, Inc. Class A Common StockXNAS
Decision context
AVOID
35% convictionScore 42 · Avoid
Downsides look heavier than upsides — we wouldn’t start a new position.
No estimated value range on this report
Current price
$12.42
Estimated value range
—
Gap (vs price at analysis)
—
AlphaDog could not produce an estimate from comps or DCF. Analyst targets are shown separately and are not the AlphaDog estimate. EPS unavailable from quote and financials — comparable multiples skipped. FCF/share missing or non-positive — DCF skipped.
Estimated value range is unavailable for this instrument.
Market context
Price
Price when available
Pick how far back the chart looks
1 month
-19.4%
3 months
-28.0%
6 months
-27.9%
1 year
-7.4%
Financial trajectory
Executive summary & thesis
Rivian Automotive, Inc. Class A Common Stock (RIVN) trades at $12.42 with a $17.98B market capitalization as of 2026-10-18, generating a TTM gross margin of 7.5% and a Price/Book ratio of 3.31.
- Top-line expansion remains brisk, with quarterly revenue growing 27.2% YoY as of 2026-10-18.
- RIVN achieved a positive TTM gross margin of 7.5%, demonstrating unit-level gross profitability as of 2026-10-18.
- A Beneish M-score of -8.08 indicates a low probability of accounting earnings manipulation.
- Altman Z-score sits at 1.44 in the distress zone, compounded by negative TTM FCF of -$2.63 per share [c5, c6].
- Severe bottom-line losses persist with a TTM net margin of -55.0%, TTM ROA of -14.4%, and EV/EBITDA of -6.65.
- Ongoing capital needs drove 14.7% YoY share dilution alongside a 1.04 TTM Debt/Equity ratio [c4, c7].
Things to keep in mind
- 1P/E -4.8xView source
- 2Debt/Equity 1.04View source
- 3Net margin -55.0%View source
What to watch next
What changed recently
No material changes found in the last 30 days.
Why this rating
Score 42 · Avoid
Data through
AgingJun 30, 2026
Factor profile
Balanced operator
| Factor | Score |
|---|---|
| Quality | 30 out of 100 (Weak). Business health — profits, returns, and consistency. Higher means a more durable company. |
| Growth | 75 out of 100 (Strong). How fast sales and earnings are rising. Higher means the business is expanding faster. |
| Value | 45 out of 100 (Neutral). How cheap the stock looks for what you get. Higher means a more attractive price. |
| Safety | 45 out of 100 (Neutral). Balance-sheet cushion and fewer red flags. Higher means less risk of a nasty surprise. |
| Momentum | 9 out of 100 (Weak). Recent share-price trend. Higher means buyers have been in control lately. |
Another way to look at it
What the optimistic case might still be missing about RIVN
The prevailing bearish consensus (Composite Score 42/100, Verdict 'Avoid') and the debate judge's ruling extrapolate backward-looking TTM solvency metrics while ignoring the structural inflection of a positive 7.5% TTM gross margin and 27.2% YoY revenue growth.
Crucially, the underlying Q2 2026 financial period ended June 30, 2026 (along with preliminary releases on 2026-07-06, 2026-07-09, and 2026-04-30) is over 90 days old relative to 2026-10-18 and must be flagged as stale, meaning the consensus relies on lagging balance-sheet snapshots to justify its distress thesis. While the bear case fixates on an Altman Z-score of 1.44 and a -55.0% net margin, the stock's 28.0% three-month and 19.4% one-month price declines suggest these historical losses are already heavily discounted at $12.42 ($17.98B market cap). Meanwhile, the bull camp is equally flawed, leaning on static institutional holdings like Amazon's 158.4M shares and a 67th percentile Value ranking that is nonsensical given a -6.65 EV/EBITDA and 3.31 P/B ratio. Ultimately, the consensus is trapped in a backward-looking feedback loop, treating past capital intensity (-$2.63/share FCF and 14.7% share dilution) as permanent just as unit economics turn positive.
The consensus completely omits customer concentration and commercial contract risk tied to its largest institutional holder, Amazon.com, Inc. (158,363,834 shares), failing to quantify how much of the 27.2% YoY revenue growth depends on a single commercial buyer.
Both sides ignore the operational contents of recent SEC filings on 2026-08-27, 2026-10-02, and 2026-10-07, while relying on financial period data ended June 30, 2026 (and filings from 2026-07-09 and earlier) that are older than 90 days and explicitly stale.
The synthesis report classifies insider activity as a 'bullish cluster' (4 buys, 4 sales) without reconciling that net 3-month volume is -47,130 shares (-$788,409) driven by open-market sales from the CFO ($721,878 total across 2026-08-15 and 2026-08-20) and two CAOs ($781,153 combined) with zero 10b5-1 plan protection.
Bulls extrapolate a 7.5% TTM gross margin and 27.2% YoY quarterly revenue growth ($1.66B for the stale period ended June 30, 2026) as proof of scaling, ignoring that TTM net margin sits at -55.0% and ROA at -14.4%, showing massive unabsorbed operating overhead.
The bull case cites a 67th percentile Value peer ranking as a positive catalyst despite the company trading at a 3.31 Price/Book ratio with a -4.81 P/E and -6.65 EV/EBITDA.
Bulls treat passive or legacy holdings by Amazon (158.4M shares) and Blackrock (56.4M shares) as active fundamental validation, ignoring that institutional ownership did not prevent a 27.9% six-month and 19.4% one-month price collapse.
TTM gross margin expands above 7.5% while quarterly YoY revenue growth remains at or above 27.2% [c2, c3].
TTM net margin narrows above -55.0% and TTM FCF/Share improves above -$2.63 [c4, c6].
Cash after investing
See whether RIVN still makes cash after it spends to grow.
- TTM gross margin expands above 7.5% while quarterly YoY revenue growth remains at or above 27.2% [c2, c3].
- TTM net margin narrows above -55.0% and TTM FCF/Share improves above -$2.63 [c4, c6].
- Net margin expands above -55.0% for two consecutive quarters
Monitor these triggers
3 checkpoints before the next earnings print
TTM Gross Margin (7.5% baseline as of 2026-10-18) alongside quarterly YoY Revenue Growth (27.2% baseline as of 2026-10-18) [c2, c3].
Quarterly YoY revenue growth decelerates below the 27.2% rate recorded as of 2026-10-18.
TTM gross margin falls below 7.5%, erasing unit-level gross profitability.
TTM Debt/Equity rises above 1.04 while Altman Z remains in distress at or below 1.44 [c4, c5].
For learning and research only — not investment advice. AlphaDog doesn’t hold stocks and isn’t your financial advisor.
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