RH · sample dossier
RH
29/100
OutdatedGenerated Sep 5, 2026 · 10:00 AM UTC · 62 days ago
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EquityPublic company · XNYS
Decision context
Recommendation
Weighed down by weak Growth (8/100) and Momentum (13/100) scores.
A cautious picture — if you own it, consider taking some off.
AlphaDog Fair Value
Executive thesis & key metrics
Executive Investment Thesis
Ticker RH carries a market capitalization of $2.80B at a share price of $147.99, trading at an EV/EBITDA of 13.79 and a gross margin of 43.5%. Operational results reflect steep earnings deterioration with revenue declining -1.7% YoY and EPS contracting -282.5% YoY, leaving a net margin of 3.0%. The primary risk is an overleveraged capital structure, evidenced by a Debt/Equity ratio of 70.60 and an Altman Z-score of 1.39 in the distress zone.
Key Metrics to Watch
What changed recently
No material changes found in the last 30 days.
Why this rating
Score 29 · Sell
Data through
OutdatedApr 30, 2026
Composite 29/100 — weak across most factors.
Re-evaluate if
- Severe accounting disclosures (auditor / restatement / going concern) in SEC filings
- Net margin falls below 2.4% (was 3.0%)
Trim / reconsider if
- ROA falls below 2.9% (was 4.4%)
- Debt/Equity ratio increases above 70.60.
Think of these dollars as a map of our value estimate for Sell — helpful context, not a reason to override the view.
A Calmer Look · Devil's Advocate
The prevailing consensus is overwhelmingly bearish, concluding RH is bound for solvency distress based on an Altman Z-score of 1.39 and an alarming Debt/Equity ratio of 70.60.
May be overlooked
The bear consensus relies on an Altman Z-score of 1.39 and Debt/Equity of 70.60 without adjusting for equity depletion caused by historical share buybacks rather than operational losses.
The synthesis report overlooks the debt coverage power of $15.08 FCF per share against the $147.99 share price, contradicting immediate default assumptions.
The analysis depends on financial statements and a 10-K from 2025-04-02 that are older than 90 days, failing to account for balance sheet adjustments in mid-2026 8-K filings.
Expectations look stretched
Bull arguments touting 7 insider purchase transactions ignore net insider distribution of -$19.69M (-115,787 shares) over the past 3 months, including sales by the CEO.
Extrapolating $15.08 FCF per share into the future is over-optimistic when net margin has compressed to 3.0% and ROA sits at just 4.4%.
Bulls assume gross margin resilience at 43.5% guarantees safety, ignoring that operating leverage collapses rapidly when EPS contracts -282.5% YoY.
Revenue growth YoY improves above -1.7%.
Revenue growth YoY improves above -1.7%.
Monitor These Triggers
0 Checkpoints · Next PrintEPS Growth YoY (baseline: -282.5%)
Market context
Snapshot returns at report publication
1 month
-21.3%
3 months
+0.9%
6 months
+4.1%
1 year
-37.1%
At a Glance
A mid-sized company is in a pullback at growth-style pricing.
Top Holders
Financial trajectory
Financial Performance
Go deeper
For learning and research only — not investment advice. AlphaDog doesn’t hold stocks and isn’t your financial advisor.
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