REX · sample dossier
REX American Resources Corp.
68/100
OutdatedGenerated Aug 29, 2026 · 10:00 AM UTC · 69 days ago
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EquityREX American Resources Corp.
Decision context
Recommendation
Driven by superior Safety (86/100) and Value (82/100) scores.
More going for it than against it — worth a closer look.
AlphaDog Fair Value
Executive thesis & key metrics
Executive Investment Thesis
REX American Resources Corp. operates in ethanol and by-products with a market capitalization of $1.36B, trading at a P/E multiple of 14.77 and EV/EBITDA of 12.31. The profile is supported by a 14.1% net margin, 119.6% YoY EPS growth, and minimal financial leverage with a Debt/Equity ratio of 0.03. The primary risk centers on top-line revenue contraction of -1.2% YoY alongside a 3-month share price decline of -15.1% and a July 5, 2023 auditor change.
Key Metrics to Watch
What changed recently
No material changes found in the last 30 days.
Why this rating
Score 68 · Buy
Data through
OutdatedApr 30, 2026
Safety 86/100 — Debt/Equity 0.03.
Levels unavailable — AlphaDog quantitative valuation model did not produce an estimate from comps or DCF
Re-evaluate if
- Severe accounting disclosures (auditor / restatement / going concern) in SEC filings
- Net margin falls below 11.3% (was 14.1%)
- Revenue Growth YoY below -1.2%
Trim / reconsider if
- ROA falls below 3.9% (was 6.0%)
- Debt/Equity increases meaningfully above 0.03.
Dollar levels aren’t available for this run — the view above still stands.
A Calmer Look · Devil's Advocate
The consensus 'Buy' thesis relies heavily on backward-looking valuation metrics that mask acute cyclical mean-reversion in commodity ethanol spreads.
May be overlooked
The extreme sensitivity of the 14.1% net margin to commodity crush spreads when gross margins are thin at 16.5%, leaving negligible operating buffer.
Executive Chairman Stuart Rose dumped over $3.69M in equity across June 17-18, 2026, directly contradicting the consensus value narrative.
Governance uncertainty highlighted by successive 8-K management changes across June and July 2026 following a formal auditor change.
Expectations look stretched
Treating the 119.6% YoY EPS growth as a durable baseline when sequential EPS dropped 57.6% from $1.32 (Jan 2026) to $0.56 (Apr 2026).
Extrapolating valuation safety from a 14.77 trailing P/E that is calculated on peak cyclical earnings rather than normalized mid-cycle profits.
Assuming an Altman Z-score of 11.24 provides a floor for equity value when commodity ethanol margins can compress without triggering corporate insolvency.
Gross margin drops below 16.5% or net margin falls below 14.1%.
Gross margin drops below 16.5% or net margin falls below 14.1%.
Monitor These Triggers
2 Checkpoints · Next PrintRevenue Growth YoY (current baseline: -1.2%) and Net Margin (current baseline: 14.1%)
Market context
Snapshot returns at report publication
1 month
-2.9%
3 months
-15.1%
6 months
+14.6%
1 year
—
At a Glance
A smaller company has mixed momentum at modest pricing.
Top Holders
Go deeper
For learning and research only — not investment advice. AlphaDog doesn’t hold stocks and isn’t your financial advisor.
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