PM · sample dossier
Philip Morris International Inc.
57/100
Stale StatementsGenerated Oct 17, 2026 · 10:00 AM UTC · 2 hours ago
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EquityPhilip Morris International Inc.XNYS
Decision context
HOLD
66% convictionScore 57 · Hold
A mixed picture — no strong reason to buy or sell right now.
The stock trades 44.5% above our estimate.
Current price
$205.20
Estimated value range
$93.04 – $165.66
Gap vs AlphaDog estimate
-44.5%
The price is above our estimate, providing little valuation support.
Market context
Price
Price when available
Pick how far back the chart looks
1 month
+7.7%
3 months
+6.5%
6 months
+30.0%
1 year
+30.1%
Financial trajectory
Executive summary & thesis
Philip Morris International Inc. operates as a global tobacco and smoke-free product manufacturer with a market capitalization of $319.83B, a TTM gross margin of 67.5%, and free cash flow per share of $8.16 (four-quarter statements).
- Generates cash return strength with $8.16 TTM free cash flow per share and a 25.6% net margin.
- Revenue expanded 10.4% YoY in the quarter ended 2026-06-30, supported by smoke-free reach in 109 markets as of 2026-06-30.
- Demonstrates price momentum with a 1-year return of 30.1% while maintaining trading levels above its 200-day moving average.
- Valuation stands at an elevated 29.48 TTM P/E, trading at a substantial premium against peer Altria's 15.8 P/E.
- Profitability weakened as EPS growth contracted 7.7% YoY in the quarter ended 2026-06-30.
- Disclosed a $41 million Swedish Match goodwill impairment on 2026-07-24 while balance sheet Debt/Equity is Not publicly available.
Things to keep in mind
- 1Base target implies 44.5% downsideView source
- 2P/E 29.5xView source
- 3Valuation stands at an elevated 29.48 TTM P/E, trading at a substantial premium against peer Altria's 15.8 P/E.View source
What to watch next
What changed recently
No material changes found in the last 30 days.
Why this rating
Score 57 · Hold
Data through
Stale StatementsJun 30, 2026
A newer quarter has been reported and is not in these statements. The rating is capped at Hold until the statements catch up.
Factor profile
Momentum-led profile
| Factor | Score |
|---|---|
| Quality | 79 out of 100 (Strong). Business health — profits, returns, and consistency. Higher means a more durable company. |
| Growth | 23 out of 100 (Weak). How fast sales and earnings are rising. Higher means the business is expanding faster. |
| Value | 47 out of 100 (Neutral). How cheap the stock looks for what you get. Higher means a more attractive price. |
| Safety | 51 out of 100 (Neutral). Balance-sheet cushion and fewer red flags. Higher means less risk of a nasty surprise. |
| Momentum | 86 out of 100 (Elite). Recent share-price trend. Higher means buyers have been in control lately. |
Another way to look at it
A calmer look at both sides of the PM story
The consensus verdict of 'Hold' underestimates severe downside risk created by paying high-growth tech multiples for a contracting bottom line.
While revenue rose 10.4% YoY in the quarter ended 2026-06-30, EPS actually contracted 7.7% YoY, signaling acute cost deleverage that neither the bulls nor the neutral consensus adequately penalize. At an EV/EBITDA of 20.25 and a P/E of 29.48—more than double peer Altria's 9.4 EV/EBITDA and 15.8 P/E—the equity is priced for perfection with zero margin of safety. Furthermore, market participants treat balance sheet risk as neutral simply because Debt-to-Equity is undisclosed, ignoring the recent $41 million Swedish Match goodwill impairment that demonstrates integration friction and capital misallocation. Extrapolating a 30.1% 1-year price return while earnings quality deteriorates exposes investors to severe multiple compression toward historical tobacco peer norms.
Unquantified balance sheet leverage
Debt-to-Equity and Price-to-Book ratios are completely missing from public data, masking potential solvency constraints following the debt-financed Swedish Match acquisition.
Earnings quality divergence
Revenue grew 10.4% YoY to $11.19B in the quarter ended 2026-06-30 while diluted EPS declined 7.7% YoY, an operational margin squeeze that consensus treats as temporary without supporting evidence.
Stale disclosure reliance
Key valuation policies rely on 10-K disclosures from 2026-02-06 and insider buying has been flat since 2026-05-06, both exceeding the 90-day threshold for fresh reporting.
Extreme valuation divergence
Trading at an EV/EBITDA of 20.25 and a P/E of 29.48 represents an unsustainable 115% and 87% premium over Altria's 9.4 EV/EBITDA and 15.8 P/E, respectively.
Growth factor mismatch
The stock carries a bottom-quintile growth factor score of 22.7 out of 100, yet its valuation multiple ranks in the 0th percentile for peer value.
Extrapolation of price momentum
Bulls cite the 30.1% 1-year gain and trading above the 200-day moving average as fundamental justification, confusing trailing price action with sustained competitive moat.
Revenue growth YoY falls below 10.4%.
EPS growth YoY fails to recover above -7.7%.
Cash after investing
See whether PM still makes cash after it spends to grow.
- Revenue growth YoY falls below 10.4%.
- EPS growth YoY fails to recover above -7.7%.
- Revenue growth continues without margin deterioration
Monitor these triggers
3 checkpoints before the next earnings print
Revenue Growth YoY (current baseline: 10.4%) and EPS Growth YoY (current baseline: -7.7%)
EPS growth YoY drops further below -7.7%.
Net margin declines below 25.6%.
Revenue growth YoY decelerates below 10.4%.
For learning and research only — not investment advice. AlphaDog doesn’t hold stocks and isn’t your financial advisor.
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