PLD · sample dossier
PROLOGIS, INC.
54/100
OutdatedGenerated Oct 10, 2026 · 10:00 AM UTC · 3 hours ago
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EquityPROLOGIS, INC.XNYS
Decision context
HOLD
70% convictionScore 54 · Hold
A mixed picture — no strong reason to buy or sell right now.
The stock trades 28.3% above our estimate.
Current price
$129.49
Estimated value range
$74.83 – $148.63
Gap vs AlphaDog estimate
-28.3%
The price is above our estimate, providing little valuation support.
Market context
Price
Price when available
Pick how far back the chart looks
1 month
-3.7%
3 months
-8.9%
6 months
-5.6%
1 year
+11.6%
Financial trajectory
Executive summary & thesis
PROLOGIS, INC. operates as an industrial logistics REIT with a market capitalization of $125.88B and a TTM gross margin of 75.5%.
- In the quarter reported 2026-07-16, EPS expanded 85.2% YoY, supported by 11.1% revenue growth and pricing power.
- Robust cash conversion generates $5.47 in TTM free cash flow per share alongside an expansive 75.5% gross margin.
- A prudent debt-to-equity ratio of 0.64 preserves balance sheet resilience relative to broader real estate leverage.
- Valuation remains demanding at 28.78 P/E and 23.84 EV/EBITDA, leaving no room for operational deceleration.
- Negative tape momentum persists with a -8.9% 3-month return, and price trades below both 50-day and 200-day moving averages.
- CEO Hamid Moghadam sold $7.50M in stock (50,000 shares) on 2026-07-16, driving net 3-month insider outflows.
Things to keep in mind
- 1Base target implies 28.3% downsideView source
- 2P/E 28.8xView source
- 3Valuation remains demanding at 28.78 P/E and 23.84 EV/EBITDA, leaving no room for operational deceleration.View source
What to watch next
Factor profile
Balanced operator
| Factor | Score |
|---|---|
| Quality | 64 out of 100 (Neutral). Business health — profits, returns, and consistency. Higher means a more durable company. |
| Growth | 71 out of 100 (Strong). How fast sales and earnings are rising. Higher means the business is expanding faster. |
| Value | 55 out of 100 (Neutral). How cheap the stock looks for what you get. Higher means a more attractive price. |
| Safety | 44 out of 100 (Neutral). Balance-sheet cushion and fewer red flags. Higher means less risk of a nasty surprise. |
| Momentum | 25 out of 100 (Weak). Recent share-price trend. Higher means buyers have been in control lately. |
Another way to look at it
A calmer look at both sides of the PROLOGIS, INC. story
The prevailing consensus and debate victory favor Prologis based on backward-looking gross margins of 75.5% and net margins of 43.6%, while completely ignoring that capital productivity is fundamentally anemic at an ROA of just 2.5%.
Paying an elevated valuation of 28.8 P/E and 23.8 EV/EBITDA leaves zero cushion for demand normalization, especially when peer TRNO trades at a much cheaper 17.4 P/E. Underlying operational quality is suspect, as evidenced by a weak Piotroski F-Score of 4/9 and an Altman Z-score of 2.80 lingering in the grey zone. The bear side failed completely in the debate by fixating on benign Regulation FD filings, allowing bulls to win by default despite the stock sinking below both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages. With CEO Hamid Moghadam liquidating $7.50M in stock on 2026-07-16 amid a -8.9% 3-month drawdown, treating 11.1% revenue growth as a secular moat represents dangerous herd complacency.
Neither the synthesis report nor the debate examined the severe disconnect between a 43.6% net margin and an ROA of only 2.5%, exposing highly inefficient balance sheet asset utilization on a $125.88B market cap base.
The bear debate advocate squandered its case by attacking routine Item 7.01 Regulation FD filings, leaving major fundamental vulnerabilities—such as an Altman Z-score of 2.80 in the grey zone and 0.64 Debt/Equity—entirely unscrutinized.
The consensus dismissed the CEO selling 50,000 shares ($7.50M) on 2026-07-16 as routine, ignoring that insider distribution coincided with technical breakdowns below both the 50-day and 200-day moving averages.
Uncritically extrapolating Q2 2026 EPS growth of 85.2% and revenue growth of 11.1% into the future while a Piotroski F-score of 4/9 indicates stagnant or deteriorating operational quality.
Assigning a rich 23.8 EV/EBITDA and 2.3 P/B multiple to a real estate portfolio showing negative momentum with a -8.9% 3-month return and a -3.7% 1-month return.
Assuming the 75.5% gross margin can withstand softening demand when public media sentiment displays 5 bearish articles against 0 bullish items as of 2026-10-10.
Revenue growth YoY falls below the latest reported 11.1%.
Gross margin contracts below 75.5%.
Cash after investing
See whether PROLOGIS, INC. still makes cash after it spends to grow.
- Revenue growth YoY falls below the latest reported 11.1%.
- Gross margin contracts below 75.5%.
- Revenue growth continues without margin deterioration
Monitor these triggers
3 checkpoints before the next earnings print
Revenue growth YoY (current baseline: 11.1% in Q2 2026 reported 2026-07-16) to determine if rental pricing power remains durable.
Revenue growth YoY decelerating below 11.1% on softening warehouse demand.
Net margin contracting below 43.6% alongside Debt-to-Equity rising above 0.64.
Return on assets (ROA) deteriorating below 2.5%.
For learning and research only — not investment advice. AlphaDog doesn’t hold stocks and isn’t your financial advisor.
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