PG · sample dossier
Procter & Gamble Company
51/100
FreshGenerated Oct 17, 2026 · 10:00 AM UTC · 2 hours ago
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EquityProcter & Gamble CompanyXNYS
Decision context
HOLD
66% convictionScore 51 · Hold
A mixed picture — no strong reason to buy or sell right now.
The stock trades 5.9% above our estimate.
Current price
$159.35
Estimated value range
$103.92 – $220.19
Gap vs AlphaDog estimate
-5.9%
The price is above our estimate, providing little valuation support.
Market context
Price
Price when available
Pick how far back the chart looks
1 month
+8.0%
3 months
+6.9%
6 months
+8.5%
1 year
+8.1%
Financial trajectory
Executive summary & thesis
The Procter & Gamble Company is a consumer goods corporation with a market capitalization of $370.12B trading at $159.35, generating a 50.9% gross margin and an 18.4% net margin.
- Strong cash generation supports the thesis, generating $6.28 free cash flow per share and a 10.7% ROA.
- Pricing power and brand moat sustain a 50.9% gross margin alongside an 18.4% net margin.
- Leverage remains well managed with a 0.64 Debt/Equity ratio and a safe Altman Z-score of 4.76.
- Latest quarterly EPS contracted by -14.9% YoY, reflecting significant profitability deterioration despite product pricing power.
- Top-line expansion is stagnant, recording only 1.5% YoY revenue growth in the latest reported quarter.
- Valuation is elevated at a 24.07 P/E and 16.02 EV/EBITDA, running at a premium to peer PEP's 16.5 P/E.
Things to keep in mind
- 1Base target implies 5.9% downsideView source
- 2P/E 24.1xView source
- 3Latest quarterly EPS contracted by -14.9% YoY, reflecting significant profitability deterioration despite product pricing power.View source
What to watch next
What changed recently
No material changes found in the last 30 days.
Why this rating
Score 51 · Hold
Data through
FreshJun 30, 2026
Factor profile
Balanced operator
| Factor | Score |
|---|---|
| Quality | 69 out of 100 (Neutral). Business health — profits, returns, and consistency. Higher means a more durable company. |
| Growth | 12 out of 100 (Weak). How fast sales and earnings are rising. Higher means the business is expanding faster. |
| Value | 52 out of 100 (Neutral). How cheap the stock looks for what you get. Higher means a more attractive price. |
| Safety | 55 out of 100 (Neutral). Balance-sheet cushion and fewer red flags. Higher means less risk of a nasty surprise. |
| Momentum | 65 out of 100 (Neutral). Recent share-price trend. Higher means buyers have been in control lately. |
Another way to look at it
A calmer look at both sides of the PG story
The prevailing consensus view that Procter & Gamble is an impenetrable defensive compounder ignores that its underlying fundamentals are actively deteriorating beneath an elevated 24.1 P/E multiple.
While the market celebrates a 50.9% gross margin and an 8.0% one-month price rally, quarterly diluted EPS collapsed 35.4% sequentially from $1.95 to $1.26 alongside a top-line decline from $22.39B to $21.20B. Top-line expansion has effectively stalled at just 1.5% YoY, proving that historic pricing actions have exhausted volume elasticity and consumer absorption capacity. Furthermore, the touted insider buying cluster on October 13, 2026 masks a net negative insider capital outflow of $1,237k over the trailing three months. At an EV/EBITDA of 16.0 and a Price/Book of 6.9, PG trades at an unjustifiable premium over peers like PEP at 16.5 P/E while suffering a -14.9% YoY quarterly EPS contraction.
The consensus treats the 50.9% gross margin as an impervious shield while ignoring that sequential EPS dropped from $1.95 in the quarter ended September 30, 2025 to $1.26 in the quarter ended June 30, 2026, alongside a $1.19B revenue decline from $22.39B to $21.20B.
The analysis ignores the risk of steep valuation mean-reversion, given that PG's 6.9 Price/Book and 24.1 P/E multiple command a sharp premium over peer PEP at a 16.5 P/E despite PG's quarterly EPS contracting -14.9% YoY.
Net insider capital flow over the last 3 months was negative $1,237k, directly contradicting the bull narrative of director accumulation after accounting for zero-dollar grant structures.
Extrapolating historical cash flow generation of $6.28 FCF per share into perpetuity while quarterly earnings power has already compressed from $1.95 to $1.26 per share.
Assuming an 80th-percentile peer valuation multiple of 16.0 EV/EBITDA is justified when quarterly top-line revenue growth has decelerated to 1.5% YoY.
Treating the recent 8.0% one-month price advance above the MA50 and MA200 as technical confirmation of operational health rather than speculative multiple expansion during fundamental deterioration.
Quarterly revenue growth YoY slows below 1.5%.
Debt/Equity increases above 0.64.
Cash after investing
See whether PG still makes cash after it spends to grow.
- Quarterly revenue growth YoY slows below 1.5%.
- Debt/Equity increases above 0.64.
Monitor these triggers
Objective checkpoints to watch before the next earnings print
Quarterly YoY EPS growth (baseline: -14.9%)
For learning and research only — not investment advice. AlphaDog doesn’t hold stocks and isn’t your financial advisor.
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