OXY · sample dossier
Occidental Petroleum Corporation
68/100
OutdatedGenerated Nov 7, 2026 · 11:00 AM UTC · 1 day ago
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EquityOccidental Petroleum Corporation · XNYS
Decision context
Recommendation
Balanced between solid Growth (100/100) and lagging Safety (54/100).
A mixed picture — no strong reason to buy or sell right now.
AlphaDog Fair Value
Executive thesis & key metrics
Executive Investment Thesis
Occidental Petroleum Corporation (OXY) is an integrated energy producer trading at an EV/EBITDA of 5.52 and a P/E of 16.02, supported by a TTM gross margin of 73.3% and FCF/share of $4.74 (four-quarter statements). While latest quarter YoY revenue growth reached 53.4% and EPS growth surged 957.7%, an Altman Z-score of 1.70 places the company in financial distress alongside an uninspiring Piotroski F-score of 4/9. The decisive risk is balance sheet vulnerability reflected in that 1.70 Altman Z-score and persistent technical weakness with shares trading below both 50-day and 200-day moving averages following a 1-month return of -6.5%.
Key Metrics to Watch
What changed recently
Why this rating
The latest quarter is more than 100 days old, so this stays a Hold.
Data through
OutdatedSep 30, 2026
A newer quarter has been reported and is not in these statements.
Growth scores 100/100 — top-line expansion leads the profile.
Re-evaluate if
- Net margin falls below 24.3% (was 30.3%)
Trim / reconsider if
- ROA falls below 3.0% (was 4.7%)
- Debt/Equity increases above 0.35.
Think of these dollars as a map of our value estimate for Hold — helpful context, not a reason to override the view.
A Calmer Look · Devil's Advocate
Both sides of the Occidental Petroleum Corporation story, next to the Hold above
The consensus view that Occidental's 5.52 EV/EBITDA multiple and $4.74 free cash flow per share provide a durable valuation floor ignores accelerating operational decay.
May be overlooked
Severe asset productivity mismatch
ROA is restricted to 4.7% despite a 73.3% gross margin and 30.3% net margin, exposing significant capital tie-up that headline earnings obscure.
Fundamental operational deterioration
A Piotroski F-score of 4/9 signals worsening working capital and liquidity trends that neither side integrated into forward projections.
Midstream infrastructure vulnerability
Third-party pipeline constraints forced operational curtailments at Gulf of America facilities in September 2026, demonstrating volume exposure outside management's control.
Expectations look stretched
Extrapolating peak cyclical earnings
The consensus fixates on the 957.7% YoY EPS expansion while dismissing the 12.1% QoQ decline from $3.13 in Q1 to $2.75 in Q2 2026.
Assuming cash flow durability
The belief that $4.74 TTM FCF per share can easily de-risk the balance sheet overlooks that the Altman Z-score remains entrenched in the distress zone at 1.70.
Multiple comparison trap
Benchmarking OXY's 5.52 EV/EBITDA as cheap against Chevron's 7.6 ignores OXY's distress-level Altman Z (1.70) and uninspiring 4.7% ROA.
Net margin drops below 30.3%.
Net margin drops below 30.3%.
Monitor These Triggers
3 Checkpoints · Next PrintMarket context
Snapshot returns at report publication
1 month
-6.5%
3 months
-3.9%
6 months
+6.3%
1 year
+41.8%
At a Glance
A large company is in a pullback at fair pricing.
Top Holders
As of Jun 30, 2026Financial trajectory
Financial Performance
Go deeper
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