OXM · sample dossier
Oxford Industries, Inc.
36/100
OutdatedGenerated Sep 5, 2026 · 10:00 AM UTC · 62 days ago
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EquityOxford Industries, Inc. · XNYS
Decision context
Recommendation
Weighed down by weak Momentum (2/100) and Growth (10/100) scores.
A cautious picture — if you own it, consider taking some off.
AlphaDog Fair Value
Executive thesis & key metrics
Executive Investment Thesis
Oxford Industries, Inc. is an apparel company with a market capitalization of $462.38M and a current price of $30.87, trading at a price-to-book ratio of 0.88. The case for reducing exposure fits contracting business performance evidenced by revenue growth of -0.4% YoY, an EPS decline of -41.2% YoY, a net margin of -0.5%, and a Debt/Equity ratio of 0.93. The single biggest risk is fundamental insolvency and distress pressure indicated by an Altman Z-score of 2.13 in the grey zone, a Piotroski F-score of 3/9, and a 1-year price return drawdown of -27.5%.
Key Metrics to Watch
What changed recently
No material changes found in the last 30 days.
Why this rating
Score 36 · Sell
Data through
OutdatedApr 30, 2026
Composite 36/100 — weak across most factors.
Levels unavailable — AlphaDog quantitative valuation model did not produce an estimate from comps or DCF
Re-evaluate if
- Net margin falls below -0.4% (was -0.5%)
Trim / reconsider if
- ROA falls below 0.6% (was 1.0%)
- Debt/Equity increases above 0.93 [c49].
Think of these dollars as a map of our value estimate for Sell — helpful context, not a reason to override the view.
A Calmer Look · Devil's Advocate
The consensus 'Reduce' verdict fixates on a marginal net margin contraction to -0.5% and a distorted trailing P/E of -83.4, prematurely extrapolating cyclical SG&A deleverage into an existential solvency crisis.
May be overlooked
Reliance on stale disclosures
The direct-to-consumer return reserve ($9 million) and tariff mitigation assessments are sourced from the 2026-03-27 10-K filing, which is over 160 days old and exceeds the 90-day staleness threshold.
GAAP loss versus cash flow divergence
The prevailing bear case penalizes the -0.5% net margin but entirely omits the positive free cash flow of $0.96 per share, which provides cash cushion against the $462.38M market cap.
Omission of audit stability
The consensus asserts fundamental insolvency pressure from a grey-zone Altman Z-score of 2.13, ignoring that filings through 2026-09-03 show no auditor changes, late filing notices, or going-concern modifications.
Expectations look stretched
Materiality distortion in insider buying
The bull case highlights an insider cluster purchase of 36,622 shares, but the aggregate capital committed was only $92,250 across five insiders, representing less than 0.02% of the $462.38M market cap.
Extrapolating gross margin immunity
Assuming the 60.7% gross margin preserves profitability ignores that operating costs drove ROA down to 1.0% and net margin to -0.5% despite revenue slipping only -0.4% YoY.
Valuation floor assumption
Treating an EV/EBITDA of 11.31 and P/B of 0.88 as value metrics overlooks that EPS contracted by -41.2% YoY, leaving equity exposed if inventory requires discounting.
Revenue growth YoY improves above -0.4% [c46].
Revenue growth YoY improves above -0.4% [c46].
Market context
Snapshot returns at report publication
1 month
-17.7%
3 months
-30.0%
6 months
-17.6%
1 year
-27.5%
At a Glance
A smaller company is in a pullback at unprofitable earnings.
Top Holders
Financial trajectory
Financial Performance
Go deeper
For learning and research only — not investment advice. AlphaDog doesn’t hold stocks and isn’t your financial advisor.
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