ONTO · sample dossier
Onto Innovation Inc.
55/100
OutdatedGenerated Nov 7, 2026 · 11:00 AM UTC · 1 day ago
This copy is frozen (Nov 7). Sign in to run the same work — filings, valuation, bull and bear, sources — on any US stock or ETF, in about 90 seconds.
Run a fresh dossierONTO
EquityOnto Innovation Inc. · XNYS
Decision context
Recommendation
Balanced between solid Growth (95/100) and constrained Valuation (32/100).
A mixed picture — no strong reason to buy or sell right now.
AlphaDog Fair Value
Executive thesis & key metrics
Executive Investment Thesis
Onto Innovation Inc. is a semiconductor capital equipment manufacturer capitalized at $8.50B, currently trading at an EV/EBITDA of 26.19 and a P/E of 65.14. Despite strong operational acceleration reflected in latest quarter YoY revenue growth of 35.3% and EPS growth of 75.4%, the neutral stance aligns with a moderate net margin of 11.8% and ROA of 4.8%. The single biggest risk is valuation compression compounded by technical breakdown, evidenced by a 3-month drawdown of -40.5% and a premium P/E multiple of 65.14 against large-cap peer AMAT's 28.7.
Key Metrics to Watch
What changed recently
No material changes found in the last 30 days.
Why this rating
Score 55 · Hold
Data through
OutdatedJun 30, 2026
A newer quarter has been reported and is not in these statements.
Growth scores 95/100 — top-line expansion leads the profile.
Re-evaluate if
- Net margin falls below 9.5% (was 11.8%)
Trim / reconsider if
- ROA falls below 3.1% (was 4.8%)
- Debt/Equity expands above the current level of 0.77.
Think of these dollars as a map of our value estimate for Hold — helpful context, not a reason to override the view.
A Calmer Look · Devil's Advocate
Both sides of the Onto Innovation Inc. story, next to the Hold above
While consensus treats the 40.8% one-month collapse as a potential bottoming pattern warranting a neutral 'Hold', it dangerously understates that Onto still trades at an exorbitant 65.1 P/E and 26.2 EV/EBITDA.
May be overlooked
Consensus ignores that the Piotroski F-score of 4/9 signals internal operating friction and working capital decay despite 55.5% gross margins.
The analysis overlooks that trailing financial filings from May 2026 cited in the debate are older than 90 days and functionally stale as of 2026-11-07, masking third-quarter cyclical slowdowns.
Neither side evaluates the structural drag of a 4.8% ROA when Onto's Debt/Equity ratio sits elevated at 0.77–0.80, limiting self-funded capacity expansion without external financing.
Expectations look stretched
Extrapolating 75.4% YoY EPS growth into an indefinite runway ignores that trailing net margin is already subdued at 11.8%, highlighting severe operating cost leakage.
Treating $5.08 FCF per share as an unbreakable liquidity floor ignores that the stock still commands a 65.1 P/E multiple—more than double Applied Materials' 28.7 P/E.
Assuming the upcoming December 17, 2026 analyst day will catalyze multiple re-expansion relies purely on management narrative rather than verified order backlog.
Revenue growth falls below the latest quarter YoY rate of 35.3%.
Revenue growth falls below the latest quarter YoY rate of 35.3%.
Monitor These Triggers
3 Checkpoints · Next PrintMarket context
Snapshot returns at report publication
1 month
-40.8%
3 months
-40.5%
6 months
-39.1%
1 year
+27.6%
At a Glance
A mid-sized company is in a pullback at premium pricing.
Top Holders
As of Jun 30, 2026Financial trajectory
Financial Performance
Go deeper
For learning and research only — not investment advice. AlphaDog doesn’t hold stocks and isn’t your financial advisor.
Run the next one yourself.
You just read a full ONTO dossier — scored verdict, valuation, and both sides, with sources. Sign in to run that on a name you hold, on current filings. A free account includes 10 credits a week, 1 per fresh run.