ODC · sample dossier
Oil-Dri Corporation of America
55/100
OutdatedGenerated Oct 3, 2026 · 10:00 AM UTC · 1 hour ago
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EquityOil-Dri Corporation of AmericaXNYS
Decision context
AVOID
Analysis horizon · 72% convictionDownsides look heavier than upsides — we wouldn’t start a new position.
The stock trades 44.9% above our estimated value range midpoint.
Current price
$89.66
Estimated value range
$40.70 – $99.61
Gap (vs midpoint)
-44.9%
Trading above the estimated range reinforces the cautious recommendation.
Market context
Price
Price when available
Pick how far back the chart looks
1 month
-1.1%
3 months
-10.1%
6 months
+32.7%
1 year
+48.2%
Executive summary & thesis
Oil-Dri Corporation of America produces sorbent mineral products, trading at $89.66 with a P/E ratio of 23.91 and EV/EBITDA of 14.59.
- EPS growth reached 12.4% YoY alongside a gross margin of 27.8%, demonstrating operational pricing discipline.
- Leverage remains conservative with a Debt/Equity ratio of 0.19 and positive free cash flow of $2.69 per share.
- Shares have generated a 48.2% 1-year return and continue trading above their 200-day moving average.
- Altman Z-score of 1.1 sits in the distress zone, paired with an alarming Piotroski F-score of 2/9.
- The company recorded an accounting restatement regarding its 2006 Long Term Incentive Plan in its October 9, 2025 Form 10-K.
- Shares have declined 10.1% over the past 3 months and currently trade below their 50-day moving average.
Things to keep in mind
- 1Base target implies 31.0% downsideView source
- 2P/E 23.9xView source
- 3restatementView source
What to watch next
Factor profile
Momentum-led profile
| Factor | Score |
|---|---|
| Quality | 49 out of 100 (Neutral). Business health — profits, returns, and consistency. Higher means a more durable company. |
| Growth | 40 out of 100 (Neutral). How fast sales and earnings are rising. Higher means the business is expanding faster. |
| Value | 63 out of 100 (Neutral). How cheap the stock looks for what you get. Higher means a more attractive price. |
| Safety | 50 out of 100 (Neutral). Balance-sheet cushion and fewer red flags. Higher means less risk of a nasty surprise. |
| Momentum | 79 out of 100 (Strong). Recent share-price trend. Higher means buyers have been in control lately. |
Another way to look at it
What the optimistic case might still be missing about ODC
The consensus verdict of 'Avoid' and the unanimous bear-case ruling rest on a superficial misinterpretation of balance-sheet solvency.
Consensus blindly extrapolates an Altman Z-score of 1.10 as an existential bankruptcy threat, ignoring that the company operates with a negligible Debt/Equity ratio of 0.19, an ROA of 10.5%, and positive free cash flow of $2.69 per share. Similarly, both the bear advocate and the judges weaponize an accounting restatement without acknowledging it was strictly confined to 2006 LTIP award share counts rather than operating cash or revenue manipulation. However, the bull camp exhibits dangerous complacency by celebrating 25.0% quarterly EPS expansion while ignoring a collapsed Piotroski F-score of 2/9 and an expensive P/E of 23.9 on filings now more than 90 days stale. By obsessing over phantom default risk rather than fundamental operational deceleration, consensus has framed the wrong debate entirely.
The bear consensus treats the Altman Z-score of 1.10 as evidence of impending financial distress while completely ignoring that Debt/Equity is just 0.19 and ROA is solid at 10.5%.
Consensus treats the October 9, 2025 restatement as a severe operational red flag despite filings confirming it was restricted to share counts under the 2006 Long Term Incentive Plan with zero auditor departures.
Neither side investigates the operational breakdown driving the Piotroski F-score down to 2/9 despite reported gross margin of 27.8% and net margin of 11.4%.
Bull advocates extrapolate a single quarter's 25.0% diluted EPS growth to justify a 23.9 P/E multiple while top-line revenue growth expanded by only 8.1% YoY.
The stock's 48.2% 1-year price return has inflated the Price-to-Book multiple to 4.55 and EV/EBITDA to 14.59, leaving little cushion after a 10.1% decline over the trailing 3 months.
Bulls tout positive free cash flow of $2.69 per share, yet on an $89.66 stock price this generates an FCF yield of only 3.0%, failing to support an EV/EBITDA multiple of 14.59.
Revenue Growth YoY increases above 8.1%.
Altman Z-score recovers above 1.1.
Cash after investing
Cash-flow details are thin for ODC — check the Financials tab when you can.
- Revenue Growth YoY increases above 8.1%.
- Altman Z-score recovers above 1.1.
- Piotroski F-score increases above 2/9.
For learning and research only — not investment advice. AlphaDog doesn’t hold stocks and isn’t your financial advisor.
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