NUE · sample dossier
Nucor Corporation
53/100
FreshGenerated Oct 24, 2026 · 10:00 AM UTC · 1 hour ago
This copy is frozen (Oct 24). Sign in to run the same work — filings, valuation, bull and bear, sources — on any US stock or ETF, in about 90 seconds.
Run a fresh dossierNUE
EquityNucor Corporation · XNYS
Decision context
Recommendation
A mixed picture — no strong reason to buy or sell right now.
AlphaDog Fair Value
Market context
Snapshot returns at report publication
1 month
+4.1%
3 months
+4.1%
6 months
+20.4%
1 year
+88.9%
At a Glance
A large company is riding a strong uptrend at fair pricing.
Top Holders
As of Jun 30, 2026Financial trajectory
Financial Performance
Executive thesis & key metrics
Executive Thesis
Nucor Corporation (NUE) is a $58.56B market-cap steel and structures producer trading at $258.11 with a TTM P/E of 20.58 and TTM EV/EBITDA of 11.29 [c1, c2].
Key Metrics to Watch
What changed recently
No material changes found in the last 30 days.
Why this rating
Score 53 · Hold
Data through
FreshJul 4, 2026
Momentum 89/100 — 1Y return 89%.
Re-evaluate if
- Severe accounting disclosures (auditor / restatement / going concern) in SEC filings
- Net margin falls below 6.4% (was 8.0%)
- TTM EV/EBITDA compresses from 11.29x toward peer multiples of 6.8x to 8.7x while TTM FCF/share stays at or above $6.93 [c2, c5].
Trim / reconsider if
- ROA falls below 4.8% (was 7.3%)
- TTM Debt/Equity increases above 0.31.
Think of these dollars as a map of our value estimate for Hold — helpful context, not a reason to override the view.
A Calmer Look · Devil's Advocate
While the consensus Hold verdict balances an 88.9% 1-year price rally against a 20.6x P/E and 11.3x EV/EBITDA valuation, both sides of the debate rely on fundamentally flawed and stale premises.
May be overlooked
The peer valuation comparison is structurally flawed
the consensus benchmarks steel producer Nucor (11.29x EV/EBITDA) against specialty and commodity chemical companies CBT (6.8x), DOW (8.7x), and OLN (8.0x) rather than domestic steel peers.
Quarterly financial data from June 30, 2026 and July 4, 2026—including the Q2 $10.40B revenue and $5.04 EPS figures—is over 90 days old and stale as of 2026-10-24, leaving a complete blind spot regarding Q3 steel pricing and volume trends.
The -99.9% YoY revenue growth metric cited in the bear case and executive summary is treated as a valid counterweight despite directly conflicting with Q2 revenue of $10.40B (+9.5% QoQ) and a safe 4.98 Altman Z-score.
Expectations look stretched
The bull case treats backward-looking price action—an 88.9% 1-year return and 4.1% 1-month return above the MA50 and MA200—as a primary investment thesis despite TTM ROA sitting at a modest 7.3%.
The synthesis report assumes the 2026-10-22 Towers & Structures expansion will lift TTM gross margin above 15.6% over the next 6 to 12 months without any disclosed capex figures, capacity metrics, or margin profiles to support the claim.
Dismissing $11.17M in net insider selling (41,707 shares across 6 sales and 0 buys, including the CEO's $6.98M sale on 2026-08-14) as 'routine-neutral' ignores executives actively monetizing shares at 20.6x P/E and 2.6x P/B.
Quarterly YoY revenue growth recovers above the -99.9% latest-quarter print while TTM gross margin holds at or above 15.6% [c2, c3].
Quarterly YoY revenue growth recovers above the -99.9% latest-quarter print while TTM gross margin holds at or above 15.6% [c2, c3].
Monitor These Triggers
3 Checkpoints · Next PrintYoY Revenue Growth (baseline: -99.9% in latest quarter) and TTM Gross Margin (baseline: 15.6%) in the Q3 earnings report previewed on 2026-10-23 [c2, c3, c16].
Go deeper
For learning and research only — not investment advice. AlphaDog doesn’t hold stocks and isn’t your financial advisor.
Run the next one yourself.
You just read a full NUE dossier — scored verdict, valuation, and both sides, with sources. Sign in to run that on a name you hold, on current filings. A free account includes 10 credits a week, 1 per fresh run.