NRIX · sample dossier
Nurix Therapeutics, Inc. Common stock
32/100
OutdatedGenerated Oct 3, 2026 · 10:00 AM UTC · 1 hour ago
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EquityNurix Therapeutics, Inc. Common stockXNAS
Decision context
REDUCE
Analysis horizon · 80% convictionA cautious picture — if you own it, consider taking some off.
The stock trades 32.2% below our estimated value range midpoint.
Current price
$22.99
Estimated value range
$25.00 – $45.00
Gap (vs midpoint)
+32.2%
The discount is real, and the rating still follows the factor score on this report.
Market context
Price
Price when available
Pick how far back the chart looks
1 month
-11.0%
3 months
-4.4%
6 months
+48.2%
1 year
+144.6%
Executive summary & thesis
Nurix Therapeutics, Inc. (NRIX) is a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company with a market capitalization of $2.39B, operating at a negative free cash flow of -$1.59 per share and a Price/Book of 5.92.
- Low balance-sheet leverage with Debt/Equity at 0.14 provides financial flexibility relative to peers.
- Strong trailing 1-year return of 144.6% with the stock trading above its 200-day moving average.
- Solid Altman Z-score of 10.34 indicates resilient balance-sheet capitalization despite development-stage operating losses.
- Shareholder dilution is severe, with shares outstanding increasing by +32.4% YoY.
- Revenue contracted by -79.5% YoY, highlighting extreme reliance on uneven collaboration agreements.
- Sustained operational cash burn is reflected in negative free cash flow of -$1.59 per share and ROA of -40.1%.
Things to keep in mind
- 1P/E -6.7xView source
- 2Net margin 0.0%View source
- 3Dilution: shares outstanding +32.4% YoYView source
What to watch next
Factor profile
Momentum-led profile
| Factor | Score |
|---|---|
| Quality | 6 out of 100 (Weak). Business health — profits, returns, and consistency. Higher means a more durable company. |
| Growth | 0 out of 100 (Weak). How fast sales and earnings are rising. Higher means the business is expanding faster. |
| Value | 35 out of 100 (Weak). How cheap the stock looks for what you get. Higher means a more attractive price. |
| Safety | 56 out of 100 (Neutral). Balance-sheet cushion and fewer red flags. Higher means less risk of a nasty surprise. |
| Momentum | 83 out of 100 (Elite). Recent share-price trend. Higher means buyers have been in control lately. |
Another way to look at it
What the optimistic case might still be missing about NRIX
The prevailing consensus and winning bear debate inappropriately treat standard clinical-stage financing as structural decay, penalizing Nurix with a 32/100 composite score based on 32.4% share dilution.
This negative verdict overlooks that equity issuance reinforced balance-sheet durability, producing an Altman Z-score of 10.34 and a minimal Debt/Equity ratio of 0.14. Fixating on a -79.5% revenue contraction and 0.0% gross margin applies commercial-stage criteria to lumpy biotech collaboration receipts. The market has already absorbed this dilution, driving a 144.6% 1-year return and maintaining the stock above its 200-day moving average. Consequently, the bear thesis discounts the Wall Street consensus price target of $34.21 against the prevailing $22.99 market price.
The bear consensus treats a 32.4% expansion in shares outstanding purely as capital destruction, ignoring that the proceeds funded operations while preserving a safe Altman Z-score of 10.34 and Debt/Equity of 0.14.
The consensus relies on quarterly financial statements from 2026-07-09 (86 days old as of 2026-10-03, nearing stale data thresholds) to penalize -40.1% ROA while ignoring binary clinical trial progress.
The evaluation penalizes the -79.5% YoY revenue decline without adjusting for the non-linear, milestone-driven nature of pre-commercial biotechnology licensing revenues.
The bull thesis relies on extrapolating a 144.6% 1-year return even though 1-month returns have deteriorated by -11.0% and the stock has fallen below its 50-day moving average.
The consensus analyst target of $34.21 implies significant upside despite recent net insider selling totaling -$938,193 (-23,508 shares) over the trailing 3 months.
A Price/Book multiple of 5.92 remains elevated for an enterprise with zero gross margin and trailing free cash flow of -$1.59 per share.
Revenue growth YoY recovers above -79.5% on new collaboration milestone receipts.
Debt/Equity increases beyond the current 0.14 ratio.
Cash after investing
See whether NRIX still makes cash after it spends to grow.
- Revenue growth YoY recovers above -79.5% on new collaboration milestone receipts.
- Debt/Equity increases beyond the current 0.14 ratio.
- Net margin expands above 0.0% for two consecutive quarters
Monitor these triggers
2 checkpoints before the next earnings print
Revenue Growth YoY (baseline: -79.5%)
Revenue Growth YoY fails to recover from -79.5% across subsequent fiscal quarters.
ROA deteriorates below -40.1% alongside accelerated cash burn.
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