NRG · sample dossier
NRG Energy, Inc.
30/100
OutdatedGenerated Nov 7, 2026 · 11:00 AM UTC · 1 day ago
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EquityNRG Energy, Inc. · XNYS
Decision context
Recommendation
Weighed down by weak Momentum (12/100) and Safety (13/100) scores.
A cautious picture — if you own it, consider taking some off.
AlphaDog Fair Value
Executive thesis & key metrics
Executive Investment Thesis
NRG Energy, Inc. operates retail electricity and merchant generation assets with an $18.56B market capitalization, trading at an EV/EBITDA of 13.07 and a P/E of 23.11. Fundamental efficiency remains constrained, as evidenced by a thin net margin of 2.6% and an ROA of 4.1% against 11.0% latest quarter YoY revenue growth. The primary vulnerability is balance-sheet strain, marked by an elevated Debt/Equity ratio of 4.83, an Altman Z-score of 1.97, and a 1-year price return of -49.0%.
Key Metrics to Watch
What changed recently
No material changes found in the last 30 days.
Why this rating
Score 30 · Sell
Data through
OutdatedJun 30, 2026
A newer quarter has been reported and is not in these statements.
Composite 30/100 — weak across most factors.
Re-evaluate if
- Severe accounting disclosures (auditor / restatement / going concern) in SEC filings
- Net margin falls below 2.1% (was 2.6%)
Trim / reconsider if
- ROA falls below 2.6% (was 4.1%)
- Debt/Equity escalates beyond 4.83.
Think of these dollars as a map of our value estimate for Sell — helpful context, not a reason to override the view.
A Calmer Look · Devil's Advocate
A second set of eyes on NRG Energy, Inc.
The consensus Sell rating leans excessively on backward-looking equity drawdown (-49.0% 1-year return) and elevated balance sheet leverage (Debt/Equity of 4.83) while ignoring operational cash generation.
May be overlooked
Consensus models Debt/Equity of 4.83 as an insurmountable solvency risk without evaluating whether organic TTM free cash flow of $1.49 per share is sufficient to service maturities.
The analysis ignores why NRG commands a 23.1 P/E multiple alongside an EV/EBITDA of 13.1, representing a substantial premium over merchant peer Vistra (16.8 P/E) despite NRG's weak 2.6% net margin.
Bears focus entirely on trailing share price weakness (-17.0% 1-month and -36.1% 6-month returns), omitting the impact of 11.0% YoY quarterly revenue growth on underlying asset productivity.
Expectations look stretched
Bulls project structural earnings transformation from the 415 MW T.H. Wharton facility and 1.2 GW CCGT pipeline without showing how the capital expenditure will be funded given 6.6% YoY share dilution and a 4.83 Debt/Equity ratio.
Bulls extrapolate the Q2 EPS surge of +344.2% QoQ to $2.31 into sustainable earnings power, ignoring that underlying ROA remains depressed at 4.1%.
Consensus relies on retail and wholesale gross margin stability of 18.8% while ignoring that operational overhead drives severe compression to a 2.6% net margin.
Revenue growth YoY falls below the latest reported 11.0%.
Revenue growth YoY falls below the latest reported 11.0%.
Monitor These Triggers
3 Checkpoints · Next PrintMarket context
Snapshot returns at report publication
1 month
-17.0%
3 months
-25.8%
6 months
-36.1%
1 year
-49.0%
At a Glance
A large company is in a pullback at fair pricing.
Top Holders
As of Jun 30, 2026Financial trajectory
Financial Performance
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