NOC · sample dossier
Northrop Grumman Corp.
44/100
Stale StatementsGenerated Oct 17, 2026 · 10:00 AM UTC · 2 hours ago
This copy is frozen (Oct 17). Sign in to run the same work — filings, valuation, bull and bear, sources — on any US stock or ETF, in about 90 seconds.
Run a fresh dossierNOC
EquityNorthrop Grumman Corp.XNYS
Decision context
HOLD
66% convictionScore 44 · Hold
A mixed picture — no strong reason to buy or sell right now.
The stock trades 27.4% below our estimate.
Current price
$519.86
Estimated value range
$530.78 – $899.44
Gap vs AlphaDog estimate
+27.4%
The stock trades at a discount, but execution uncertainties suggest waiting for a clearer catalyst.
Market context
Price
Price when available
Pick how far back the chart looks
1 month
-0.8%
3 months
-0.8%
6 months
-21.9%
1 year
-14.6%
Financial trajectory
Executive summary & thesis
Northrop Grumman Corp. is an aerospace and defense contractor with a market capitalization of $73.85B, trading at a trailing P/E of 16.52 and delivering $25.60 in free cash flow per share.
- Trailing free cash flow stands at $25.60 per share, providing substantial liquidity for operations and shareholder returns.
- Valuation of 12.21 EV/EBITDA represents a meaningful discount to peer multiples of 18.5 for RTX and 14.8 for General Dynamics.
- Top-line defense demand supported 5.1% year-over-year revenue growth in the quarter ended June 30, 2026.
- Diluted EPS contracted by -5.8% year-over-year in the quarter ended June 30, 2026, signaling operating margin pressure.
- Market momentum is negative with a -21.9% return over 6 months and shares trading below both 50-day and 200-day moving averages.
- An Altman Z-score of 2.86 places the firm in the grey zone, indicating lower solvency buffers against contract cost increases.
Things to keep in mind
- 1P/E 16.5xView source
- 2Diluted EPS contracted by -5.8% year-over-year in the quarter ended June 30, 2026, signaling operating margin pressure.View source
- 3Market momentum is negative with a -21.9% return over 6 months and shares trading below both 50-day and 200-day moving averages.View source
What to watch next
What changed recently
No material changes found in the last 30 days.
Why this rating
Score 44 · Hold
Data through
Stale StatementsJun 30, 2026
A newer quarter has been reported and is not in these statements. The rating is capped at Hold until the statements catch up.
Factor profile
Balanced operator
| Factor | Score |
|---|---|
| Quality | 53 out of 100 (Neutral). Business health — profits, returns, and consistency. Higher means a more durable company. |
| Growth | 19 out of 100 (Weak). How fast sales and earnings are rising. Higher means the business is expanding faster. |
| Value | 73 out of 100 (Strong). How cheap the stock looks for what you get. Higher means a more attractive price. |
| Safety | 57 out of 100 (Neutral). Balance-sheet cushion and fewer red flags. Higher means less risk of a nasty surprise. |
| Momentum | 6 out of 100 (Weak). Recent share-price trend. Higher means buyers have been in control lately. |
Another way to look at it
A calmer look at both sides of the Northrop Grumman Corp. story
Consensus views Northrop Grumman as an undervalued defensive stalwart based on a 16.5 P/E and 12.2 EV/EBITDA discount relative to aerospace peers.
However, this multiple discount is fully earned given that operating profitability is decaying, marked by a -5.8% year-over-year EPS contraction in the quarter ended June 30, 2026. Balance sheet safety is overstated by the consensus, which ignores that an Altman Z-score of 2.86 places the firm squarely in the solvency grey zone alongside a 1.0 Debt-to-Equity ratio. Furthermore, the consensus relies on conflicting cash flow figures—alternating between $25.60 and $17.44 in free cash flow per share—masking potential liquidity strain. With the equity languishing below both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages following a -21.9% six-month collapse, treating NOC as a stable 'Hold' mistakes structural margin decay for a cyclical value opportunity.
An Altman Z-score of 2.86 positions the company in the grey zone alongside a 1.0 Debt/Equity ratio, leaving fragile solvency buffers against defense program cost overruns.
A significant reporting gap exists where EPS for the quarter ended December 31, 2025 is marked N/A despite $11.71B in revenue, concealing potential prior program charges.
A gross margin of 20.1% paired with -5.8% year-over-year EPS contraction signals severe operating cost pressures that 5.1% top-line revenue growth cannot neutralize.
Consensus presents conflicting liquidity claims, citing trailing free cash flow per share as $25.60 in the synthesis report versus $17.44 in the adversarial debate.
Framing the 16.5 P/E and 12.2 EV/EBITDA multiples as an attractive peer discount against RTX (34.1) overlooks Northrop Grumman's bottom-tier growth factor score of 19.3 out of 100.
Extrapolating sequential Q2 revenue growth to $10.88B ignores the reality of a -14.6% 1-year stock decline and failure to maintain both 50-day and 200-day moving averages.
Revenue growth YoY falls below 5.1%.
Net margin drops below 10.5%.
Cash after investing
See whether Northrop Grumman Corp. still makes cash after it spends to grow.
- Revenue growth YoY falls below 5.1%.
- Net margin drops below 10.5%.
For learning and research only — not investment advice. AlphaDog doesn’t hold stocks and isn’t your financial advisor.
Run the next one yourself.
You just read a full NOC dossier — scored verdict, valuation, and both sides, with sources. Sign in to run that on a name you hold, on current filings. A free account includes 10 credits a week, 1 per fresh run.