NFLX · sample dossier
NetFlix Inc
57/100
OutdatedGenerated Oct 27, 2026 · 11:25 PM UTC · 9 days ago
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EquityNetFlix Inc · XNAS
Decision context
Recommendation
Balanced between solid Quality (77/100) and constrained Momentum (0/100).
A mixed picture — no strong reason to buy or sell right now.
AlphaDog Fair Value
Executive thesis & key metrics
Executive Investment Thesis
NetFlix Inc (NFLX) is a global streaming entertainment provider with a $260.33B market cap and current price of $62.52, generating a 50.7% TTM gross margin and 29.7% TTM net margin. A Hold stance is warranted because 47.5% YoY EPS growth, 11.8% YoY revenue growth, and a 0.60 TTM Debt/Equity ratio are counterbalanced by an 18.07 TTM P/E, 16.67 TTM EV/EBITDA, and 8.77 Price/Book multiple. The single biggest risk is severe negative price momentum, marked by a -42.6% 1-year return and -30.1% 6-month return with shares trading below both the MA50 and MA200.
Key Metrics to Watch
What changed recently
Why this rating
Score 57 · Hold
Data through
OutdatedSep 30, 2026
Quality 77/100 — net margin 29.7%.
Re-evaluate if
- Net margin falls below 23.8% (was 29.7%)
Trim / reconsider if
- ROA falls below 11.1% (was 17.1%)
- TTM Debt/Equity rises above 0.60 while TTM FCF/Share drops below $2.71.
Think of these dollars as a map of our value estimate for Hold — helpful context, not a reason to override the view.
A Calmer Look · Devil's Advocate
The prevailing Hold consensus and 57/100 composite score rely on a flawed equilibrium between backward-looking TTM profitability (29.7% net margin, 17.1% ROA) and severe negative price action (-42.6% 1Y return).
May be overlooked
Unresolved accounting divergence in Q3 2026 earnings
the synthesis report cites Q3 2026 diluted EPS of $0.87 (vs. $0.59 in Q3 2025), completely ignoring the bear advocate's finding that Q3 GAAP EPS compressed 18.1% QoQ to $0.59 from a stale Q2 GAAP EPS of $0.72.
Content amortization and cash conversion vulnerability
while TTM FCF/share is $2.71 alongside a 29.7% net margin, neither side examines whether Co-CEO Greg Peters' October 26, 2026 admission of weak U.S. engagement will require accelerated content spending that compresses free cash flow.
Structural currency mismatch
based on stale FY2025 10-K data (older than 90 days as of 2026-10-27), 56% of revenue is non-USD while only 31% of operating expenses are non-USD, leaving the 50.7% gross margin highly exposed to USD appreciation.
Expectations look stretched
Peak margin and earnings extrapolation
bulls extrapolate 47.5% YoY EPS growth and a 29.7% TTM net margin into perpetuity, ignoring that Q3 non-GAAP EPS of $0.87 has already fallen 29.3% from the stale Q1 2026 peak of $1.23.
Complacency on domestic saturation
the consensus treats weak U.S. engagement as a future catalyst rather than a thesis-breaking structural plateau that explains why 19 of 22 post-Q3 earnings articles on October 26, 2026 were bearish or neutral.
Insider conviction vacuum
despite a -42.6% 1-year and -10.2% 1-month price drop to $62.52, zero insiders have made open-market purchases over the past 3 months, logging instead 3 non-10b5-1 sales totaling -2,160 shares (-$164,973).
YoY revenue growth shifts away from the 11.8% baseline while TTM net margin moves from 29.7%.
YoY revenue growth shifts away from the 11.8% baseline while TTM net margin moves from 29.7%.
Monitor These Triggers
3 Checkpoints · Next PrintYoY revenue growth (baseline 11.8% in Q3 2026 on $12,874,176 thousand of quarterly revenue) alongside TTM net margin (baseline 29.7%).
Market context
Snapshot returns at report publication
1 month
-10.2%
3 months
-11.7%
6 months
-30.1%
1 year
-42.6%
At a Glance
A very large company is in a pullback at fair pricing.
Top Holders
As of Jun 30, 2026Financial trajectory
Financial Performance
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