NEOG · sample dossier
Neogen Corp
53/100
OutdatedGenerated Oct 3, 2026 · 10:00 AM UTC · 1 hour ago
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EquityNeogen CorpXNAS
Decision context
HOLD
Analysis horizon · 80% convictionA mixed picture — no strong reason to buy or sell right now.
The stock trades 13.2% below our estimated value range midpoint.
Current price
$12.15
Estimated value range
$14.00 – $14.00
Gap (vs midpoint)
+13.2%
The stock trades at a discount, but execution uncertainties suggest waiting for a clearer catalyst.
Market context
Price
Price when available
Pick how far back the chart looks
1 month
+2.9%
3 months
+27.8%
6 months
+29.1%
1 year
+109.5%
Executive summary & thesis
Neogen Corp (NEOG) is a food and animal safety solutions provider capitalized at $2.65B, trading at $12.15 with a gross margin of 46.9% and free cash flow per share of $0.15.
- Price momentum is exceptional with a 1-year return of 109.5%, maintaining trading levels above both 50-day and 200-day moving averages.
- Capital structure remains conservative with a Debt/Equity ratio of 0.39 alongside positive free cash flow per share of $0.15.
- Insiders demonstrated alignment through cluster buying on 2026-08-14, with C-suite purchases exceeding $2.69M across CEO, CFO, and CLO.
- Valuation risk is elevated with an EV/EBITDA of 34.60 and negative P/E of -303.75 amid negative -0.9% net margin.
- Top-line revenue contracted by -0.1% YoY, while EPS growth YoY is Not publicly available to confirm underlying earnings momentum.
- Altman Z-score sits at 2.54 in the grey zone, while asset utilization generates a negative ROA of -0.4%.
Things to keep in mind
- 1P/E -303.8xView source
- 2Net margin -0.9%View source
- 3Valuation risk is elevated with an EV/EBITDA of 34.60 and negative P/E of -303.75 amid negative -0.9% net margin.View source
What to watch next
Factor profile
Momentum-led profile
| Factor | Score |
|---|---|
| Quality | 46 out of 100 (Neutral). Business health — profits, returns, and consistency. Higher means a more durable company. |
| Growth | 20 out of 100 (Weak). How fast sales and earnings are rising. Higher means the business is expanding faster. |
| Value | 36 out of 100 (Weak). How cheap the stock looks for what you get. Higher means a more attractive price. |
| Safety | 80 out of 100 (Elite). Balance-sheet cushion and fewer red flags. Higher means less risk of a nasty surprise. |
| Momentum | 94 out of 100 (Elite). Recent share-price trend. Higher means buyers have been in control lately. |
Another way to look at it
A calmer look at both sides of the Neogen Corp story
The consensus view that Neogen warrants a neutral 'Hold' is an uncritical compromise that ignores severe valuation detachment.
Neogen trades at an extreme EV/EBITDA multiple of 34.6x and a negative P/E of -303.8 while revenue is actively contracting at -0.1% YoY. The stock's 109.5% one-year price surge reflects speculative multiple expansion rather than operational recovery, leaving zero margin of safety. Consensus treats executive buying as a fundamental stabilizer, yet overlooks that CEO Mikheal sold 20,397 shares just five days after the widely touted August 14 cluster purchase. With an Altman Z-score of 2.54 lingering in the grey zone and ROA at -0.4%, Neogen's $2.65B market capitalization rests entirely on momentum rather than earnings power.
Consensus ignores that CEO Mikheal Nassif sold 20,397 shares for $242,112 on 2026-08-19, merely five days after the August 14 cluster purchase touted by the bull camp as an alignment signal.
The debate frames Debt/Equity of 0.39 as balance sheet strength while ignoring that an Altman Z-score of 2.54 places the firm in the grey zone amid negative asset returns (ROA -0.4%).
Consensus treats free cash flow of $0.15 per share as evidence of operational flexibility, ignoring that at a $12.15 share price, this translates to an anemic 1.23% FCF yield that cannot support an EV/EBITDA multiple of 34.6x.
The 109.5% one-year price return represents pure multiple inflation detached from top-line reality, as revenue YoY growth contracted by -0.1%.
Bulls extrapolate gross margin strength of 46.9% as a durable moat, even though operational leakage results in a negative net margin of -0.9%.
Technical strength of trading above 50-day and 200-day moving averages is being treated as validation of turnaround progress despite persistent net losses across three consecutive quarters.
Revenue growth YoY drops below -0.1%.
Gross margin declines below 46.9%.
Cash after investing
See whether Neogen Corp still makes cash after it spends to grow.
- Revenue growth YoY drops below -0.1%.
- Gross margin declines below 46.9%.
- Net margin expands above -0.9% for two consecutive quarters
Monitor these triggers
Objective checkpoints to watch before the next earnings print
Revenue Growth YoY (current baseline: -0.1%)
For learning and research only — not investment advice. AlphaDog doesn’t hold stocks and isn’t your financial advisor.
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