MU · sample dossier
Micron Technology, Inc.
83/100
OutdatedGenerated Sep 29, 2026 · 4:36 AM UTC · 38 days ago
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EquityMicron Technology, Inc. · XNAS
Decision context
Recommendation
Driven by superior Growth (100/100) and Momentum (100/100) scores.
A mixed picture — no strong reason to buy or sell right now.
AlphaDog Fair Value
Executive thesis & key metrics
Executive Investment Thesis
Micron Technology, Inc. is a semiconductor memory manufacturer with a market capitalization of $1.19T, trading at a P/E ratio of 24.45 and an EV/EBITDA of 17.16. Operating strength is underscored by YoY revenue growth of 345.7% and YoY EPS growth of 1368.5%, coupled with a conservative Debt/Equity ratio of 0.06. The primary risk stems from severe memory-cycle volatility following a 572.1% 1-year surge, reflected in a -8.0% 3-month return and $29.20M in net insider selling over the past 3 months.
Key Metrics to Watch
What changed recently
No material changes found in the last 30 days.
Why this rating
Score 83 · Hold
Data through
OutdatedMay 31, 2026
Valuation methods disagree by more than 50%, so this stays a Hold.
Growth 100/100 and momentum 100/100 — 1Y return 572%.
Re-evaluate if
- Net margin falls below 44.7% (was 55.9%)
- Debt/Equity increases above 0.06.
Trim / reconsider if
- ROA falls below 22.7% (was 34.9%)
Think of these dollars as a map of our value estimate for Hold — helpful context, not a reason to override the view.
A Calmer Look · Devil's Advocate
Consensus treats Micron's 72.6% gross margin and 55.9% net margin as a permanent structural shift rather than the speculative peak of a classic memory hardware cycle.
May be overlooked
Consensus financial analysis depends entirely on 2026-05-31 earnings reports that are 121 days stale, obscuring any recent degradation in memory spot pricing or OEM contract terms.
A Price/Book multiple of 11.81 leaves no asset cushion against standard cyclical write-downs when memory supply catches up to demand.
Unanimous bull conviction ignores that insiders executed 22 sales and zero open-market purchases, divesting -$29.20M even as composite models assigned an 83/100 score.
Expectations look stretched
Extrapolating 345.7% YoY revenue growth and 1368.5% YoY EPS growth assumes peak operating leverage will persist indefinitely.
Assuming gross margins of 72.6% and net margins of 55.9% are sustainable ignores historical mean reversion in commoditized memory hardware.
Evaluating Micron at a 24.45 P/E against AMD's 161.2 P/E ignores that semiconductor memory cyclicals typically peak at their lowest trailing P/E multiples.
YoY revenue growth drops below 345.7%.
YoY revenue growth drops below 345.7%.
Monitor These Triggers
0 Checkpoints · Next PrintGross margin (current baseline: 72.6%) to verify whether pricing power in high-performance memory nodes is being sustained.
Market context
Snapshot returns at report publication
1 month
+12.7%
3 months
-8.0%
6 months
+195.1%
1 year
+572.1%
At a Glance
A very large company is riding a strong uptrend at fair pricing.
Top Holders
Financial trajectory
Financial Performance
Go deeper
For learning and research only — not investment advice. AlphaDog doesn’t hold stocks and isn’t your financial advisor.
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