MSFT · sample dossier
Microsoft Corp
62/100
FreshGenerated Oct 24, 2026 · 10:00 AM UTC · 1 hour ago
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EquityMicrosoft Corp · XNAS
Decision context
Recommendation
More going for it than against it — worth a closer look.
AlphaDog Fair Value
Market context
Snapshot returns at report publication
1 month
+5.3%
3 months
+34.8%
6 months
+23.5%
1 year
+0.8%
At a Glance
A very large company is on a steady trend at growth-style pricing.
Top Holders
As of Jun 30, 2026Financial trajectory
Financial Performance
Executive thesis & key metrics
Executive Thesis
Microsoft Corp (MSFT) is a mega-cap technology company with a $3.89T market cap and $524.51 share price, generating a 67.9% TTM gross margin and 40.3% TTM net margin.
Key Metrics to Watch
What changed recently
No material changes found in the last 30 days.
Why this rating
price $524.51 is above buy-below $419.30
Data through
FreshJun 30, 2026
Composite 62/100 — no single factor above 75 dominates.
Re-evaluate if
- Net margin falls below 32.2% (was 40.3%)
Trim / reconsider if
- ROA falls below 9.2% (was 14.1%)
- TTM Debt/Equity rises above 0.29 while TTM FCF/share declines below $9.00.
These dollars come from our value estimate and help sketch entry and exit zones. They’re a guide, not a trade order.
A Calmer Look · Devil's Advocate
The consensus 'Buy' verdict relies on backward-looking profitability metrics—specifically a 67.9% gross margin and 40.3% net margin—derived from June 30, 2026 financial data that is explicitly stale by over 90 days.
May be overlooked
The $9.00 TTM FCF/share at a $524.51 share price equates to a thin 1.71% free cash flow yield, leaving zero margin of safety if capital expenditure requirements pressure cash conversion while trading at 20.32x EV/EBITDA.
The synthesis report labels $24.75M in insider selling across 9 sales and 0 buys as 'routine_neutral', ignoring that 0 of these transactions were executed under pre-arranged 10b5-1 plans and that CFO Amy Hood sold $3.99M on 2026-10-13 ahead of quarterly earnings.
A mediocre Piotroski F-score of 6/9 indicates that up to three underlying fundamental trend criteria are failing to improve, contradicting the narrative of flawless operating momentum.
Expectations look stretched
Bulls extrapolate 31.8% YoY EPS growth and 12.6% QoQ EPS growth ($4.81 on $90.01B revenue) from the stale June 30, 2026 period, ignoring that the entire 34.8% 3-month price rally occurred without fresh fundamental confirmation.
The consensus assumes upcoming earnings will sustain a 29.22x P/E multiple, even though BofA's 2026-10-23 analysis expects merely 'largely in-line' results rather than the earnings beats required to justify a 46% to 81% P/E premium over AMZN (20.0x) and GOOGL (16.1x).
Citing the 34.8% 3-month and 23.5% 6-month price returns as a primary bull point masks the fact that the 1-year price return is just 0.8%, demonstrating that recent gains merely recovered a severe prior drawdown rather than establishing a durable multi-year breakout.
YoY revenue growth decelerates below the latest quarterly rate of 17.7%.
YoY revenue growth decelerates below the latest quarterly rate of 17.7%.
Monitor These Triggers
3 Checkpoints · Next PrintYoY revenue growth relative to the 17.7% baseline and YoY EPS growth relative to the 31.8% baseline to confirm Azure-driven operating leverage.
Go deeper
For learning and research only — not investment advice. AlphaDog doesn’t hold stocks and isn’t your financial advisor.
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