MS · sample dossier
Morgan Stanley
58/100
OutdatedGenerated Oct 10, 2026 · 10:00 AM UTC · 3 hours ago
This copy is frozen (Oct 10). Sign in to run the same work — filings, valuation, bull and bear, sources — on any US stock or ETF, in about 90 seconds.
Run a fresh dossierMS
EquityMorgan StanleyXNYS
Decision context
HOLD
54% convictionScore 58 · Hold
A mixed picture — no strong reason to buy or sell right now.
The stock trades 10.0% above our estimate.
Current price
$190.02
Estimated value range
$155.18 – $173.18
Gap vs AlphaDog estimate
-10.0%
Narrow evidence — range rests on a single usable method.
The price is above our estimate, providing little valuation support.
Market context
Price
Price when available
Pick how far back the chart looks
1 month
-10.6%
3 months
-14.1%
6 months
+7.0%
1 year
+22.1%
Financial trajectory
Executive summary & thesis
Morgan Stanley is a global investment banking and wealth management firm capitalized at $298.44B, trading at a P/E ratio of 15.35 and a Price/Book of 2.80.
- EPS surged 62.4% YoY in the quarter reported on 2026-07-15, demonstrating powerful operating leverage across banking and wealth operations.
- Revenue expanded 27.4% YoY for the quarter ended 2026-06-30, supported by an 87.6% gross margin.
- Net margin reached 25.9% over the trailing twelve months, reflecting sustained pricing power.
- Debt/Equity ratio stands at 5.17, exposing the capital base to wholesale funding risks.
- Trailing twelve month FCF/share is deeply negative at -$13.24, highlighting high operational cash absorption.
- Insiders sold net -$382.22M over the trailing 3 months, led by Mitsubishi UFJ's $284.95M sale on 2026-09-22.
Things to keep in mind
- 1Base target implies 10.0% downsideView source
- 2P/E 15.3xView source
- 3Debt/Equity 5.17View source
What to watch next
Factor profile
Growth-led profile
| Factor | Score |
|---|---|
| Quality | 68 out of 100 (Neutral). Business health — profits, returns, and consistency. Higher means a more durable company. |
| Growth | 87 out of 100 (Elite). How fast sales and earnings are rising. Higher means the business is expanding faster. |
| Value | 72 out of 100 (Strong). How cheap the stock looks for what you get. Higher means a more attractive price. |
| Safety | 15 out of 100 (Weak). Balance-sheet cushion and fewer red flags. Higher means less risk of a nasty surprise. |
| Momentum | 37 out of 100 (Weak). Recent share-price trend. Higher means buyers have been in control lately. |
Another way to look at it
A calmer look at both sides of the Morgan Stanley story
The prevailing consensus and debate victory awarded to the bull thesis mistakenly conflate a cyclical capital markets surge with durable operational moats.
Morgan Stanley's 62.4% year-over-year EPS jump reported in July 2026 masks underlying structural fragility, as the business burns significant cash with trailing free cash flow per share sitting at negative $13.24. The firm's optical profitability relies heavily on balance sheet gearing, evident in a low 1.3% return on assets amplified by an elevated debt-to-equity ratio of 5.17. Meanwhile, sophisticated insiders are aggressively taking liquidity into this strength, dumping $382.22 million in stock over three months, led by Mitsubishi UFJ's $284.95 million divestment. With the stock trading below both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages and commanding an unjustified premium at 15.35 times earnings versus Goldman Sachs at 13.8, current consensus is underpricing wholesale funding risks and cyclical mean reversion. Investors should fade the consensus optimism as technical breakdown and operating cash absorption expose the fragility of this earnings run.
The debate completely ignores operational cash absorption, overlooking trailing twelve month free cash flow per share of negative $13.24 while celebrating accounting EPS of $3.46.
Consensus overlooks massive net insider distributions totaling $382.22 million over three months, including strategic partner Mitsubishi UFJ selling $284.95 million on 2026-09-22 and CFO Sharon Yeshaya selling $1.42 million.
Asset efficiency is dangerously diluted, with return on assets at an anaemic 1.3%, revealing that headline returns are manufactured through 5.17 debt-to-equity balance sheet leverage rather than genuine capital productivity.
Extrapolating 27.4% year-over-year quarterly revenue growth forward despite institutional deal volume cyclicity and tape momentum deterioration of negative 10.6% over one month.
Pricing Morgan Stanley at a premium 15.35 P/E and 2.80 P/B relative to direct peers Goldman Sachs at 13.8 P/E and Citigroup at 14.0 P/E without justification given negative cash flow generation.
The debate judge summarily dismissed balance sheet vulnerability, ignoring a safety score of 15 out of 100 alongside wholesale funding exposure.
Revenue Growth (Latest Quarter YoY) falls below 27.4%.
Net Margin (TTM) drops below 25.9%.
Cash after investing
Cash-flow details are thin for MS — check the Financials tab when you can.
- Revenue Growth (Latest Quarter YoY) falls below 27.4%.
- Net Margin (TTM) drops below 25.9%.
- Debt/Equity improves from 5.17 or refinancing risk falls
For learning and research only — not investment advice. AlphaDog doesn’t hold stocks and isn’t your financial advisor.
Run the next one yourself.
You just read a full MS dossier — scored verdict, valuation, and both sides, with sources. Sign in to run that on a name you hold, on current filings. A free account includes 10 credits a week, 1 per fresh run.