MRSH · sample dossier
Marsh
46/100
OutdatedGenerated Oct 10, 2026 · 10:00 AM UTC · 3 hours ago
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EquityMarshXNYS
Decision context
HOLD
35% convictionScore 46 · Hold
A mixed picture — no strong reason to buy or sell right now.
No estimated value range on this report
Current price
$175.76
Estimated value range
—
Gap (vs price at analysis)
—
AlphaDog could not produce an estimate from comps or DCF. Analyst targets are shown separately and are not the AlphaDog estimate.
Estimated value range is unavailable for this instrument.
Market context
Price
Price when available
Pick how far back the chart looks
1 month
-0.9%
3 months
-3.2%
6 months
+4.5%
1 year
-14.2%
Financial trajectory
Executive summary & thesis
Marsh (MRSH) operates as a global professional services firm with an $83.87B market cap, generating a 14.2% net margin and $9.89 in free cash flow per share.
- Strong cash generation produces $9.89 in free cash flow per share, sustaining a solid 14.2% net margin.
- Second-quarter 2026 consolidated revenue rose 6% year-over-year to $7.4 billion, reflecting 5% underlying growth across operations.
- Risk and Insurance Services revenue reached $4.8 billion in Q2 2026, delivering steady 4% top-line expansion.
- Elevated balance sheet leverage shows a Debt/Equity ratio of 1.45, heightening financial risk if earnings momentum contracts.
- Technical and market momentum remains weak with a 1-year return of -14.2%, with shares trading below both MA50 and MA200.
- Six-month diluted EPS through June 30, 2026 declined 5% to $4.99, demonstrating margin compression despite 7% reported revenue expansion.
Things to keep in mind
- 1P/E 21.6xView source
- 2Debt/Equity 1.45View source
- 3Elevated balance sheet leverage shows a Debt/Equity ratio of 1.45, heightening financial risk if earnings momentum contracts.View source
What to watch next
Factor profile
Balanced operator
| Factor | Score |
|---|---|
| Quality | 61 out of 100 (Neutral). Business health — profits, returns, and consistency. Higher means a more durable company. |
| Growth | 34 out of 100 (Weak). How fast sales and earnings are rising. Higher means the business is expanding faster. |
| Value | 62 out of 100 (Neutral). How cheap the stock looks for what you get. Higher means a more attractive price. |
| Safety | 44 out of 100 (Neutral). Balance-sheet cushion and fewer red flags. Higher means less risk of a nasty surprise. |
| Momentum | 20 out of 100 (Weak). Recent share-price trend. Higher means buyers have been in control lately. |
Another way to look at it
A calmer look at both sides of the Marsh story
The consensus view that Marsh is an unassailable defensive compounder worthy of a neutral hold rating ignores evident operational deterioration and elevated leverage.
Despite 7% revenue growth to $15.0 billion in the first half of 2026, operating income fell 5% to $3.7 billion and diluted EPS dropped 5% to $4.99, demonstrating severe negative operating leverage. The market is pricing Marsh at an aggressive 21.6 P/E and 5.5 P/B despite an uninspiring 7.2% ROA and a high Debt/Equity ratio of 1.45 to 1.50. Furthermore, sequential quarterly revenues decelerated from $7.60 billion in Q1 2026 to $7.40 billion in Q2 2026 while shares remain trapped below both the 50-day and 200-day moving averages down 14.2% over the trailing year. Relying on trailing free cash flow while margins compress under financial leverage exposes investors to multiple contraction.
Consensus ignores negative operating leverage where 6-month revenue rose 7% to $15.0 billion while operating income dropped 5% to $3.7 billion and diluted EPS fell 5% to $4.99.
The neutral consensus fails to account for sequential top-line contraction from $7.60 billion in Q1 2026 to $7.40 billion in Q2 2026.
Consensus celebrates token insider buys such as 194 shares while omitting the net insider outflow of -$6.82 million over the trailing three months.
Assuming sustained earnings resilience when an ROA of 7.2% is encumbered by a Debt/Equity ratio of 1.45 across an $83.87 billion market capitalization.
Valuing the business at 21.6 P/E and 5.5 P/B despite negative 1-year returns of -14.2% and technical failure below both MA50 and MA200.
Extrapolating $9.89 to $10.03 free cash flow per share without factoring in the 5% contraction in first-half 2026 operating profits.
Consolidated revenue growth YoY falls below the latest quarterly print of 6.2%.
Net margin contracts below the current baseline of 14.2%.
Cash after investing
See whether Marsh still makes cash after it spends to grow.
- Consolidated revenue growth YoY falls below the latest quarterly print of 6.2%.
- Net margin contracts below the current baseline of 14.2%.
- Debt/Equity improves from 1.45 or refinancing risk falls
For learning and research only — not investment advice. AlphaDog doesn’t hold stocks and isn’t your financial advisor.
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