MGM · sample dossier
MGM RESORTS INTERNATIONAL
46/100
Stale StatementsGenerated Oct 24, 2026 · 10:00 AM UTC · 1 hour ago
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EquityMGM RESORTS INTERNATIONAL · XNYS
Decision context
Recommendation
A mixed picture — no strong reason to buy or sell right now.
AlphaDog Fair Value
Market context
Snapshot returns at report publication
1 month
-16.7%
3 months
-39.4%
6 months
-29.0%
1 year
-14.1%
At a Glance
A mid-sized company is in a pullback at fair pricing.
Top Holders
As of Jun 30, 2026Financial trajectory
Financial Performance
Executive thesis & key metrics
Executive Thesis
MGM Resorts International (MGM) is a $7.18B market cap gaming and hospitality operator trading at $28.06 with a TTM P/E of 17.32 and TTM EV/EBITDA of 15.79.
Key Metrics to Watch
What changed recently
No material changes found in the last 30 days.
Why this rating
Score 46 · Hold
Data through
Stale StatementsJun 30, 2026
A newer quarter has been reported and is not in these statements.
Composite 46/100 — no single factor above 75 dominates.
Re-evaluate if
- Net margin falls below 1.9% (was 2.4%)
- Debt/Equity (TTM) declines sustainably below 8.93 and the Altman Z-score improves above 0.75.
Trim / reconsider if
- ROA falls below 1.1% (was 1.8%)
- Debt/Equity (TTM) increases above 8.93 or FCF/Share (TTM) falls below $5.80.
Think of these dollars as a map of our value estimate for Hold — helpful context, not a reason to override the view.
A Calmer Look · Devil's Advocate
While the prevailing consensus rightly reaches an 'Avoid' verdict based on the 0.75 Altman Z-score and 8.93 Debt/Equity ratio, both the synthesis report and debate fail to resolve the glaring accounting contradiction between distress-level credit metrics and a massive $5.80 TTM FCF/share on a $28.06 stock.
May be overlooked
Unreconciled cash flow versus leverage divergence
Neither side explains how MGM can generate $5.80 in TTM FCF/share (a 20.7% yield on the $28.06 share price) while simultaneously carrying an 8.93 Debt/Equity ratio, a 15.79 EV/EBITDA multiple, and a 2.4% TTM net margin.
Stale financial baseline during a price collapse
The Q2 2026 earnings data (period ended June 30, 2026), along with SEC filings from October 2025 through May 2026 and peer comparisons from June 3 and July 3, 2026, are stale by more than 90 days, leaving the drivers of the recent -16.7% 1-month and -39.4% 3-month stock drop unexamined.
Capital allocation and regulatory write-off fallout
The consensus glosses over the stale October 29, 2025 Form 8-K disclosing $256M in goodwill impairment and $93M in write-offs from withdrawing the Empire City gaming license application, ignoring how losing growth avenues traps MGM in a 1.0% YoY revenue growth regime.
Expectations look stretched
Illusory earnings growth extrapolation
The bull case touts 516.7% YoY EPS growth and +131.3% QoQ Q2 EPS expansion ($0.48 to $1.11) on flat $4.45B quarterly revenue and 1.0% YoY top-line growth, mistaking low-base volatility in a 2.4% net margin business for durable operating leverage.
Flawed P/E peer framing
Bulls claim a 17.32 TTM P/E and 2.81 P/B represent an 80th percentile value bargain by comparing MGM to unprofitable peers CZR (-12.7 P/E) and DKNG (-59.7 P/E), ignoring that on a capital-structure-neutral EV/EBITDA basis, MGM (15.79) trades at a steep premium to CZR (9.0) and BYD (7.1).
Absence of insider conviction at depressed prices
Despite a -39.4% 3-month drawdown to $28.06 and a purported $5.80 FCF/share, insiders recorded 0 open-market buys over the past 3 months, opting only for routine option exercises and tax withholdings ($145,740 and $39,510) on October 7, 2026.
Debt/Equity (TTM) declines sustainably below 8.93 and the Altman Z-score improves above 0.75.
Debt/Equity (TTM) declines sustainably below 8.93 and the Altman Z-score improves above 0.75.
Monitor These Triggers
3 Checkpoints · Next PrintYoY Revenue Growth (baseline: 1.0%) and TTM Debt/Equity (baseline: 8.93) to evaluate whether operating cash flow can reduce balance-sheet leverage.
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