LMT · sample dossier
Lockheed Martin Corp.
47/100
Stale StatementsGenerated Oct 17, 2026 · 10:00 AM UTC · 2 hours ago
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EquityLockheed Martin Corp.XNYS
Decision context
HOLD
74% convictionScore 47 · Hold
A mixed picture — no strong reason to buy or sell right now.
The stock trades 2.1% above our estimate.
Current price
$552.09
Estimated value range
$443.98 – $613.83
Gap vs AlphaDog estimate
-2.1%
Narrow evidence — range rests on a single usable method.
The price is above our estimate, providing little valuation support.
Market context
Price
Price when available
Pick how far back the chart looks
1 month
+2.6%
3 months
+8.4%
6 months
-6.8%
1 year
+10.5%
Financial trajectory
Executive summary & thesis
Lockheed Martin Corp. is a $127.42B market cap aerospace and defense contractor trading at a P/E of 20.35 and EV/EBITDA of 14.89 as of October 2026.
- Trailing twelve-month free cash flow per share stands at $37.77, providing robust support for capital allocation.
- Latest quarter ended June 28, 2026 generated 10.5% YoY revenue growth to $20,063 million and 443.8% EPS growth.
- Solvency risk remains low, as demonstrated by an Altman Z-score of 3.32 as of October 2026.
- Balance-sheet leverage is elevated with a Debt/Equity ratio of 2.34 as of the quarter ended June 28, 2026.
- Valuation carries little tangible asset cushion, trading at a Price/Book multiple of 14.48 as of October 2026.
- Medium-term technical momentum is negative, with a 6-month return of -6.8% and trading below its 200-day moving average.
Things to keep in mind
- 1Base target implies 2.1% downsideView source
- 2P/E 20.3xView source
- 3Debt/Equity 2.34View source
What to watch next
What changed recently
No material changes found in the last 30 days.
Why this rating
Score 47 · Hold
Data through
Stale StatementsJun 30, 2026
A newer quarter has been reported and is not in these statements. The rating is capped at Hold until the statements catch up.
Factor profile
Balanced operator
| Factor | Score |
|---|---|
| Quality | 38 out of 100 (Weak). Business health — profits, returns, and consistency. Higher means a more durable company. |
| Growth | 71 out of 100 (Strong). How fast sales and earnings are rising. Higher means the business is expanding faster. |
| Value | 45 out of 100 (Neutral). How cheap the stock looks for what you get. Higher means a more attractive price. |
| Safety | 40 out of 100 (Neutral). Balance-sheet cushion and fewer red flags. Higher means less risk of a nasty surprise. |
| Momentum | 41 out of 100 (Neutral). Recent share-price trend. Higher means buyers have been in control lately. |
Another way to look at it
A calmer look at both sides of the Lockheed Martin Corp. story
The consensus hold stance dangerously overlooks that Lockheed Martin is priced for operational perfection despite thin operating profitability and high structural leverage.
While consensus extols quarterly revenue growth of 10.5% YoY to $20,063 million, net margins remain constrained at just 8.2% and gross margins sit at 11.8%, leaving minimal room for execution missteps. Furthermore, an elevated Debt/Equity ratio of 2.34 combined with an uninspiring Piotroski F-score of 5/9 signals stagnant fundamental momentum rather than a pristine balance sheet. Paying an EV/EBITDA multiple of 14.89 and a Price/Book of 14.48 for an asset base yielding an ROA of only 8.6% exposes investors to severe multiple compression if procurement cycles normalize. Finally, the stock continues trading below its 200-day moving average and carries a negative 6-month return of -6.8%, confirming that broader institutional demand is already rejecting this valuation premium.
The synthesis treats an Altman Z-score of 3.32 as a clean bill of solvency while entirely ignoring that a Debt/Equity ratio of 2.34 leaves the company vulnerable under an asset-light tangible base reflected in a 14.48 Price/Book ratio.
Neither side reconciles the conflicting free cash flow claims of $37.77 per share in the synthesis report versus $24.10 per share in the debate case, obscuring true cash generation quality.
Consensus discounts the technical deterioration indicated by price trading below the 200-day moving average and a negative 6-month return of -6.8%.
Extrapolating a single quarter revenue growth rate of 10.5% YoY to assume sustained 6 to 12 month program funding without factoring in gross margin compression at 11.8%.
Pricing Lockheed Martin at a P/E multiple of 20.35—a premium to peer Northrop Grumman at 16.5 and Textron at 14.3—despite delivering an ROA of only 8.6%.
Over-crediting the 443.8% EPS growth in the quarter ended June 28, 2026 as structural rather than a baseline normalization from prior cyclical quarters.
Revenue growth falls below the latest quarterly print of 10.5% YoY.
Trailing net margin declines below 8.2%.
Cash after investing
See whether Lockheed Martin Corp. still makes cash after it spends to grow.
- Revenue growth falls below the latest quarterly print of 10.5% YoY.
- Trailing net margin declines below 8.2%.
- Debt/Equity improves from 2.34 or refinancing risk falls
For learning and research only — not investment advice. AlphaDog doesn’t hold stocks and isn’t your financial advisor.
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