JPM · sample dossier
JPMorgan Chase & Co.
59/100
OutdatedGenerated Oct 10, 2026 · 10:00 AM UTC · 1 hour ago
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EquityJPMorgan Chase & Co.XNYS
Decision context
HOLD
74% convictionScore 59 · Hold
A mixed picture — no strong reason to buy or sell right now.
The stock trades 3.1% above our estimate.
Current price
$332.99
Estimated value range
$292.80 – $326.76
Gap vs AlphaDog estimate
-3.1%
Narrow evidence — range rests on a single usable method.
The price is above our estimate, providing little valuation support.
Market context
Price
Price when available
Pick how far back the chart looks
1 month
-5.8%
3 months
-0.5%
6 months
+7.5%
1 year
+9.5%
Financial trajectory
Executive summary & thesis
JPMorgan Chase & Co. operates as a global financial services firm with an $885.15B market cap, trading at a price-to-earnings multiple of 14.27 and price-to-book ratio of 2.50.
- On July 14, 2026, second-quarter EPS surged 46.9% YoY to $7.70, driven by 17.8% YoY revenue growth.
- Trailing net margin remains highly profitable at 34.9%, generating $21.2 billion in net income in the quarter reported on July 14, 2026.
- Four board members demonstrated conviction by purchasing shares on September 30, 2026, totaling $171,250 in open-market transactions.
- Trailing free cash flow per share stands at -$55.60, highlighting severe cash conversion divergence despite reported earnings.
- Valuation remains elevated at a 2.50 price-to-book ratio, whereas peer Wells Fargo trades at a lower P/E of 11.9.
- Near-term technical momentum is negative, marked by a 1-month return of -5.8% with the share price breaking below its 50-day moving average.
Things to keep in mind
- 1Base target implies 3.1% downsideView source
- 2P/E 14.3xView source
- 3Trailing free cash flow per share stands at -$55.60, highlighting severe cash conversion divergence despite reported earnings.View source
What to watch next
Factor profile
Growth-led profile
| Factor | Score |
|---|---|
| Quality | 43 out of 100 (Neutral). Business health — profits, returns, and consistency. Higher means a more durable company. |
| Growth | 78 out of 100 (Strong). How fast sales and earnings are rising. Higher means the business is expanding faster. |
| Value | 74 out of 100 (Strong). How cheap the stock looks for what you get. Higher means a more attractive price. |
| Safety | 55 out of 100 (Neutral). Balance-sheet cushion and fewer red flags. Higher means less risk of a nasty surprise. |
| Momentum | 48 out of 100 (Neutral). Recent share-price trend. Higher means buyers have been in control lately. |
Another way to look at it
A calmer look at both sides of the JPM story
The consensus and debate victor have anchored entirely on JPM's backward-looking Q2 2026 net income surge of $21.2B and 34.9% net margin, mistaking cyclical peak profitability for an enduring baseline.
At a price-to-book multiple of 2.50, JPM trades at an unjustified valuation premium over peers like Wells Fargo at 11.9 P/E, leaving investors exposed to rapid multiple compression. Crucially, the consensus completely ignores the severe forensic red flag of trailing free cash flow per share sitting at -$55.60, demonstrating that paper accounting earnings are failing to convert into distributable cash. Meanwhile, bulls tout $171,250 in aggregate director purchases across four board members on September 30, 2026, a trivial sum representing under 0.00002% of the company's $885.15B market cap. With the share price already breaching below its 50-day moving average after a -5.8% 1-month decline, paying 14.3 P/E for a business with 1.4% ROA and expanding funded debt poses asymmetric downside risk.
Severe cash conversion disconnect marked by trailing free cash flow per share of -$55.60 despite reported net margin of 34.9%, an anomaly completely unaddressed in the debate.
Elevated balance sheet valuation risk at 2.50 P/B relative to peer Wells Fargo trading at a discounted 11.9 P/E.
The praised Q2 2026 net income of $21.2B reported on July 14, 2026 is 88 days old, approaching the 90-day staleness boundary without verification of current net interest margin trajectory.
Extrapolating a 46.9% YoY EPS surge to $7.70 as sustainable structural earnings power rather than a cyclical rate-driven peak.
Framing four board member purchases totaling $171,250 on September 30, 2026 as a major conviction signal when it represents less than 0.00002% of JPM's $885.15B market cap.
Dismissing technical weakness—specifically a -5.8% 1-month drop and a break below the 50-day moving average—as routine cooling while pricing the stock at 2.50 P/B on a modest 1.4% ROA.
Revenue growth falls below the latest quarterly YoY print of 17.8%.
EPS growth drops below the 46.9% YoY rate reported on July 14, 2026.
Cash after investing
Cash-flow details are thin for JPM — check the Financials tab when you can.
- Revenue growth falls below the latest quarterly YoY print of 17.8%.
- EPS growth drops below the 46.9% YoY rate reported on July 14, 2026.
For learning and research only — not investment advice. AlphaDog doesn’t hold stocks and isn’t your financial advisor.
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