JILL · sample dossier
J.Jill, Inc. Common Stock
54/100
OutdatedGenerated Aug 29, 2026 · 10:00 AM UTC · 69 days ago
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EquityJ.Jill, Inc. Common Stock
Decision context
Recommendation
Balanced between solid Value (88/100) and constrained Growth (4/100).
A mixed picture — no strong reason to buy or sell right now.
AlphaDog Fair Value
Executive thesis & key metrics
Executive Investment Thesis
J.Jill, Inc. is a women's apparel retailer operating with a $296.04M market cap, a 67.8% gross margin, and free cash flow of $0.87 per share. Top-line and earnings contraction are evident, with revenue growth at -6.0% YoY and EPS growth declining -59.2% YoY alongside a P/E of 14.45 and EV/EBITDA of 7.66. The core risk centers on elevated leverage with a Debt/Equity ratio of 1.76 and a thin 3.6% net margin.
Key Metrics to Watch
What changed recently
No material changes found in the last 30 days.
Why this rating
Score 54 · Hold
Data through
OutdatedApr 30, 2026
Value 88/100 — P/E 14.5x screens cheap vs inputs.
Re-evaluate if
- Net margin falls below 2.8% (was 3.6%)
- Revenue Growth YoY falls below -6.0%
Trim / reconsider if
- ROA falls below 3.9% (was 6.0%)
- Debt/Equity increases above the current 1.76 level.
Think of these dollars as a map of our value estimate for Hold — helpful context, not a reason to override the view.
A Calmer Look · Devil's Advocate
The consensus 'Hold' verdict and balanced risk/reward narrative dangerously underestimate the vulnerability of J.Jill's 3.6% net margin to ongoing negative operating leverage.
May be overlooked
Accounting distortions masking true sales demand via the 2026-03-31 policy revision that shortened merchandise return windows from 90 to 60 days and altered return reserve methodologies.
Critical operational sensitivity where a -6.0% drop in revenue caused a -59.2% collapse in EPS, indicating extreme fixed overhead and operating deleverage that consensus treats as transient.
Balance sheet inflexibility with a Debt/Equity ratio of 1.76 and Piotroski F-score of 5/9, which restricts refinancing options under further revenue contraction.
Expectations look stretched
Extrapolating a 67.8% gross margin as evidence of pricing power despite revenue contracting across consecutive quarters from $153.99M down to $144.43M.
Treating the 49.5% three-month price momentum as fundamental stabilization rather than a technical overshoot above MA50 and MA200 levels.
Assuming the $0.87 FCF per share is durable when net margin stands at a razor-thin 3.6% and ROA is constrained at 6.0%.
Revenue growth falls further below -6.0% YoY.
Revenue growth falls further below -6.0% YoY.
Monitor These Triggers
0 Checkpoints · Next PrintRevenue Growth YoY (current baseline: -6.0%)
Market context
Snapshot returns at report publication
1 month
+8.2%
3 months
+49.5%
6 months
+12.0%
1 year
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At a Glance
A smaller company is on a steady trend at modest pricing.
Top Holders
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For learning and research only — not investment advice. AlphaDog doesn’t hold stocks and isn’t your financial advisor.
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