JBHT · sample dossier
JB Hunt Transport Services Inc
59/100
OutdatedGenerated Oct 10, 2026 · 10:00 AM UTC · 1 hour ago
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EquityJB Hunt Transport Services IncXNAS
Decision context
HOLD
74% convictionScore 59 · Hold
A mixed picture — no strong reason to buy or sell right now.
The stock trades 34.6% below our estimate.
Current price
$229.26
Estimated value range
$240.40 – $654.98
Gap vs AlphaDog estimate
+34.6%
The stock trades at a discount, but execution uncertainties suggest waiting for a clearer catalyst.
Market context
Price
Price when available
Pick how far back the chart looks
1 month
-14.4%
3 months
-19.0%
6 months
+1.0%
1 year
+56.4%
Financial trajectory
Executive summary & thesis
JB Hunt Transport Services Inc is a surface transportation provider with a market capitalization of $21.53B, trading at $229.26 with a P/E ratio of 32.47 and EV/EBITDA of 13.70.
- Quarterly EPS growth accelerated 45.8% YoY alongside 19.4% YoY revenue growth, demonstrating operational leverage.
- Balance sheet solvency is solid with a Debt/Equity ratio of 0.38 and an Altman Z-score of 5.41.
- Cash generation remains sound with $11.58 in free cash flow per share and a Piotroski F-score of 7/9.
- Shares command an expensive valuation with a P/E ratio of 32.47 and a Price/Book multiple of 5.89.
- Price action shows weakness with a 3-month return of -19.0% and shares trading below 50-day and 200-day moving averages.
- Thin profit margins of 5.3% net margin and 7.4% ROA leave limited cushion against freight rate compression.
Things to keep in mind
- 1P/E 32.5xView source
- 2Net margin 5.3%View source
- 3Shares command an expensive valuation with a P/E ratio of 32.47 and a Price/Book multiple of 5.89.View source
What to watch next
Factor profile
Growth-led profile
| Factor | Score |
|---|---|
| Quality | 44 out of 100 (Neutral). Business health — profits, returns, and consistency. Higher means a more durable company. |
| Growth | 79 out of 100 (Strong). How fast sales and earnings are rising. Higher means the business is expanding faster. |
| Value | 52 out of 100 (Neutral). How cheap the stock looks for what you get. Higher means a more attractive price. |
| Safety | 73 out of 100 (Strong). Balance-sheet cushion and fewer red flags. Higher means less risk of a nasty surprise. |
| Momentum | 45 out of 100 (Neutral). Recent share-price trend. Higher means buyers have been in control lately. |
Another way to look at it
A calmer look at both sides of the JBHT story
The prevailing consensus rates JBHT as a benign 'Hold' while both bulls and bears accept its recent 19.4% YoY revenue growth and 45.8% EPS growth as sustainable operational leverage.
Paying a P/E multiple of 32.5 and a Price/Book of 5.9 for an asset-heavy freight operator with a thin 5.3% net margin leaves zero margin of safety for the next cyclical downturn. The market has already initiated an aggressive de-rating, driving shares down 14.4% over 1 month and 19.0% over 3 months below both the 50-day and 200-day moving averages. With an ROA of just 7.4% and gross margins constrained at 18.5%, any minor compression in freight volumes will trigger rapid operating deleveraging. Stale insider activity from May and June 2026—surpassing $3.01 million in executive divestitures—suggests internal leadership was already monetizing peak valuation. JBHT is priced like a high-margin structural compounder rather than a low-margin cyclical carrier facing rate mean-reversion.
Neither the consensus report nor the debate models the impact of cyclical rate mean-reversion on a business with only an 18.5% gross margin and 5.3% net margin.
The analysis ignores whether the quarterly EPS surge of 45.8% YoY is an unrepeatable trough-comparison anomaly rather than durable operational efficiency.
Insider selling data from May and June 2026 is over 90 days stale, obscuring whether executive divestitures accelerated during the recent 19.0% 3-month share price collapse.
Extrapolating 19.4% YoY revenue growth into future quarters assumes sustained freight volume demand that historically experiences sharp cyclical contraction.
Relying on a Piotroski F-score of 7/9 and Altman Z-score of 5.41 to justify a 32.5 P/E multiple conflates balance sheet solvency with valuation support.
Justifying valuation by comparing JBHT's 32.5 P/E to peers at 35.0 (ODFL) and 43.9 (LSTR) ignores that the entire trucking peer group may be trading at peak-cycle valuation multiples.
Revenue Growth (Latest Quarter YoY) decelerates below 19.4%.
EPS Growth (Latest Quarter YoY) falls below 45.8%.
Cash after investing
See whether JBHT still makes cash after it spends to grow.
- Revenue Growth (Latest Quarter YoY) decelerates below 19.4%.
- EPS Growth (Latest Quarter YoY) falls below 45.8%.
- Net margin expands above 5.3% for two consecutive quarters
Monitor these triggers
3 checkpoints before the next earnings print
Revenue Growth (Latest Quarter YoY) against the current 19.4% baseline.
Net Margin contracts below 5.3%.
Debt/Equity ratio increases beyond 0.38.
Revenue Growth (Latest Quarter YoY) turns lower than 19.4%.
For learning and research only — not investment advice. AlphaDog doesn’t hold stocks and isn’t your financial advisor.
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