INNV · sample dossier
InnovAge Holding Corp. Common Stock
50/100
OutdatedGenerated Sep 5, 2026 · 10:00 AM UTC · 61 days ago
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EquityInnovAge Holding Corp. Common Stock · XNAS
Decision context
Recommendation
Balanced between solid Momentum (72/100) and constrained Valuation (17/100).
A mixed picture — no strong reason to buy or sell right now.
AlphaDog Fair Value
Executive thesis & key metrics
Executive Thesis
InnovAge Holding Corp. is a healthcare services provider with a market cap of $1.46B, generating a 68.3% gross margin and positive free cash flow per share of $0.31 (four-quarter statements).
Key Metrics to Watch
What changed recently
No material changes found in the last 30 days.
Why this rating
Score 50 · Hold
Data through
OutdatedMar 31, 2026
Composite 50/100 — no single factor above 75 dominates.
Re-evaluate if
- Net margin falls below -1.0% (was -1.2%)
Trim / reconsider if
- ROA falls below 0.4% (was 0.7%)
- Net Margin drops below -1.2%
Think of these dollars as a map of our value estimate for Hold — helpful context, not a reason to override the view.
A Calmer Look · Devil's Advocate
The consensus 'Hold' verdict drastically understates downside risk by treating a 194.5% one-year price surge as sustainable despite unproven operational turnaround.
May be overlooked
Severe filing opacity
Regulatory filings are stale by 120 days as of 2026-09-05 with no audited financial reporting since the 2026-05-08 Form 10-Q, leaving the market blind to trailing summer performance.
Overhead leakage
The company entirely consumes its 68.3% gross margin in operating costs, driving ROA down to 0.7% and net margin to -1.2%.
Operational stagnation
A middling Piotroski F-score of 5/9 demonstrates that revenue expansion to $251.94M has not produced structural quality or balance sheet efficiency improvements.
Expectations look stretched
Extreme valuation divergence
Paying an EV/EBITDA multiple of 60.6 and Price/Book of 6.4 for a business posting a negative net margin of -1.2% and negative P/E of -134.4.
Ignoring severe quarterly earnings contraction
The market awarded a 194.5% 1-year gain even though quarterly EPS swung from $0.08 down to -$0.22 in the period ended 2026-03-31.
Overestimating free cash flow durability
Relying on $0.41 per share in free cash flow as a valuation cushion despite persistent GAAP unprofitability.
Revenue growth YoY decelerates below 15.5%.
Revenue growth YoY decelerates below 15.5%.
Monitor These Triggers
3 Checkpoints · Next PrintNet margin (current baseline: -1.2%) to assess operational trajectory toward GAAP breakeven.
Market context
Snapshot returns at report publication
1 month
-2.1%
3 months
+47.3%
6 months
+19.7%
1 year
+194.5%
At a Glance
A smaller company has mixed momentum at unprofitable earnings.
Top Holders
Financial trajectory
Financial Performance
Go deeper
For learning and research only — not investment advice. AlphaDog doesn’t hold stocks and isn’t your financial advisor.
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