HIG · sample dossier
The Hartford Insurance Group, Inc.
69/100
Stale StatementsGenerated Oct 24, 2026 · 10:00 AM UTC · 1 hour ago
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EquityThe Hartford Insurance Group, Inc. · XNYS
Decision context
Recommendation
A mixed picture — no strong reason to buy or sell right now.
AlphaDog Fair Value
Market context
Snapshot returns at report publication
1 month
+8.8%
3 months
-2.4%
6 months
+1.7%
1 year
+9.5%
At a Glance
A large company is on a steady trend at modest pricing.
Top Holders
As of Jun 30, 2026Financial trajectory
Financial Performance
Executive thesis & key metrics
Executive Thesis
The Hartford Insurance Group, Inc. (HIG) is a $37.04B market-cap insurer trading at $136.76 with a 14.9% TTM net margin and $20.95 in TTM FCF/share.
Key Metrics to Watch
What changed recently
No material changes found in the last 30 days.
Why this rating
The latest quarter is more than 100 days old, so this stays a Hold.
Data through
Stale StatementsJun 30, 2026
A newer quarter has been reported and is not in these statements.
Value 94/100 — P/E 9.7x screens cheap vs inputs.
Re-evaluate if
- Net margin falls below 11.9% (was 14.9%)
- TTM FCF/share declines below $20.95.
Trim / reconsider if
- ROA falls below 2.5% (was 3.9%)
- TTM Debt/Equity rises above 0.22.
Think of these dollars as a map of our value estimate for Hold — helpful context, not a reason to override the view.
A Calmer Look · Devil's Advocate
The consensus Buy verdict and 69/100 composite score rely heavily on a superficial 9.68x TTM P/E and $20.95 FCF/share while ignoring standard insurance valuation mechanics.
May be overlooked
The consensus leans on EV/EBITDA (6.76x) and FCF/share ($20.95) to justify valuation, which are flawed metrics for insurance companies where reserve adjustments and float distort cash flow, while downplaying the steep 1.92x Price/Book multiple supported by only a 3.9% ROA.
The core growth metrics underpinning the Buy thesis—specifically Q2 EPS rising 53.9% QoQ to $4.68 and $7.15B in quarterly revenue—rely on period data from 2026-06-30 and Item 2.02 releases from 2026-07-23 and 2026-07-15, which are over 90 days old and explicitly stale as of 2026-10-24.
The Filings Comment concludes there are 'no accounting red flags' simply because data on restatements or SEC inquiries is 'Not publicly available in the provided excerpts,' treating an absence of evidence in truncated data as proof of pristine reporting.
Expectations look stretched
Extrapolating 36.0% YoY EPS growth generated from just 6.6% YoY revenue growth assumes permanent operating leverage in a cyclical industry prone to mean-reverting catastrophe losses.
Assuming HIG's 9.68x P/E will re-rate toward peers like AIG (14.9x), AIZ (13.6x), and MET (19.8x) ignores that HIG already trades at a 6.76x EV/EBITDA premium to AIG's 5.1x and faces sequential revenue stagnation at $7.15B.
Dismissing the -2.4% 3-month return (20th peer percentile momentum) in favor of the +8.8% 1-month bounce overlooks that CEO Christopher Swift sold 35,088 shares on 2026-08-07 with 0 insider open-market purchases in the 3 months ended 2026-10-24.
YoY revenue growth slows below the 6.6% quarterly print.
YoY revenue growth slows below the 6.6% quarterly print.
Monitor These Triggers
4 Checkpoints · Next PrintYoY EPS growth relative to the 36.0% baseline and YoY revenue growth relative to the 6.6% baseline, alongside TTM net margin preservation at 14.9%.
Go deeper
For learning and research only — not investment advice. AlphaDog doesn’t hold stocks and isn’t your financial advisor.
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