GS · sample dossier
Goldman Sachs Group Inc.
62/100
OutdatedGenerated Oct 10, 2026 · 10:00 AM UTC · 1 hour ago
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EquityGoldman Sachs Group Inc.XNYS
Decision context
HOLD
62% convictionThe latest quarter is more than 100 days old, so this stays a Hold.
A mixed picture — no strong reason to buy or sell right now.
The stock trades near our estimate.
Current price
$895.32
Estimated value range
$812.79 – $924.35
Gap vs AlphaDog estimate
+1.3%
Narrow evidence — range rests on a single usable method.
Valuation is aligned with fundamentals; future returns depend on operational execution.
Market context
Price
Price when available
Pick how far back the chart looks
1 month
-12.2%
3 months
-14.4%
6 months
-1.4%
1 year
+15.3%
Financial trajectory
Executive summary & thesis
Goldman Sachs Group Inc. is an investment banking institution capitalized at $260.69B trading at $895.32, with a P/E ratio of 13.83 and Price/Book of 2.47.
- EPS expanded 92.3% YoY in the quarter reported on July 14, 2026, alongside 39.5% revenue growth.
- Goldman trades at a 13.83 P/E multiple, below peer valuations of 15.3 for Morgan Stanley and 14.3 for JPMorgan Chase.
- Operating profitability is resilient with an 82.1% gross margin and a 31.0% net margin over the trailing twelve months.
- Debt/Equity stands at an elevated 7.25, exposing the balance sheet to institutional credit and market shocks.
- Trailing free cash flow per share sits at -$162.17, highlighting negative cash conversion from banking balance sheet activities.
- Downside price momentum persists with a 3-month return of -14.4% and the stock trading below both MA50 and MA200.
Things to keep in mind
- 1P/E 13.8xView source
- 2Debt/Equity 7.25View source
- 3Debt/Equity stands at an elevated 7.25, exposing the balance sheet to institutional credit and market shocks.View source
What to watch next
Factor profile
Growth-led profile
| Factor | Score |
|---|---|
| Quality | 68 out of 100 (Neutral). Business health — profits, returns, and consistency. Higher means a more durable company. |
| Growth | 100 out of 100 (Elite). How fast sales and earnings are rising. Higher means the business is expanding faster. |
| Value | 75 out of 100 (Strong). How cheap the stock looks for what you get. Higher means a more attractive price. |
| Safety | 30 out of 100 (Weak). Balance-sheet cushion and fewer red flags. Higher means less risk of a nasty surprise. |
| Momentum | 29 out of 100 (Weak). Recent share-price trend. Higher means buyers have been in control lately. |
Another way to look at it
A calmer look at both sides of the GS story
The consensus buy rating treats Goldman Sachs's cyclical earnings spike—92.3% EPS growth and 39.5% revenue expansion—as a durable baseline, ignoring that capital markets activity mean-reverts sharply.
While bulls celebrate an apparently modest P/E of 13.8, paying 2.5 times book value for a financial institution generating a slim 1.1% ROA implies severe balance sheet over-earning rather than an enduring structural moat. The adversarial debate dismissed balance sheet risk as routine, yet a Debt/Equity ratio of 7.25 combined with a Safety factor score of 30 and FCF per share of -$162.17 leaves zero cushion if deal flow contracts. Severe technical deterioration, highlighted by a 1-month drop of -12.2% and the stock breaking below both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, signals that the market is already discounting an earnings peak. With insiders offloading -$1.09M in stock into this downturn rather than defending shares, chasing a 2.5x P/B valuation exposes investors to sharp cyclical downside.
The debate and scoring engine dismissed balance sheet risk despite a Debt/Equity ratio of 7.25, a Safety score of 30/100, and trailing FCF/share of -$162.17.
Goldman trades at a rich Price/Book multiple of 2.5 despite delivering a modest ROA of 1.1%, indicating equity returns are heavily financialized rather than asset-efficient.
Severe technical price breakdown was ignored, with the stock falling -12.2% over 1 month, -14.4% over 3 months, and sinking below both MA50 and MA200.
Consensus explicitly assumes advisory revenue will sustain above the 39.5% YoY baseline by relying on corporate underwriting backlogs that are highly sensitive to market shocks.
Extrapolating 92.3% YoY EPS growth from the July 14, 2026 quarter ignores that investment banking earnings are at high risk of cyclical mean-reversion.
Viewing Goldman's 13.8 P/E as an outright bargain relative to peers at 14.3–15.3 ignores that banking multiples compress near cyclical earnings peaks.
Revenue growth drops below the latest quarter YoY rate of 39.5%.
Debt/Equity rises above the current level of 7.25.
Cash after investing
Cash-flow details are thin for GS — check the Financials tab when you can.
- Revenue growth drops below the latest quarter YoY rate of 39.5%.
- Debt/Equity rises above the current level of 7.25.
- Debt/Equity improves from 7.25 or refinancing risk falls
For learning and research only — not investment advice. AlphaDog doesn’t hold stocks and isn’t your financial advisor.
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