GE · sample dossier
GE Aerospace
47/100
FreshGenerated Oct 17, 2026 · 10:00 AM UTC · 2 hours ago
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EquityGE AerospaceXNYS
Decision context
HOLD
66% convictionScore 47 · Hold
A mixed picture — no strong reason to buy or sell right now.
The stock trades 26.6% above our estimate.
Current price
$313.83
Estimated value range
$154.95 – $315.62
Gap vs AlphaDog estimate
-26.6%
The price is above our estimate, providing little valuation support.
Market context
Price
Price when available
Pick how far back the chart looks
1 month
+0.1%
3 months
-8.0%
6 months
+3.2%
1 year
+4.6%
Financial trajectory
Executive summary & thesis
GE Aerospace is an aerospace propulsion and systems provider with a market capitalization of $325.62B, trading at a P/E ratio of 37.01 and an EV/EBITDA of 29.27.
- Revenue expanded 21.1% YoY in the quarter reported on 2026-07-16, driven by high demand for commercial engine deliveries.
- Earnings quality is evidenced by 19.6% YoY EPS growth and $8.02 in free cash flow per share.
- Operating margins remain strong with a 31.1% gross margin and a 17.7% net margin reflecting commercial aftermarket pricing strength.
- Valuation creates severe multiple-risk with trailing P/E at 37.01 and EV/EBITDA at 29.27, ranking in the 0th peer percentile.
- Technical momentum is weak with a -8.0% 3-month price return and the stock trading below both MA50 and MA200.
- Solvency indicators highlight leverage risks with Debt/Equity standing at 1.13 and the Altman Z-score at 2.54 in grey territory.
Things to keep in mind
- 1Base target implies 26.6% downsideView source
- 2P/E 37.0xView source
- 3Debt/Equity 1.13View source
What to watch next
What changed recently
No material changes found in the last 30 days.
Why this rating
Score 47 · Hold
Data through
FreshJun 30, 2026
Factor profile
Balanced operator
| Factor | Score |
|---|---|
| Quality | 65 out of 100 (Neutral). Business health — profits, returns, and consistency. Higher means a more durable company. |
| Growth | 61 out of 100 (Neutral). How fast sales and earnings are rising. Higher means the business is expanding faster. |
| Value | 12 out of 100 (Weak). How cheap the stock looks for what you get. Higher means a more attractive price. |
| Safety | 59 out of 100 (Neutral). Balance-sheet cushion and fewer red flags. Higher means less risk of a nasty surprise. |
| Momentum | 27 out of 100 (Weak). Recent share-price trend. Higher means buyers have been in control lately. |
Another way to look at it
A calmer look at both sides of the GE Aerospace story
The prevailing consensus rates GE Aerospace a balanced 'Hold', but this complacency masks an untenable mismatch between valuation multiples and asset productivity.
Trading at an EV/EBITDA of 29.3 and P/E of 37.0, the company commands a 58% multiple premium over direct peer RTX (18.5 EV/EBITDA) despite generating an ROA of merely 5.1%. Consensus treats the 17.7% net margin and 21.1% revenue expansion as an enduring baseline, even though these metrics stem from a quarterly report now over 90 days stale. With the stock breaking below both its MA50 and MA200 and printing a -8.0% 3-month return, technical distribution is already contradicting the soft-landing narrative. Furthermore, a Debt/Equity ratio of 1.13 paired with an Altman Z-score of 2.54 in the grey zone leaves zero margin of safety for a business priced at 18.5 times book value.
Over-reliance on stale quarterly performance: The reported 21.1% YoY revenue growth and 19.6% EPS growth date back to 2026-07-16, exceeding the 90-day threshold without updated proof of delivery run-rates.
Balance sheet vulnerability in the grey zone: The Altman Z-score of 2.54 and Debt/Equity of 1.13 indicate material leverage risk that is ignored by bulls relying on the $8.02 FCF per share print.
Capital efficiency disconnect
Delivering an ROA of just 5.1% while equity trades at a P/B of 18.5 reveals that underlying asset generation is fundamentally decoupled from equity market pricing.
Unrealistic peer valuation divergence
GE Aerospace trades at an EV/EBITDA of 29.27, representing a 0th peer percentile valuation compared to RTX at 18.5 and 3M at 14.3.
Assuming peak commercial margins are permanent: Consensus models uninterrupted preservation of the 17.7% net margin and 31.1% gross margin despite macro cyclicality in airline capacity and spares demand.
Misinterpreting 1Y price gains
The modest 4.6% 1-year gain and flat 0.1% 1-month return conceal sharp momentum deterioration reflected in the -8.0% 3-month return.
Revenue growth YoY falls below 21.1%.
EPS growth YoY drops below 19.6%.
Cash after investing
See whether GE Aerospace still makes cash after it spends to grow.
- Revenue growth YoY falls below 21.1%.
- EPS growth YoY drops below 19.6%.
- Debt/Equity improves from 1.13 or refinancing risk falls
Monitor these triggers
3 checkpoints before the next earnings print
Revenue Growth YoY (current baseline: 21.1%)
Net margin falls below 17.7%.
Revenue growth YoY decelerates below 21.1%.
Debt/Equity ratio expands above 1.13.
For learning and research only — not investment advice. AlphaDog doesn’t hold stocks and isn’t your financial advisor.
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