GD · sample dossier
General Dynamics Corporation
53/100
FreshGenerated Oct 17, 2026 · 10:00 AM UTC · 2 hours ago
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EquityGeneral Dynamics CorporationXNYS
Decision context
HOLD
70% convictionScore 53 · Hold
A mixed picture — no strong reason to buy or sell right now.
The stock trades 3.7% above our estimate.
Current price
$344.23
Estimated value range
$279.23 – $381.97
Gap vs AlphaDog estimate
-3.7%
Narrow evidence — range rests on a single usable method.
The price is above our estimate, providing little valuation support.
Market context
Price
Price when available
Pick how far back the chart looks
1 month
-3.3%
3 months
-7.1%
6 months
+2.4%
1 year
+3.7%
Financial trajectory
Executive summary & thesis
General Dynamics Corporation is an aerospace and defense contractor with a market capitalization of $93.13B, trading at a P/E ratio of 21.00 and an EV/EBITDA of 14.80.
- Free cash flow generation is substantial, delivering $23.57 per share over the trailing twelve months.
- Quarterly operating performance showed resilience with 13.4% YoY EPS growth on 8.1% revenue growth.
- Balance sheet solvency is solid, evidenced by an Altman Z-score of 3.78 and Debt/Equity of 0.35.
- Valuation multiples of 21.00 P/E and 14.80 EV/EBITDA offer limited safety against potential procurement delays.
- Technical momentum is weak with a -7.1% 3-month return and the price trading below 50-day and 200-day moving averages.
- Asset productivity is restricted by manufacturing intensity, yielding a 6.1% ROA and 15.4% gross margin.
Things to keep in mind
- 1Base target implies 3.7% downsideView source
- 2P/E 21.0xView source
- 3Valuation multiples of 21.00 P/E and 14.80 EV/EBITDA offer limited safety against potential procurement delays.View source
What to watch next
What changed recently
No material changes found in the last 30 days.
Why this rating
Score 53 · Hold
Data through
FreshJul 5, 2026
Factor profile
Financially conservative
| Factor | Score |
|---|---|
| Quality | 46 out of 100 (Neutral). Business health — profits, returns, and consistency. Higher means a more durable company. |
| Growth | 41 out of 100 (Neutral). How fast sales and earnings are rising. Higher means the business is expanding faster. |
| Value | 69 out of 100 (Neutral). How cheap the stock looks for what you get. Higher means a more attractive price. |
| Safety | 76 out of 100 (Strong). Balance-sheet cushion and fewer red flags. Higher means less risk of a nasty surprise. |
| Momentum | 27 out of 100 (Weak). Recent share-price trend. Higher means buyers have been in control lately. |
Another way to look at it
A calmer look at both sides of the General Dynamics Corporation story
Consensus treats General Dynamics as a dependable defensive hold, yet it prices modest manufacturing productivity of 6.1% ROA and a 15.4% gross margin at an elevated 21.0 P/E and 14.8 EV/EBITDA.
The debate completely overlooks that company-sponsored R&D spending contracted 14.0% from $565 million in 2024 to $486 million in 2025, which directly threatens long-term technological competitiveness. Furthermore, the consensus relies on conflicting free cash flow metrics, citing $23.57 per share in the synthesis report versus $16.26 per share in the adversarial debate, obscuring true cash generation quality. Sequential top-line expansion has already stalled, with revenue falling from $14.38 billion in Q4 2025 to $14.09 billion in Q2 2026. With the share price trapped below both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages and delivering a -7.1% 3-month return, the market is actively penalizing operational stagnation that the consensus dismisses. Paying a 3.5 P/B multiple for an 8.2% net margin while innovation reinvestment declines creates an unfavorable risk-reward profile.
Company-sponsored R&D expenditures dropped 14.0% from $565 million in 2024 to $486 million in 2025, a structural reinvestment deficit ignored in the consensus evaluation.
Unreconciled reporting discrepancy between the synthesis report claiming $23.57 in TTM FCF per share and the adversarial debate citing $16.26 per share against the $344.23 share price.
Sequential revenue contraction from $14.38 billion in Q4 2025 to $14.09 billion in Q2 2026 contradicts the thesis of smooth backlog conversion and operational acceleration.
Treating $942,370 in net insider buying as a meaningful bullish indicator when it represents approximately 0.001% of the company's $93.13 billion market capitalization.
Assigning a 21.0 P/E and 14.8 EV/EBITDA multiple to a business generating an 8.2% net margin and 6.1% ROA with no demonstrated pricing power.
Extrapolating Gulfstream delivery acceleration without evidence of relief in capital-intensive manufacturing constraints, where gross margin sits at only 15.4%.
Latest quarter YoY revenue growth decelerates below 8.1%.
Gross margin contracts below 15.4%.
Cash after investing
See whether General Dynamics Corporation still makes cash after it spends to grow.
- Latest quarter YoY revenue growth decelerates below 8.1%.
- Gross margin contracts below 15.4%.
- Debt/Equity ratio increases above 0.35.
Monitor these triggers
3 checkpoints before the next earnings print
Revenue Growth (Latest Quarter YoY) against baseline of 8.1%
Net margin contracts below 8.2%.
Debt/Equity ratio increases above 0.35.
Revenue growth YoY drops below 8.1%.
For learning and research only — not investment advice. AlphaDog doesn’t hold stocks and isn’t your financial advisor.
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