FRVO · sample dossier
Fervo Energy Company Class A common stock
30/100
AgingGenerated Nov 7, 2026 · 11:00 AM UTC · 1 day ago
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EquityFervo Energy Company Class A common stock · XNAS
Decision context
Recommendation
Weighed down by weak Growth (0/100) and Quality (8/100) scores.
A cautious picture — if you own it, consider taking some off.
AlphaDog Fair Value
Executive thesis & key metrics
Executive Investment Thesis
Fervo Energy Company (FRVO) is a geothermal developer with a market capitalization of $2.66B trading at $9.03 with a negative gross margin of -145.5% and an EV/EBITDA multiple of -14.06. The Avoid verdict fits given a full-year YoY revenue contraction of -30.7%-$4.14 (four-quarter statements) free cash flow per share of -$4.14, and an Altman Z-score of 1.03 placing the company in the distress zone. The primary forensic risk is a Beneish M-score of -0.85 signaling manipulation risk alongside a 6-month price drop of -75.3%.
Key Metrics to Watch
What changed recently
No material changes found in the last 30 days.
Why this rating
Score 30 · Sell
Data through
AgingJun 30, 2026
Composite 30/100 — weak across most factors.
Levels unavailable — AlphaDog quantitative valuation model did not produce an estimate from comps or DCF
Re-evaluate if
- Net margin falls below -5.0% (was 0.0%)
Trim / reconsider if
- Gross margin falls below -196.4% (was -145.5%)
- Debt/Equity ratio rises above 0.11.
Dollar levels aren’t available for this run — the view above still stands.
A Calmer Look · Devil's Advocate
A second set of eyes on FRVO
The consensus Sell rating (30/100 score) fixates on an Altman Z-score of 1.03 and an extreme gross margin of -145.5%, but relies on standard operational metrics that structurally misdiagnose early-stage infrastructure developers.
May be overlooked
Misapplication of forensic models
The Altman Z of 1.03 and Beneish M-score of -0.85 are calibrated for mature industrial firms and produce false distress signals when applied to pre-commercial developers generating only $113k in quarterly revenue.
Unexamined asset-backing downside cushion
With Price/Book at 0.95 and Debt/Equity at 0.11, the bear case fails to evaluate tangible asset recovery value or project-level liquidation floors.
Omission of strategic partner project financing
The consensus ignores whether 35.7M-share holder Devon Energy will supply project-level debt or farm-in capital to halt the -$4.14 FCF per share depletion.
Expectations look stretched
Bulls extrapolate Q2 revenue growth of 85.2% as commercial traction, ignoring that an absolute top line of $113k leaves EV/EBITDA at -14.1 and unit economics at -145.5% gross margin.
Treating Debt/Equity of 0.11 as a permanent solvency shield ignores that a -$4.14 FCF per share burn rate will rapidly consume equity and invalidate the 0.95 Price/Book multiple.
Presuming institutional support from Devon Energy (35.7M shares) and Capricorn (34.2M shares) guarantees capital injection, despite each entity holding only 0.12% positions.
Gross margin improves above -145.5%.
Gross margin improves above -145.5%.
Monitor These Triggers
2 Checkpoints · Next PrintMarket context
Snapshot returns at report publication
1 month
-34.6%
3 months
-62.2%
6 months
-75.3%
1 year
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At a Glance
A mid-sized company has mixed momentum at unprofitable earnings.
Top Holders
As of Jun 30, 2026Financial trajectory
Financial Performance
Go deeper
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