FERG · sample dossier
Ferguson Enterprises Inc.
38/100
OutdatedGenerated Nov 7, 2026 · 11:00 AM UTC · 1 day ago
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EquityFerguson Enterprises Inc. · XNYS
Decision context
Recommendation
Weighed down by weak Growth (20/100) and Momentum (28/100) scores.
A cautious picture — if you own it, consider taking some off.
AlphaDog Fair Value
Executive thesis & key metrics
Executive Investment Thesis
[Unverified] Ferguson Enterprises Inc. distributes plumbing and infrastructure supplies with a market capitalization of $45.21B and trades at a trailing P/E of 23.00 with a gross margin of 30.6%. The valuation multiple is elevated given modest top-line revenue growth of 3.0% YoY and an EPS contraction of -3.4% YoY in the latest quarter. The single biggest operational risk is premium valuation exposure relative to peers—with EV/EBITDA at 16.82 compared to EXP at 10.7—coupled with a low Piotroski F-score of 3/9 and Debt/Equity of 1.11.
Key Metrics to Watch
What changed recently
No material changes found in the last 30 days.
Why this rating
Score 38 · Sell
Data through
OutdatedJun 30, 2026
A newer quarter has been reported and is not in these statements.
Composite 38/100 — weak across most factors.
Re-evaluate if
- Net margin falls below 5.1% (was 6.3%)
Trim / reconsider if
- Gross margin falls below 19.9% (was 30.6%)
Think of these dollars as a map of our value estimate for Sell — helpful context, not a reason to override the view.
A Calmer Look · Devil's Advocate
A second set of eyes on Ferguson Enterprises Inc.
The consensus 'Sell' verdict prematurely discounts Ferguson's underlying cash engine by over-indexing on a single quarter's -3.4% YoY EPS contraction.
May be overlooked
Fixating on the -3.4% YoY EPS decline ignores construction distribution seasonality and misses the sharp sequential recovery of 61.0% QoQ EPS expansion to $3.43 on $8.75B revenue.
Treating balance sheet leverage at 1.11 Debt/Equity as a critical constraint ignores that the Altman Z-score of 3.02 indicates robust solvency with low default risk.
Benchmarking FERG's 16.8 EV/EBITDA against EXP at 10.7 ignores scale-driven pricing power and defensive cash generation that yields $6.52 in TTM free cash flow per share.
Expectations look stretched
Bull reliance on a 1-month price rebound of 7.8% and reclaiming the 50-day moving average ignores that the stock remains below its 200-day moving average with negative 1-year returns of -6.1%.
Extrapolating modest 3.0% YoY top-line revenue growth as proof of structural expansion while net margin remains thin at 6.3%.
Bear over-confidence that $867,170 in net insider sales over three months indicates operational distress, despite representing less than 0.002% of FERG's $45.21B market capitalization.
[Unverified] Revenue growth YoY decelerates below 3.0%.
[Unverified] Revenue growth YoY decelerates below 3.0%.
Monitor These Triggers
2 Checkpoints · Next PrintMarket context
Snapshot returns at report publication
1 month
+7.8%
3 months
-11.4%
6 months
-3.2%
1 year
-6.1%
At a Glance
A large company has mixed momentum at fair pricing.
Top Holders
As of Jun 30, 2026Financial trajectory
Financial Performance
Go deeper
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