F · sample dossier
Ford Motor Company
23/100
FreshGenerated Oct 24, 2026 · 10:00 AM UTC · 1 hour ago
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EquityFord Motor Company · XNYS
Decision context
Recommendation
Downsides look heavier than upsides — we wouldn’t start a new position.
AlphaDog Fair Value
Market context
Snapshot returns at report publication
1 month
-7.9%
3 months
-21.0%
6 months
-6.3%
1 year
-6.7%
At a Glance
A large company is in a pullback at unprofitable earnings.
Top Holders
As of Jun 30, 2026Financial trajectory
Financial Performance
Executive thesis & key metrics
Executive Thesis
Ford Motor Company (F) is an automaker with a $46.26B market cap trading at $11.60 per share, generating a 7.1% TTM gross margin and $1.83 in TTM FCF per share.
Key Metrics to Watch
What changed recently
No material changes found in the last 30 days.
Why this rating
Score 23 · Avoid
Data through
FreshJun 30, 2026
Composite 23/100 — weak across most factors.
Re-evaluate if
- Net margin falls below -4.7% (was -3.9%)
- Debt/Equity declines below 4.57x while TTM EV/EBITDA compresses below 24.53x.
- TTM ROA rises above 0.3% and TTM gross margin expands above 7.1%.
Trim / reconsider if
- ROA falls below -9.7% (was 0.3%)
- Debt/Equity rises above 4.57x or TTM FCF per share drops below $1.83.
Think of these dollars as a map of our value estimate for Avoid — helpful context, not a reason to override the view.
A Calmer Look · Devil's Advocate
The prevailing 'Avoid' consensus and Bear victory treat Ford's 4.57x Debt/Equity ratio and 0.86 Altman Z-score as imminent bankruptcy signals without dissecting the structural reality of captive auto finance operations.
May be overlooked
The consensus treats the 4.57x Debt/Equity ratio and 24.53x EV/EBITDA multiple as pure corporate bloat, completely omitting how captive vehicle financing debt inflates enterprise value and distorts the 0.86 Altman Z-score.
The bull case relies on $1.83 TTM FCF per share as its core anchor without investigating if working capital timing or aggressive accruals—flagged by the 1.91 Beneish M-score—are artificially propping up cash flow while TTM net margin sits at -3.9%.
Both the debate and synthesis rely on Q1 and Q2 quarterly data ended 2026-06-30 (such as the +11.7% QoQ revenue rise to $48.30B and Q2 EPS of -$0.33), which is explicitly stale past the 90-day cutoff as of 2026-10-24.
Expectations look stretched
Bulls cite passive holdings by BlackRock (334.5M shares), Vanguard (255.5M shares), and State Street (194.0M shares) as a fundamental 'anchor', ignoring that index funds must hold the $46.26B market cap stock regardless of its 2/9 Piotroski F-score.
The synthesis report frames Alicia Boler Davis's 255,102-share option exercise on 2026-10-15 as a positive bull point, despite the ownership comment confirming overall 3-month insider posture is 'routine_neutral' with net activity of -13,363 shares ($0 USD net purchases).
The synthesis report assumes a certified pre-owned (CPO) initiative (cited in a 2026-10-22 article) and an expected earnings beat will arrest a -6.7% 1-year share decline, extrapolating a turnaround from media coverage despite a -3.8% YoY revenue contraction.
YoY revenue growth improves above -3.8% and TTM net margin recovers above -3.9%.
YoY revenue growth improves above -3.8% and TTM net margin recovers above -3.9%.
Monitor These Triggers
3 Checkpoints · Next PrintYoY revenue growth (currently -3.8%) and TTM net margin (currently -3.9%) to assess whether core profitability is stabilizing.
Go deeper
For learning and research only — not investment advice. AlphaDog doesn’t hold stocks and isn’t your financial advisor.
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